????擺在德國面前的是一道難得讓人頭痛的難題，其選擇不僅會(huì)塑造歐洲共同體的未來,，還將影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)?，F(xiàn)在歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)已經(jīng)蔓延到了多個(gè)規(guī)模較大的國家，無法再用臨時(shí)援助手段解決,，因此德國必須兩害相權(quán)擇其輕：要么改變長期堅(jiān)持的反對(duì)態(tài)度,，為麻煩纏身的歐元區(qū)伙伴國家的債務(wù)提供擔(dān)保，這將使納稅人的利益承擔(dān)巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),；要么放棄歐元區(qū),，逃避保護(hù)弱國的義務(wù)，這會(huì)使德國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長引擎突然停止,。德國是世界最高效,、最龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一，而它現(xiàn)在面臨著上述威脅,，這正是全球市場震蕩不休的主要原因之一,。

????這種歷史性的兩難處境幾周之前才浮出水面。當(dāng)時(shí)投資者開始攻擊意大利和西班牙政府債券,，使其收益率屢創(chuàng)新高,。意大利債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)極為龐大，而西班牙財(cái)政赤字驚人,，因此,，兩國都無力繼續(xù)承擔(dān)如此驚人的收益率。歐洲央行（The European Central Bank）不得不出手救急，在一個(gè)周內(nèi)買入了多達(dá)100億美元的兩國債券,，將收益率壓了下來,。歐洲央行已經(jīng)明確表示，此種買入行動(dòng)只是短期舉措,。因此,，歐盟正在將原本用于援助希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭的歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（EFSF）的規(guī)模翻倍,，擴(kuò)大到6,200億美元,，并修改其章程以放寬其權(quán)限，允許它在公開市場購入政府債券,。

????如果債券市場繼續(xù)攻擊意大利和西班牙債券（這種可能性相當(dāng)大）,，盡管歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金規(guī)模已經(jīng)有所擴(kuò)大，但憑它擁有的資源仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠拯救兩國債券,。唯一的長期解決方案是發(fā)行一種新型債券,，由歐元區(qū)17個(gè)國家一起擔(dān)保，這將保證歐元的存續(xù),，給市場吃下定心丸,。這種歐洲債券發(fā)行后，可用于為各國債務(wù)提供一定比例的支持,。舉例來說,，跟據(jù)該計(jì)劃，可以用完全安全的歐洲債券覆蓋希臘,、愛爾蘭或法國50%的借款,，剩下的一半則由各國政府發(fā)行本國政府債券來解決。

????歐洲債券的收益率降低之后,，借款利息的總體成本將會(huì)下降,，從而緩解這些國家的預(yù)算壓力。如此一來,，各國發(fā)行的非歐洲債券看起來也會(huì)安全得多,，至少比他們現(xiàn)在的主權(quán)債券好不少。

????可是,，迄今為止德國堅(jiān)決地反對(duì)歐洲債券解決方案,。該方案可能會(huì)根據(jù)各國國民收入的多少來決定其擔(dān)保歐元債券的額度，由于德國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）相當(dāng)于整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的40%,，其公民將被迫承擔(dān)稅收大幅上漲的壓力,，擔(dān)保其他國家的違約情形。德國總理默克爾不斷強(qiáng)調(diào),，這些國家現(xiàn)在的窘境純屬自討苦吃,，完全是這些國家的政府不負(fù)責(zé)任,，大肆借貸,、大手大腳所致,。

????除非德國改變態(tài)度，否則歐元區(qū)終將解體,。至于如何分家則尚未可知,，南歐國家或許會(huì)恢復(fù)本國的貨幣，留下北方的德國,、奧地利,、芬蘭、荷蘭或許還有法國,，組成一個(gè)縮水版的歐元區(qū),；也可能是德國選擇主動(dòng)退出，用本國貨幣取代歐元,，比方說發(fā)行“新馬克”,，這將使其擺脫救援他國的負(fù)擔(dān)——德國國內(nèi)對(duì)此早已怨聲載道。

????Germany is facing a maddeningly difficult choice that could shape the future not just of the European community, but the world economy. Now that the European debt crisis is spreading to nations far too big for temporary bailouts, Germany must decide between two extremely unattractive options. It must either abandon its stubborn resistance to guaranteeing the debts of ailing eurozone partners, at great risk to its taxpayers. Or, it can escape sheltering the weak by abandoning the eurozone. That would bring the German growth engine to a sudden halt. The threat to one of the world's leanest and largest economies is a major reason world markets are now in turmoil.

????The historic dilemma arose just a few weeks ago, when investors attacked Italian and Spanish government bonds, pushing rates to levels that made their big debt loads, in the case of Italy, and yawning deficits -- that's Spain -- unsustainable. The European Central Bank came to the rescue, pushing rates lower by purchasing as much as $10 billion a week in their sovereign bonds. The ECB is making it clear that those purchases will be short-lived. So the EU is doubling the size of the European Financial Stabilization Facility, the bailout fund that supports Greece, Portugal and Ireland, to $620 billion, and expanding the EFSF's charter to allow purchasing government bonds in the open market.

????Even at its new size, the EFSF won't remotely marshal the resources needed to save Italy and Spain if bond vigilantes keep attacking their debt, an excellent possibility. The only long-term solution, the fix that would calm markets by assuring the euro's survival, is a new type of securities backed by all 17 countries in the eurozone. These eurobonds could be issued to finance a fixed portion of each nation's debt. For example, the regime would allow Greece, Ireland or France to cover 50% of their total borrowings with totally safe eurobonds, and the other half with their own government securities.

????Since the total interest costs would fall because of low rates on the eurobonds, the pressure on their budgets would recede. So the non-eurobonds they issue would look a lot safer than their sovereign debt looks today.

????But so far, Germany adamantly opposes the eurobond solution. It's probable that the nations would guarantee those bonds in proportion to their national income. Since Germany accounts for 40% of the eurozone's GDP, its citizens would suffer big tax increases to cover defaults by nations that, as Chancellor Merkel keeps pointing out, brought on their own woes through reckless borrowing and spending.

????Unless Germany changes course, the eurozone will dissolve. It's not clear how the split would happen. Southern countries might restore their own currencies, leaving a northern group of Germany, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and possibly France in a shrunken eurozone. Or Germany could go its own way by replacing the euro with, say, the Neue Mark, and in the process freeing itself from the shadow of wildly unpopular bailouts.