美國(guó)股票：看跌

????由于預(yù)計(jì)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還不能擺脫停滯狀態(tài),，高盛（Goldman Sachs）對(duì)美國(guó)股市的前景比較悲觀。該公司首席美國(guó)股票策略師大衛(wèi)?克斯汀預(yù)計(jì),，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)2012年底的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位是1,250點(diǎn),，比2011年底前一周的收盤點(diǎn)位僅高出0.4%。

????克斯汀近日在致客戶的報(bào)告中寫到:“高度的政治不確定性以及下行政策尾端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)讓我們相信,，股票投資者應(yīng)關(guān)注基本面,，建倉(cāng)時(shí)要做最壞的打算，抱最大的希望,?！?/p>

????由于歐洲決策層還遠(yuǎn)未解決地區(qū)債務(wù)危機(jī)，歐洲未來的走勢(shì)尚有待觀察,。但如果歐元真的解體,，克斯汀預(yù)計(jì)這可能將“抹掉股市25%的價(jià)值，將標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)拉低至900點(diǎn),?！?/p>

U.S. Stocks: Bear

????With the U.S. economy expected to remain stagnant for a while, Goldman Sachs offers a bleak outlook. The firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, predicts that the S&P 500 in 2012 will end at a relatively flat 1250 -- and a mere 0.4% higher than the index's closing level about a week before the end of 2011.

????"The high degree of political uncertainty coupled with downside policy tail risk drives our view that equity investors should focus on the underlying fundamentals and position portfolios for the worse while hoping for the best," Kostin wrote in a recent note to clients.

????It remains to be seen what will transpire in Europe, given the fact that officials are far from resolving the region's ongoing debt crisis. But if the collapse of the euro were to happen, Kostin believes that could "wipe 25% in value from stocks, driving the S&P 500 to 900."