美國(guó)需要再來(lái)一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)
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????我曾經(jīng)期待在2012年糟糕的選舉結(jié)束后領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們能開(kāi)展理性的對(duì)話。結(jié)果我還是太天真了,。民主黨人見(jiàn)事態(tài)不好就假裝接近共和黨人,，但實(shí)際上他們沒(méi)有進(jìn)行真正的對(duì)話。現(xiàn)在,，面對(duì)利比亞班加西（Benghazi）使館遇襲,、國(guó)稅局（IRS）不當(dāng)審查保守團(tuán)體和媒體竊聽(tīng)這些丑聞，共和黨人甚至都懶得和顏悅色,。 ????你可能會(huì)說(shuō),，別這么激動(dòng),。股指創(chuàng)新高、房?jī)r(jià)復(fù)蘇,、企業(yè)利潤(rùn)強(qiáng)勁，還有什么能引起危機(jī)呢,？ ????首先,，我們有大而不倒的銀行，它們?nèi)砸蕾囉诙唐谌谫Y市場(chǎng),，而這個(gè)市場(chǎng)有可能像2008和2009年那樣迅速冰封,。一些人，包括我在《財(cái)富》（Fortune）雜志的同事希拉?貝爾,，都認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在的政府有能力處理這個(gè)問(wèn)題,。我尊重但不同意這一見(jiàn)解。 ????國(guó)債上限,，據(jù)推測(cè)在9月前不會(huì)提高,，也有可能轉(zhuǎn)變成災(zāi)難。如果我們這次再度陷入危機(jī)邊緣,，有可能引起美國(guó)國(guó)債持有國(guó)的恐慌,，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)利率上漲過(guò)高、股價(jià)下跌,，從而引發(fā)金融恐慌,。 ????我不希望見(jiàn)到危機(jī)，我也希望我們所謂的聰明領(lǐng)導(dǎo)們?cè)谖C(jī)暴發(fā)前能振作,。但我絕對(duì)不會(huì)指望他們能力挽狂瀾,。這是他們的不幸，也是我們的不幸,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：默默 |
????I had expected our leaders to have rational conversations after the poisonous 2012 elections were over. I was naive. The Democrats, scenting blood, pretended to reach out to Republicans, but really didn't. Now, smelling blood over Benghazi, the IRS, and media phone records, Republicans aren't even pretending to be playing nice. ????Calm down, you say. Stocks are at all-time highs, house prices have recovered, and corporate profits are strong. What could possibly cause a crisis? ????For starters, we still have too-big-to-fail banks that depend on short-term financial markets, which could dry up in an instant, as in 2008-09. Some, including my Fortune colleague Sheila Bair, think the government now has the tools to deal with this. I respectfully disagree. ????The debt-ceiling question, supposedly on hold until September, has disaster potential too. If we slip over the brink this time, it could spook foreign buyers, run interest rates way up, run stocks down, and spark a financial panic. ????I don't want to see a crisis, and I hope our alleged leaders, who aren't stupid, bestir themselves before one strikes. But I sure wouldn't count on it. Too bad for them. Too bad for us. |
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