蘋果擺平中國(guó)媒體的代價(jià)
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????不久前，蘋果公司（Apple）公布季報(bào)后,，我們接觸到的幾乎所有分析師均指出,，蘋果公司37.5%的毛利率只達(dá)到了最低預(yù)期。分析師預(yù)測(cè)它的毛利率將在37.5%至38.5%之間,。毛利率被用于衡量一家公司將銷售轉(zhuǎn)變成利潤(rùn)的效率,。 ????對(duì)此，分析師們給出了各種解釋,，但大多都將利潤(rùn)減少歸因于來自三星（Samsung）和其他安卓（Android）智能手機(jī)與平板電腦制造商日益激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。 ????不過,，還有一個(gè)更簡(jiǎn)單的答案：中國(guó)。 ????筆者并不清楚無(wú)意中提出這種觀點(diǎn)的第一個(gè)人是誰(shuí),，因?yàn)槿A爾街的分析師們從來不會(huì)承認(rèn)獨(dú)家新聞來自競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,。 ????? 數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏在一篇名為“補(bǔ)倉(cāng)2”的博客中提到這種觀點(diǎn)，文章的時(shí)間為4月25日,，星期四凌晨2:38,。 ????? 當(dāng)天上午晚些時(shí)候，富國(guó)銀行集團(tuán)（Wells Fargo）的梅納德?阿姆在一份客戶報(bào)告中提供了相同的解釋,。 ????? 五天以后,，即4月30日星期二，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂也發(fā)表了與此有關(guān)的文章,。 ????這種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為：在上個(gè)財(cái)季的最后一天,，為了讓連續(xù)兩周每天都對(duì)蘋果口誅筆伐的中國(guó)媒體滿意，蒂姆?庫(kù)克出面向中國(guó)消費(fèi)者道歉,，同時(shí)還修改了保修與返修政策——如將在中國(guó)參加維修的iPhone手機(jī)保修期延長(zhǎng)一年。 ????與此同時(shí),，在提交給美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)（SEC）的Form 10-Q季度報(bào)表中,，蘋果公司登記了4.14億美元所謂的應(yīng)計(jì)保修開支，對(duì)個(gè)別未提及的改變“服務(wù)政策和其他估算保修成本”所產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行了解釋,。而這4.14億美元直接來自上個(gè)季度iPhone手機(jī)所帶來的收入,，使公司的總體毛利率下降了1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。 ????摩根士丹利的休伯蒂估計(jì),，如果不是由于中國(guó)媒體的攻勢(shì)和庫(kù)克的回應(yīng),，蘋果公司的毛利率可能在38.4%左右——恰好在其指導(dǎo)范圍的上限。 ????如果蘋果公布的是更高的利潤(rùn)率,，市場(chǎng)第二天又會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣的反應(yīng)呢,？對(duì)此，我們可能永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法知道答案,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓 |
????After Apple's (AAPL) quarterly report last week nearly every analyst we heard from pointed out that the company's 37.5% gross margin -- the measure of how efficiently a company turns sales into profits -- was at very bottom of its 37.5%-to-38.5% forecast range. ????The analysts offered a variety explanations, but most attributed the reduced margins to increased competition from Samsung and other manufacturers of Android smartphones and tablets. ????But there's a simpler answer: China. ????I don't know who hit on this theory first, because Wall Street analysts never credit their competitors' scoops. ????? Asymco's Horace Dediu had it in a post called Margin Call 2 that was time-stamped Thursday, April 25 at 2:38 a.m. ????? Wells Fargo's Maynard Um offered the same explanation in a note to clients issued later that morning. ????? Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty wrote about it on Tuesday April 30, five days later. ????The theory is this: On the last day of the quarter Tim Cook, to appease government-owned media outlets that for two weeks had been attacking Apple on a daily basis, issued an apology to his Chinese customers and changed Apple's warranty and return policies -- among other things, extending the warranties on any iPhone brought in for repair in China for a full year. ????At the same time, according to the company's SEC Form 10-Q, Apple booked $414 million in so-called warranty accruals to account for the impact of changes to certain unnamed "service policies and other estimated warranty costs." That $414 million came directly out of last quarter's iPhone revenue and reduced the company's overall gross margin by nearly 1 percentage point. ????Morgan Stanley's Huberty estimates that if it weren't for China's media campaign and Cook's response, Apple would have reported a gross margin of approximately 38.4% -- just shy of the top of its guidance range. ????How the market would have reacted the next day to the higher margins, we will never know. |
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