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????人們常常忘了，就在六年前,，iPod還是蘋果公司（Apple）最大的搖錢樹,。2007年第一季度，iPod的銷售額占蘋果公司收入的48％以上,。而現(xiàn)在,，在蘋果季度財(cái)報(bào)中挑大梁的變成了iPhone、iPad和Mac電腦,，iPod則幾乎成了個(gè)可有可無的小角色,，在蘋果六個(gè)收入來源中，名列倒數(shù)第二位,。它的銷售收入排在iTunes之后,，配件產(chǎn)品之前。

????上圖中最后一項(xiàng)是根據(jù)54位蘋果分析師——31位華爾街專業(yè)分析師以及23位業(yè)余分析師——提交的iPod單品銷量估值的中位數(shù)（620萬部）繪制,。分析師們一直預(yù)測(cè),，自iPhone和iPod touch推出以來的趨勢(shì)將繼續(xù)延續(xù)：經(jīng)典款iPod的核心業(yè)務(wù)日益被iOS設(shè)備吞并。

????這是一個(gè)產(chǎn)品顛覆的經(jīng)典案例,，只不過顛覆iPod這顆搖錢樹的不是別人,，正是蘋果公司自己。

????根據(jù)顛覆理論,，蘋果公司的工程師現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該做的是發(fā)明未來將吞并iPhone的產(chǎn)品,。

????下表列出了迄今我們的分析師小組中各分析師提交的iPod單品銷量預(yù)估值。其中,，華爾街專業(yè)分析師給出的數(shù)值（平均預(yù)估值為622萬部）略高于業(yè)余分析師們給出的平均估值（615萬部）,。待蘋果于4月23日?qǐng)?bào)告其2013年第二財(cái)季收入時(shí)，我們將看到誰的估值與實(shí)際銷量最接近,。

????再次感謝Posts at Eventide的羅伯特?保羅?雷濤帶來獨(dú)立蘋果分析師組織Braeburn Group的數(shù)據(jù),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????It's easy to forget that only six years ago the iPod was Apple's (AAPL) biggest money maker, generating (in Q1 2007) more than 48% of the company's revenue. Now the iPod is almost an afterthought in quarterly reports dominated by the iPhone, iPad and Mac -- second-to-last among Apple's six revenue streams, below iTunes and above Accessories.

????The last entry in the chart above was drawn using the median estimate of iPod unit sales (6.2 million) submitted by 54 Apple analysts -- 31 Wall Street professionals and 23 amateurs. They all expect the trend that began with the launch of the iPhone and the iPod touch to continue: More and more of the original iPod's core business absorbed by iOS devices.

????It's a classic case of product disruption, except in this case a company disrupted its own cash cow.

????According to disruption theory, what Apple's engineers should be doing now is inventing the product that will absorb the iPhone.

????Below: The individual iPod unit sales estimates submitted so far by our panel of analysts. In this instance, the pros (with an average estimate of 6.22 million) are slightly more bullish than the amateurs (6.15 million). We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2013 earnings on April 23.

????Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.