德國(guó)維持繁榮必須保住歐元
????將弱國(guó)趕出歐元區(qū)并不能解決歐洲大陸的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,。這樣魯莽的舉動(dòng)只會(huì)給歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)(尤其是出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)的德國(guó))帶來(lái)更多的傷害,而不是好處,。同心協(xié)力,,共同分擔(dān)痛苦似乎是最好的選擇,但現(xiàn)在還不清楚歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)到底愿意承擔(dān)多少痛苦,。 ????歐債危機(jī)曠日持久,,但歐元區(qū)的完整性一直被核心成員國(guó)視為神圣不可侵犯。希臘這樣揮霍無(wú)度的成員國(guó)應(yīng)該被趕出這個(gè)由17個(gè)成員國(guó)組成的共同貨幣聯(lián)盟,,這樣的想法很快遭到了德國(guó),、法國(guó)等核心成員國(guó)主流政客們的否決。 ????但如今在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上已開(kāi)始顯露分歧,。兩周前,,德法領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們開(kāi)始暗示可以預(yù)見(jiàn)希臘獲準(zhǔn)退出歐元區(qū)的情形。上周,,法國(guó)總統(tǒng)薩科齊更進(jìn)一步,,甚至聲稱可以預(yù)見(jiàn)一個(gè)“雙速”歐洲的出現(xiàn)。屆時(shí)歐盟強(qiáng)國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將更加同步,,而弱國(guó)將被遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)地落在后頭,。 ????交易員們將此解讀為可能出現(xiàn)一個(gè)縮水的歐元區(qū),即歐元區(qū)的核心成員國(guó)聯(lián)合起來(lái)組建一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的財(cái)政貨幣聯(lián)盟,,而邊緣國(guó)家將退出歐元,,深陷債務(wù)泥沼。表面上,,這似乎是針對(duì)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)愈演愈烈的最佳解決方案,。核心成員國(guó)一直以來(lái)牢牢地看著自家的錢袋子,它們不必為了拯救只有十年歷史的歐元而出手救助邊緣國(guó)家,。 ????當(dāng)然,,事情沒(méi)有那么簡(jiǎn)單。過(guò)去十年,,邊緣國(guó)家欠下的債務(wù)多是向總部位于核心國(guó)家的銀行借的,。關(guān)于硬違約可能給歐元區(qū)脆弱的銀行體系帶來(lái)怎樣的沖擊,之前已有太多討論,。就算主權(quán)債務(wù)沒(méi)有壓垮它們,,邊緣國(guó)家民眾欠下的幾萬(wàn)億歐元貸款也會(huì)達(dá)到同樣的效果。 ????對(duì)于普通的德國(guó)民眾,,這聽(tīng)起來(lái)可能非常不公,。為什么他們必須要擔(dān)起這些重任,既要拯救像希臘這樣的整個(gè)國(guó)家,,還要拯救總部位于巴黎,、阿姆斯特丹等地有錢的大銀行,?鑒于這樣的現(xiàn)實(shí),有些人可能會(huì)問(wèn),,為什么德國(guó)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)一場(chǎng)更大規(guī)模的,、類似于“占領(lǐng)華爾街”(Occupy Wall Street)那樣的運(yùn)動(dòng),憤怒的德國(guó)失業(yè)青年們也沒(méi)有去法蘭克福的公園里露營(yíng)抗議,。 |
????Booting out the weak members of the eurozone won't solve the continent's economic problems. Such a bold move would cause more harm than good for core members of the euro, most notably, export-driven Germany. A coordinated effort to share the pain seems to be the best option out there, but it's unclear how much pain the core eurozone countries are willing to take. ????The integrity of the eurozone has been considered sacrosanct by its core members throughout the long running European sovereign debt crisis. The idea that a profligate member of the zone, like Greece, would need to be kicked out of the 17- member common currency was quickly dismissed by mainstream politicians of core member states, like Germany and France. ????But cracks in that resolve have started to form. Two weeks ago, the leaders of Germany and France hinted that they could envision a scenario in which Greece would be allowed to leave the common currency. French President Nicholas Sarkozy took the issue a bit further last week when he said he could envision a "two-speed" Europe, where strong members of the European Union would grow closer while weak members would be left to putter in the background. ????Traders have interpreted this to mean that a smaller eurozone may be on the horizon, one where the core members of the euro unite to form a strong fiscal and monetary union, while the peripheral nations exit the common currency and drown in debt. On the surface this seems like the best solution to a growing European economic crisis that shows no signs of abating. The core members have been good stewards of their money and shouldn't have to bail out the periphery just to save a 10-year-old common currency. ????Of course, things aren't that simple. Most of the debt that the periphery has racked up over the past decade has been financed by banks that are headquartered in the core countries. There has been a lot of discussion surrounding what a hard default could do to the region's fragile banking system. If the sovereign debt didn't crush them, then the trillions of euros in private loans that were extended to people living in the periphery would do the trick. ????To the average German citizen this probably seems very unfair. Why should they have to shoulder the heavy burdens of not only bailing out whole countries, like Greece, but also big rich banks headquartered in places like Paris and Amsterdam? Given this stark reality, some may question why there isn't a larger "Occupy Wall Street"-like movement made up of angry and unemployed young Germans camping out in Frankfurt parks. |