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????蘋果（Apple）正面臨著市值跳水的窘境,，蘋果股價從去年9月至今已下跌了35%,。眾多賣方分析師紛紛獻計獻策，現(xiàn)在甚至有人建議蘋果推出廉價iPhone,。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）公司的凱蒂?休伯蒂對中國這一全球最大的智能手機市場進行了分析,，并給大家算了一筆賬。

????周二,，她在給客戶的一封信里提出了下面幾個觀點,，令我耳目一新：

????? 人們大多認為，中國的智能手機只會越來越便宜,。與此相反,，她援引一些研究結果，表明去年中國智能手機的平均售價趨于穩(wěn)定,。同時隨著中國用戶開始購買品質更好的智能手機,，售價實際上已開始走高。

????? 蘋果公司可以推出一款售價2,000元人民幣（330美元）的迷你iPhone,，這樣就能和聯(lián)想（Lenovo）,、華為（Huawei）、中興（ZTE）和酷派（Coolpad）的旗艦產品相抗衡了,。

????? 就算利潤率更低（比如40%）,，并且替代率為1/3（即全價iPhone的客戶流失三分之一），低價iPhone也能提高蘋果的營收和毛利潤（見上表）,。

????? 推出迷你iPhone后,，加上中國今年或明年頒發(fā)LTE執(zhí)照，就能最終說服擁有7億用戶的中國移動（China Mobile）和蘋果簽約,。

????? 如果上述情況都變成現(xiàn)實,，休伯蒂估計蘋果在中國智能手機市場上已跌至10%的份額將會提高三倍，達到近30%,。

????當然,，這得取決于蘋果是否能設法用更便宜的零部件、更慢的處理器,、分辨率更低的屏幕,、以及也許是塑料機身來造出一部330美元的iPhone。而用蒂姆?庫克上周在高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）一次會議上的話說,，它決不能是個“低劣產品”,。

????譯者：清遠

????Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math.

????She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new:

????? Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last year and has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones.

????? That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad.

????? That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Apple's revenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above).

????? That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple.

????? If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apple's addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%.

????This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, that isn't, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, "a crappy product."