????聽到這里,，我第二次被羊角面包噎住了。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都會同意這位朋友剛剛所說的話,；但他似乎沒有看到（可能性不大）或壓根就不關(guān)心（這種可能性更大）事情的另一面,。以歐洲第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體意大利為例，這個有著龐大的現(xiàn)代化工業(yè)基地的國家正遭遇貨幣（歐元）之傷——?dú)W元匯率高于意大利里拉在當(dāng)前情況下應(yīng)有的匯率,。但歐元區(qū)成員身份意味著意大利不能實(shí)行本幣貶值來緩解出口商壓力,。

????我委婉地反駁。我說,，我擔(dān)心的不是希臘，是意大利,，全球第三大債券市場,。周二早間，意大利債券收益率再度上行,，突破7% （之后歐洲央行再度干預(yù)壓低收益率）,。大到不能倒，大到救不了,。意大利的政府,，即便是在新總理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，會推動實(shí)施足夠的緊縮政策以避免違約嗎,？

????這時那位顧問開腔了,，說出了他眼中的、可能令人不快的真相,。這位顧問說,，不行也得行，因?yàn)椤按炙c(diǎn)講,，我們捏住了【希臘人和意大利人的】 命根子,。”

????沒錯——這就是當(dāng)前歐洲危機(jī)的本質(zhì),。德國,，當(dāng)然還有歐洲央行，相信 （或者更準(zhǔn)確地說是希望）,，出任意大利和希臘新任總理的兩位技術(shù)型官員——前歐盟委員馬里奧?蒙蒂（意大利）和曾就讀于麻省理工學(xué)院（MIT）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家盧卡斯?帕帕季莫斯（希臘總理）將撇開政治考量,，迫使憤怒的兩國民眾不管喜不喜歡，都要吞下他們開出的藥丸,。因?yàn)檫@是為了意大利和希臘好,。而且,，“我們捏住了他們的命根子。他們必須得按我們說的做,?！?/p>

????還是讓我們來看看幾個重要事實(shí)吧：歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，簡稱EFSF）的資金仍然嚴(yán)重不足（有人聽到“補(bǔ)充彈藥”的呼聲嗎,？）,；由于葡萄牙、意大利,、愛爾蘭和希臘（PIIG）四國的主權(quán)債務(wù)敞口,，歐洲銀行業(yè)的資本金嚴(yán)重不足（根據(jù)一項(xiàng)保守估算，我看到僅最大的20家銀行就需要3,700億歐元的新股本）,。而且就在周一,，德國央行（Bundesbank）行長延斯?魏德曼告訴《金融時報》（Financial Times），歐洲央行無論如何都不會戴上“直升機(jī)伯南克”的螺旋槳帽子,，充當(dāng)“最后貸款人”,。

????真相總是讓人警醒，而與我談話的兩位先生所說的這些很大程度上代表了德國人對當(dāng)前歐洲政治現(xiàn)實(shí)的看法,。我們捏住了他們的命根子,。

????我點(diǎn)點(diǎn)頭，然后又一次盡可能禮貌地說,，從歐洲歷史來看,，不管是近些年，還是再早一些,，政治“現(xiàn)實(shí)”似乎總是“易燃易爆品”,。

????說完我們互致午安。在這個孟買的炎熱午后,，這場談話讓人猛然清醒,，歐元區(qū)的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況益發(fā)清晰了：這場危機(jī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢已經(jīng)夠惡劣了，而政治形勢卻有過之而無不及,。

????Here was my 'choking on my croissant' moment number two. Most economists would agree with what my friend at the meeting had said; but he seemed either oblivious (not likely) or simply unconcerned (more likely) with the flip side of what he had just uttered. Italy, to take the third-largest economy in Europe, one with a sizeable and modern industrial base, is stuck with a currency -- the euro -- which is stronger than the old lira would be under current circumstances. But membership in the euro zone means Italy can't devalue to bring some relief to its exporters.

????I pushed back politely. Look, I said, it's not Greece I'm worried about. It's Italy. Third-biggest bond market in the world. Bond spreads this morning again heading over 7% (before the ECB intervened this to push them back down again.) Too big to fail, too big to save. Is the government, even one under a new Prime Minister, going to push through sufficient austerity to avoid a default?

????Now the consultant perked up, speaking what he too believes to be the unvarnished truth. They have to, he said, because "to be blunt about it, we have them [both the Greeks and the Italians] by the balls."

????And make no mistake – that, in essence, is where the European crisis stands. The Germans -- and the ECB along with them -- believe (perhaps hope is the better word) that two new technocratic prime ministers, former EU commissioner Mario Monti in Italy and MIT-trained economist Lucas Papademos in Greece, will cast politics aside and force angry populations in both countries to take their medicine, whether they like it or not. Because it's for their own good, you understand. And besides, "we have them by the balls. They have to do what we say."

????Let's set aside, for the moment, a couple of important facts: the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) remains woefully underfunded (anyone hear the sound of the 'bazooka?'); the European banks are vastly undercapitalized given their exposure to PIIG sovereign debt (the top 20 banks, according to one conservative estimate, I've seen need 370 billion euros of new equity.) And just yesterday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told the Financial Times that under no circumstances would the ECB don its Helicopter Ben propeller hat and act as "lender of last resort."

????Clarity is always refreshing, and what my interlocutor had said is very much the German perception of current political reality in Europe. We have them by the balls.

????I nodded and, again as politely as I could, said that given European history, both recent and not so recent, that "reality" seemed "politically combustible.''

????With that we bade each other good afternoon, a central point about the euro zone reinforced with a thud on a hot afternoon in Mumbai: The economics of this crisis are bad enough. The politics are worse.