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專欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

黑石的另類信貸理念

Dan Primack 2013年02月05日

Dan Primack專注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,,從美國(guó)金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及,。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù),。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營(yíng)一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙,。目前他居住在波士頓附近,。
黑石高管認(rèn)為,廉價(jià)信貸不利于股權(quán)收購(gòu),。首先,,對(duì)于陷入困境的公司來說,如果信貸容易獲得,,他們更可能會(huì)選擇再融資,,而不是出售資產(chǎn)。結(jié)果導(dǎo)致可供投資的標(biāo)的量下降,,可供出售的標(biāo)的公司售價(jià)上漲,。更為重要的是,低利率信貸環(huán)境可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)資金過剩,。

????信貸是私募股權(quán)投資的助推劑。借助信貸,,私募股權(quán)公司往往只需拿出收購(gòu)價(jià)30%或40%的資金,。并且,信貸條款越好,,私募股權(quán)公司受益越多,。

????因此,人們會(huì)認(rèn)為,,如今接近于零的超低利率對(duì)私募股權(quán)行業(yè)來說是個(gè)福音,但黑石集團(tuán)(Blackstone Group)總裁托尼?詹姆斯則認(rèn)為,,這種想法可能有點(diǎn)過了,。

????詹姆斯在上周四上午的媒體電話會(huì)議上談及該公司第四季度收益時(shí)稱,現(xiàn)在信貸市場(chǎng)火熱,,但這對(duì)該公司的投資業(yè)務(wù)來說弊大于利,。

????首先,對(duì)于陷入困境的公司來說,,如果信貸容易獲得,,他們更可能會(huì)選擇再融資,,而不是出售資產(chǎn)。這樣就導(dǎo)致可供投資的標(biāo)的量下降,,從而(至少在理論上)使得可供出售的標(biāo)的公司售價(jià)上漲,。

????更為重要的是,低利率信貸環(huán)境一直在推高市場(chǎng)價(jià)格,。而詹姆斯擔(dān)心這種趨勢(shì)將持續(xù)下去,,因?yàn)楦嗟馁Y金將會(huì)入場(chǎng),投資于股權(quán)(因?yàn)閭找媛瘦^低),。

????高利率可以使這個(gè)問題迎刃而解,,但詹姆斯認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)央行不可能加息。

????詹姆斯同時(shí)表示,,戴爾(Dell)被收購(gòu)的傳聞對(duì)于目前的股權(quán)交易市場(chǎng)沒有太大的影響,,不會(huì)因此涌現(xiàn)大中型收購(gòu)標(biāo)的。他認(rèn)為,,過去沒有人質(zhì)疑大宗收購(gòu)交易的信貸可獲得性,,而這筆交易的股權(quán)要求非同尋常,因?yàn)檫@家公司的創(chuàng)始人邁克爾?戴爾持有大量股權(quán),。詹姆斯說,,唯一可能產(chǎn)生的影響是,它可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致私募股權(quán)投資公司更加努力地在成熟的科技公司中尋找目標(biāo),。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:默默

????Credit is the fuel of private equity, often allowing buyout firms to contribute just 30% or 40% of acquisition prices. And the better the credit terms, the more private equity firms stand to gain.

????So one would think today's near-zero interest rates are a boon for the industry, but The Blackstone Group's (BX) Tony James thinks the pendulum may have swung too far.

????Speaking this morning on a media call to discuss the firm's Q4 earnings, James said that "the hot credit markets are more of a negative" for the firm's investing business.

????First, easy credit makes it more likely that troubled companies will refinance, rather than sell. That lowers the overall deal supply, which can (at least theoretically) drive up prices of what remains.

????More importantly, the low credit environment has been driving up prices. And James fears the trend will continue, as more money comes off the sidelines and moves into equities (since there isn't enough yield in debt).

????All of this could be "cured" by higher rates but James doesn't see that coming anytime soon.

????James also said that the rumored Dell (DELL) buyout is not having much impact on current deal-flow, in terms of bringing larger targets to the fore. Nobody was doubting the credit availability for large deals, he argued, and the deal's equity requirements are unusual in that so much of it is held by founder Michael Dell. The only possible consequence, James says, is that it could cause private equity firms to look harder at mature technology companies.

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