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專(zhuān)欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

移動(dòng)江湖三國(guó)大戰(zhàn)的邏輯怪圈

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月18日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話(huà),,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話(huà),,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話(huà)。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶(hù)中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn),。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀(guān)察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
蘋(píng)果為什么左右為難?無(wú)論是推廉價(jià)手機(jī),、還是高價(jià)手機(jī)都會(huì)受到責(zé)難,?相反,谷歌和三星的安卓設(shè)備卻左右逢源,,大賣(mài)特賣(mài),?分析人士認(rèn)為,深層次的原因是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)和消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)陷入了一個(gè)邏輯怪圈,。

????
喬布斯的力場(chǎng)反轉(zhuǎn)

????華爾街為什么不看好蘋(píng)果公司(Apple),?本?巴加林在上周的《時(shí)代》雜志(Time)科技版上就這個(gè)問(wèn)題撰文闡述了他的“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”理論,被很多蘋(píng)果觀(guān)察家(包括筆者)廣泛引述,。AppleInsider網(wǎng)站長(zhǎng)期撰稿人丹尼爾?伊蘭?迪爾格心直口快,他對(duì)這個(gè)話(huà)題的興趣比任何人都大,,他甚至還在個(gè)人博客Roughly Drafted Magazine上發(fā)表了文章以示支持,。

????巴加林的理論是,史蒂夫?喬布斯扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤的魔力已經(jīng)被人逆轉(zhuǎn)了,。巴加林認(rèn)為,,如今華爾街和媒體界普遍認(rèn)為,蘋(píng)果的主要問(wèn)題是無(wú)法迅速生產(chǎn)出足夠多的智能手機(jī)和平板電腦來(lái)滿(mǎn)足市場(chǎng)的大量需求,,蘋(píng)果劫數(shù)難逃,。

????迪爾格進(jìn)一步完善了巴加林的理論,提出了他眼中的全新逆轉(zhuǎn)力量的源泉所在——他把它稱(chēng)為“靈活的自適應(yīng)邏輯(flexibly adaptive logic),?!保春笪乃f(shuō)的“邏輯缺陷”——譯注)

????他寫(xiě)道:“邏輯缺陷(flawgic)并不是硬件或軟件的問(wèn)題,而是在人們的日常交流中,,以口碑傳播的方式,,像病毒一樣迅速蔓延,最終深深植根到公眾心目中,?!?/p>

????例如:

????“不論蘋(píng)果要發(fā)布一款價(jià)格50美元的廉價(jià)款iPhone,,還是一款價(jià)格2,000美元的豪華款iPhone,都會(huì)遭到嚴(yán)厲的批評(píng),。廉價(jià)款會(huì)被數(shù)落為粗制濫造,;而豪華款則會(huì)由于高昂的價(jià)格遭到嘲笑。

????“由于這種邏輯缺陷,,即使低端的安卓產(chǎn)品從各個(gè)方面來(lái)看都很糟糕,,還是被譽(yù)為走親民路線(xiàn)的銷(xiāo)量王。它還為谷歌(Google)提供了雙重幫助:使從谷歌眼鏡到Chromebook Pixel這樣整體價(jià)值低劣,、價(jià)格卻貴得離譜的設(shè)備免遭詬病,,還讓這些設(shè)備大賣(mài)特賣(mài)變得可能?!彼f(shuō),,邏輯缺陷就是這么強(qiáng)大。

????談到邏輯缺陷這種基因如何傳給三星(Samsung)時(shí),,迪爾格更是亮出了鮮明的觀(guān)點(diǎn),。邏輯缺陷讓三星敢于在聯(lián)邦法院上一臉嚴(yán)肅地爭(zhēng)辯稱(chēng),它自己——而非蘋(píng)果——才是專(zhuān)利侵權(quán)的受害者,。

????迪爾格說(shuō):“這就好比一個(gè)強(qiáng)奸犯說(shuō),,發(fā)生性行為違背了他本人的意愿。放任這位女士與其他無(wú)辜的強(qiáng)奸犯發(fā)生強(qiáng)制性行為之前,,請(qǐng)把她關(guān)起來(lái),。另外,我能不能起訴她,,要求損害賠償,?因?yàn)槲矣X(jué)得我的性器官受到了損傷?!?/p>

????這種非凡的,、全新的“靈活的自適應(yīng)邏輯”對(duì)谷歌安卓系統(tǒng)的支撐更是有過(guò)之而無(wú)不及。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

????Ben Bajarin's "reality distortion" theory about why Wall Street doesn't get Apple (AAPL) -- first published in Time Magazine's Techland last week -- has been widely picked up by numerous Apple watchers (including this one). But nobody has had more fun with it than Daniel Eran Dilger, a regular (and relatively straightforward) contributor to AppleInsider who likes to let it fly on Roughly Drafted Magazine, his personal blog.

????Bajarin's theory was that the magic by which Steve Jobs could spin almost anything his way has been reversed; now the perception on the Street and in the media is that Apple -- whose main problem, according to Bajarin, is that it can't make smartphones and tablets fast enough to meet demand -- is doomed.

????Dilger has refined Bajarin's theory and identified what he believes to be the source of the new distortive power. He calls it "flexibly adaptive logic."

????"Flawgic," he writes, "is neither hardware nor software; it's installed directly into public mindshare via a virus spread by talking heads."

????For example:

????"If Apple were to release a cheap iPhone that cost $50 or a luxury one that cost $2000, it would receive intense scrutiny in either direction. The cheap version would be derided as flawed and worthless, while the expensive version would be laughed at for being ludicrously priced.

????"Flawgic allows low end Android products to be hailed as volume sales generators, even if they are terrible products in every way. But it also does double-duty in allowing Google's insanely priced devices, from Glass to Chromebook Pixel, to escape criticism of their inherently poor overall value or the likelihood of their ever selling in meaningful volumes."

????Flawgic is that powerful, he says.

????Dilger really hits his stride when he talks about how the Flawgic gene was passed to Samsung, allowing it to argue with a straight face in federal court that it -- not Apple -- was the patent infringement victim.

????"It's like a rapist saying he had penetrated against his own will," writes Dilger, "and please lock this woman up before she is allowed to have forcible sex with other innocent rapists. And can I sue her for damages? I think I hurt my penis."

????There's more of the same at Google's Android powered by remarkable new "flexibly adaptive logic"

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