????一群聰明又有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的專業(yè)投資人士達(dá)成的共識(shí)為什么總是不對(duì)呢,？答案很簡(jiǎn)單：投資合伙企業(yè)是趨同思維的完美溫床。維基百科（Wikipedia）將趨同思維定義為：“一種發(fā)生在群體內(nèi)部的心理現(xiàn)象……為了盡量避免沖突,，群體成員沒(méi)有對(duì)其他人的想法和觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行批判性評(píng)估就達(dá)成了共識(shí),?！?/p>

????著名的趨同思維專家歐文?詹尼斯很好地闡述了風(fēng)投合伙企業(yè)為什么會(huì)助長(zhǎng)趨同思維的原因,。他說(shuō)，一些背景因素容易誘發(fā)趨同思維,，包括：

????1. 群體具有很強(qiáng)的凝聚力

????2. 群體與外界相對(duì)隔絕

????3. 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有失公正

????4. 缺乏有章可循的系統(tǒng)性規(guī)范

????5. 成員社會(huì)背景和意識(shí)形態(tài)的同質(zhì)化

????風(fēng)投合伙企業(yè)往往由凝聚力強(qiáng),、相對(duì)封閉的同質(zhì)性人群構(gòu)成——這正是趨同思維的理想溫床。

????如何能避免趨同思維,？只要自問(wèn)兩個(gè)問(wèn)題,，并盡可能不偏袒：

????How can it be that when a group of intelligent, seasoned investment professionals agree – they are often wrong? The answer is simple: Investment partnerships are the perfect breeding ground for groupthink. Groupthink, according to Wikipedia, is: "a psychological phenomenon that occurs within groups of people…. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative ideas and viewpoints."

????The reason venture partnerships foster groupthink is best articulated by Irving Janis, a pre-eminent researcher on groupthink. He suggests that certain contextual ingredients make groupthink more likely including:

????1. High Group Cohesiveness

????2. Group Insulation

????3. Lack of Impartial Leadership

????4. Lack of Norms Requiring Methodological Procedures

????5. Homogeneity of Members' Social Background and Ideology

????Venture partnerships are often cohesive, insulated, and homogeneous groups – a perfect breeding ground for groupthink.

????How do you protect against groupthink? I think you simply ask yourself two questions trying to be as impartial as possible: