蘋(píng)果iPad銷(xiāo)量下滑,出了什么問(wèn)題?
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????蘋(píng)果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫(kù)克上周二向分析師們表示:“iPad的銷(xiāo)量達(dá)到了我們的預(yù)期,,但我們知道很多人對(duì)iPad的期望要更高?!?/p> ????這不過(guò)是客套話,,庫(kù)克真正想說(shuō)的是,他知道現(xiàn)在是怎么回事,,即便大多數(shù)蘋(píng)果分析師和商業(yè)媒體一無(wú)所知,。 ????(素來(lái)喜歡對(duì)蘋(píng)果落井下石的新聞網(wǎng)站Business Insider,接連發(fā)表頭條文章“蘋(píng)果……iPad銷(xiāo)量再次不佳”以及“只有IBM能提振蘋(píng)果iPad銷(xiāo)量”,。) ????上周三上午,,華爾街緩過(guò)神來(lái)了。對(duì)于iPad銷(xiāo)量為何似乎已經(jīng)見(jiàn)頂,,數(shù)位分析師對(duì)客戶給出了自己的解釋,。其中,投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩?蒙斯特解釋如下: ????在標(biāo)題為“iPad怎么了,?”的段落中,,蒙斯特寫(xiě)道:“我們認(rèn)為iPad銷(xiāo)量下滑有三個(gè)原因。” ????? 首先,,我們認(rèn)為,,平板電腦市場(chǎng)出貨量增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自低端市場(chǎng),而iPad定價(jià)較高,。 ????? 其次,,我們認(rèn)為,蘋(píng)果在前四年里賣(mài)出2.25億部iPad,,已占據(jù)了容易攻克的那部分高端平板電腦市場(chǎng),。蒂姆?庫(kù)克在收益電話會(huì)議上表示,前四年iPad的銷(xiāo)量超出了他們的預(yù)期,,這或許表明高端市場(chǎng)正趨于飽和,。 ????? 再次,鑒于iPad沒(méi)有補(bǔ)貼,,其替換周期往往比iPhone要長(zhǎng),。 ????蒙斯特稱(chēng),IBM計(jì)劃銷(xiāo)售并為企業(yè)級(jí)iPad提供服務(wù)有可能扭轉(zhuǎn)局面,。但他認(rèn)為,,情況在好轉(zhuǎn)之前可能會(huì)變得更糟,特別是如果蘋(píng)果在今秋發(fā)布5.5英寸的大屏iPhone,,很可能會(huì)與iPad搶奪市場(chǎng),。 ????史蒂夫?喬布斯有句名言:“如果你自己不革自己的命,別人會(huì)動(dòng)手革你的命,?!辫b于iPhone的利潤(rùn)率比iPad高,iPhone搶占iPad的市場(chǎng)估計(jì)是喬布斯樂(lè)見(jiàn)的事,。 ????更新:分析師賈恩?道森稱(chēng),,iPad業(yè)務(wù)每年帶來(lái)的營(yíng)收約為300億美元,比麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)或時(shí)代華納(Time Warner)公司全年的營(yíng)收都高,。 ????科技媒體GigaOm的凱文?托福爾在《iPad銷(xiāo)量放緩為何沒(méi)有令蘋(píng)果驚訝》一文中寫(xiě)道:“抱歉,,我不會(huì)為蘋(píng)果營(yíng)收300億美元的iPad銷(xiāo)量放緩哭泣?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:項(xiàng)航 |
????“iPad sales met our expectations,” Tim Cook told analysts Tuesday, “but we realize they didn’t meet many of yours.” ????That’s a polite way of saying that he knew what was going on, even if most Apple analysts and much of the business press were clueless. ????(Business Insider, always happy to stick a knife in Apple and twist it, ran back-to back-headlines: “Apple … Whiffed On iPad Sales Again” and “Only IBM Can Revive Apple’s iPad Sales.”) ????By Wednesday morning, Wall Street had come around. Several analysts offered clients their own explanation for why iPad sales seem to have peaked. Here’s Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster: ????“We think there are three reasons for the declines in iPad,” he wrote in a paragraph headed “What’s wrong with the iPad?” ????? First, we believe that the majority of tablet market unit growth is coming from the lower end of the market and iPads are priced higher. ????? Second, we believe the low hanging fruit in the high-end tablet market has been captured with Apple selling 225 million iPads over the first four years. Tim Cook commented on the earnings call that the adoption of the iPad over the first four years has been better than they were expecting, perhaps suggesting the high end is becoming saturated. ????? Lastly, given iPads are not subsidized, the replacement cycles tend to be longer compared to an iPhone. ????IBM’s plan to sell and service enterprise iPads could turn things around, Munster suggests. But he thinks they might get worse before they get better, especially if Apple releases an iPhone this fall with 5.5-inch diagonal screen — big enough to cannibalize iPad sales. ????Steve Jobs famously said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” And because iPhone profit margins are better than the iPad’s, that’s the kind of cannibalization Jobs would have loved.. ????UPDATE: According to Jan Dawson, the iPad is generating revenues at a rate of about $30 billion a year, bigger than McDonald’s or Time Warner. ????“Excuse me,” writes GigaOm’s Kevin Tofel in Why slowing iPad sales didn’t surprise Apple, “if I don’t shed any tears for Apple’s $30 billion iPad problem.” |
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