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????過去幾天,，至少已有五位分析師根據(jù)蘋果公司（Apple）削減2013年初iPhone 5訂單的報(bào)道,，調(diào)低了蘋果公司股票的目標(biāo)價(jià)，分別是：瑞銀（UBS）的史蒂夫·米洛諾維奇（從775美元降至700美元）,，花旗（Citi）的格倫·揚(yáng)（從675美元降至575美元）,，Canaccord的邁克爾·沃基（從800美元降至750美元），瑞穗（Mizuho）的艾比·蘭姆巴(從750美元降至600美元)和太平洋皇冠證券公司（Pacific Crest）的安迪·哈格瑞弗(從645美元降至565美元),。

????所有這五位分析師似乎都是基于這樣的假設(shè),，蘋果削減訂單是因?yàn)閕Phone 5銷量不如預(yù)期——這種推斷有點(diǎn)站不住腳，看看蘋果公布的兩個(gè)iPhone 5銷售數(shù)據(jù)就知道了:9月份iPhone 5全球首發(fā)以及上周末中國(guó)首發(fā)時(shí),，銷量都刷新了紀(jì)錄,。

????那么，蘋果削減iPhone 5零部件訂單是另有其他原因嗎,？我們聽到了兩種不同的說法：

????蘋果iPhone 5的產(chǎn)出率提高了,。正如Business Insider的賈·亞羅表示：“可能是以前蘋果認(rèn)為iPhone 5的生產(chǎn)難度很大，下的（零部件）訂單量較大,。結(jié)果生產(chǎn)難度還可以,，所以蘋果可以削減訂單了?！?/p>

????蘋果正在控制庫(kù)存,，為6月份當(dāng)季推出一款新的iPhone做準(zhǔn)備。這是蘋果前首席執(zhí)行官約翰·斯卡利傾向的說法,?！拔蚁耄麄?cè)诋a(chǎn)品周期上有一個(gè)很大的調(diào)整,，”他告訴消費(fèi)者新聞與財(cái)經(jīng)電視頻道（CNBC）：“傳統(tǒng)上,，蘋果的新品推出是每年一次；現(xiàn)在事實(shí)上是每年兩次,。從供應(yīng)鏈角度,，這樣做極其復(fù)雜,，但蘋果似乎做得不錯(cuò)。因此,，我想人們可能低估了目前蘋果經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況有多好,，以及一旦蘋果適應(yīng)了每年兩次新品推出后，該公司將取得的成功,?！?/p>

????響應(yīng)斯卡利的說法，Asymco的賀拉斯·德迪烏已收集了六條間接證據(jù),。在我看來(lái),，這些證據(jù)非常有說服力。請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊查看《S代表著春天嗎,？》

????譯者：早稻米

????At least five analysts lowered their Apple (AAPL) price targets in the past few days based on reports that the company has reduced its iPhone 5 orders for early 2013:?UBS'?Steve Milunovich (to $700 from $775),?Citi's Glen Yeung ($575 from $675), Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley ($750 from $800), Mizuho's Abbey Lamba ($600 from $750) and Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves ($565 from $645).

????All five seem to be operating on the assumption that Apple cut its orders because the company is selling fewer iPhone 5s than expected -- a theory undercut somewhat by the only two things Apple has said about iPhone 5 sales: That they broke records?in September, when the device was first released, and?last weekend, when it launched in China.

????So are there other reasons Apple may have cut back on iPhone 5 parts orders? We've heard two competing theories:

????Apple is making the iPhone 5 more efficiently.?As?Business Insider's Jay Yarow put it: "Apple may have put in a bigger manufacturing order under the assumption that the iPhone 5 was going to be hard to make. Turns out it's not that hard to make, so Apple can cut its order."

????Apple is clearing the decks for a new iPhone in the June quarter.?This is the theory favored by former Apple CEO John Sculley. "I think they're going through a very significant change now in terms of product cycles," he?told CNBC. "Traditionally Apple introduces products once a year; now it's really introducing products twice a year. The complexity of that from a supply chain is immense, and Apple seems to be doing it well. So, I think that people are underestimating just how well Apple is run, and just how successful the company can be when it gets to that twice-a-year product introduction cycle."

????In support of Sculley's theory,?Asymco's Horace Dediu has collected half a dozen pieces of what he describes as circumstantial evidence. They seem pretty convincing to me. See?Does S stand for Spring?