????多倫多市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)CIBC World markets的大宗商品分析師彼得?布坎南說：“中國占全球銅需求超過40%,，其他基礎(chǔ)金屬的需求占比也相當(dāng)高,。我認(rèn)為未來一兩年下行風(fēng)險可能高于上行風(fēng)險?！?/p>

????布坎南稱,，金屬價格下跌“肯定會直接改善很多公司的盈利狀況”。他說,，中國是這個等式中重要的組成部分,，但歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況也同樣重要。

????蘇格蘭皇家銀行（Royal Bank of Scotland）駐倫敦的大宗商品分析師尼高斯?卡瓦利斯認(rèn)為,，金屬拋盤更多是投機(jī)性賣盤,，而不是供求基本面的問題。

????他說,，電纜電線等銅下游制造商今年早些時候還在苦苦掙扎,，勉強(qiáng)度日?？ㄍ呃拐f：“毫無疑問,，銅密集型行業(yè)現(xiàn)在的狀況已經(jīng)要好很多了?！?/p>

????但他警告稱,，隨著供應(yīng)狀況趨緊，2012年銅價可能會出現(xiàn)反彈,。他說：“我們預(yù)計中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將軟著陸,。”

????"China accounts for over 40% of global copper demand and a substantial proportion of other base metals as well," says Peter Buchanan, a commodities analyst at CIBC World markets in Toronto. "In the next year or two I think there is probably more downside risk than upside."

????Buchanan notes that a fall in metals prices "would certainly help the earnings of a large number of companies directly." China is an important part of the equation, but so is what happens in the European economy, Buchanan says.

????Nikos Kavalis, a commodity analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, says he believes the selloff in metals was more about speculators selling commodities rather than a fundamental issue of supply and demand.

????He says that manufacturers that use copper such as cable and wire makers were struggling to survive earlier in the year. 'Without a doubt, copper-intensive industries have it much better right now," Kavalis says.

????He warns, however, that he is expecting a rebound in copper prices in 2012 as the supply situation tightens. "We're expecting a soft landing in China," he says.