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????摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）最近換人了,。

????長(zhǎng)期追蹤蘋果（Apple）的分析師馬克?莫斯科維茨離職了。頂替他位置的人是電信分析師羅德?哈爾,，他認(rèn)為,，他的想法價(jià)值630億美元。

????他在上周二寫給客戶的第一封投資報(bào)告中稱,，蘋果基本上掌控了售價(jià)超過1,000美元手提電腦的市場(chǎng),。據(jù)估算，蘋果在北美市場(chǎng)的占有率為68%,，在西歐市場(chǎng)的占有率為49%,，而在全球市場(chǎng)的占有率為36%。

????但據(jù)哈爾稱,，手提電腦的甜點(diǎn)（上表紅色框中部分）恰好處于1000美元價(jià)格之下：2013年售價(jià)為500至1,000美元的手提電腦發(fā)貨量近1億部,，約占當(dāng)年市場(chǎng)總發(fā)貨量的55%。

????哈爾認(rèn)為，只要給iPad配上鍵盤,，蘋果每年就有可能從這個(gè)市場(chǎng)賺取最高630億美元的收入,。他將此稱為“iAnywhere”解決方案。

????“隨著一些iPad用戶用這種設(shè)備代替手提電腦,，我們相信,，大多數(shù)人將iPad用作是手提電腦或桌面電腦的補(bǔ)充設(shè)備。如果iAnywhere解決方案能夠讓用戶將iPad既能用作個(gè)人電腦,，也能作為平板電腦靈活使用,，我們認(rèn)為，很多人將選擇只購(gòu)買一個(gè)設(shè)備,。我們還認(rèn)為,，當(dāng)前從經(jīng)銷商處購(gòu)買戴爾（Dell）等低價(jià)電腦的很多用戶將轉(zhuǎn)而選擇使用蘋果產(chǎn)品。

????哈爾估計(jì),，惠普（Hewlett-Packard）是500-1,000美元電腦甜點(diǎn)區(qū)間的重要生產(chǎn)商,，隨后依次為聯(lián)想（Lenovo） (16%)、戴爾(14%),、華碩（ASUS）(12%)和宏碁（Acer） (10%),。

????哈爾沒有提到的一家硬件制造商是微軟（Microsoft）。鑒于微軟出售Surface系列平板電腦,，這個(gè)遺漏很奇怪,，因?yàn)檫@款產(chǎn)品聽起來非常像他建議蘋果制造的那種產(chǎn)品。自2013年夏季推出之后,，微軟的Surface平板電腦表現(xiàn)喜憂參半,。據(jù)GeekWire報(bào)道稱，截至3013年6月30日,，Surface銷售總收入達(dá)8.53億美元,。這個(gè)數(shù)額幾乎等同于微軟公司在2013年7月對(duì)未售出Surface RT電腦進(jìn)行的 減記數(shù)額9億美元。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????There's been a changing of the guard at J.P. Morgan.

????Long-time Apple (AAPL) analyst Mark Moskowitz is out. Taking his place is telecom analyst Rod Hall, who brings with him what he believes is a $63-billion idea.

????Apple, he wrote in an inaugural note to clients Tuesday, basically owns the market for laptops priced above $1,000. It's got an estimated 68% market share of the North American market, a 49% share in Western Europe and a 36% share globally.

????But according to Hall, the sweet spot for laptops, as indicated by red rectangle in the attached chart, sits just below that price point: In the $500-to-$1,000 range, into which nearly 100 million laptops -- 55% of the total market -- shipped in 2013.

????Apple could make as much as a $63 billion a year in that market, Hall argues, if it would just put a keyboard on the iPad. He calls it Apple's "iAnywhere" solution.

????"While some iPad users are replacing laptops with the device we believe that most use the iPad as a supplemental device to either a laptop or desktop PC. If iAnywhere allowed these users to flexibly use an iPad as both a PC and a Tablet we believe that many would elect to simply own one device. We also believe that many users currently purchasing lower priced laptops from vendors like Dell would choose to switch to Apple."

????Hewlett-Packard is the big player in the $500-$1,000 sweet spot, Hall estimates, followed by Lenovo (16%), Dell (14%), ASUS (12%) and Acer (10%).

????One hardware manufacturer Hall doesn't mention is Microsoft (MSFT) -- a curious omission considering that Microsoft sells a family of machines -- the Surfaces -- that sounds a lot like the one he's suggesting Apple make. Since they were introduced in the summer of 2013, Microsoft's Surface hybrids have met with mixed success. According to GeekWire, total Surface revenue reached $853 million on June 30, 2013. That's almost as much as the $900 million write-downthe company took in July 2013 for unsold Surface RTs.