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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

業(yè)界熱議iPhone 5中國(guó)首發(fā)銷量破紀(jì)錄

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月19日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
iPhone 5上市首個(gè)周末銷量創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄,,三天總計(jì)賣(mài)出了200萬(wàn)部,。此前普遍不看好iPhone 5的分析人士紛紛改變基調(diào),稱蘋(píng)果最新款手機(jī)的熱賣(mài)預(yù)示著蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)新年的表現(xiàn)將十分強(qiáng)勁,。

????咨詢公司Sterne Agee的吳肖:一致同意以上關(guān)于iPhone的預(yù)測(cè),。“如此強(qiáng)勁的銷售數(shù)字應(yīng)該有助于平息投資者的擔(dān)憂。相應(yīng)的iPhone 4S銷售數(shù)字沒(méi)有透露,,因此無(wú)從比較,,但可以知道的是中國(guó)聯(lián)通(China Unicom)的預(yù)購(gòu)訂單量增加了50%,達(dá)到300,000部,。我們無(wú)意修改上述關(guān)于iPhone的一致預(yù)測(cè),,即第四季度銷量將達(dá)到4,750萬(wàn)部。我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為,,iPhone 5是一次重大升級(jí),,將驅(qū)動(dòng)一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的產(chǎn)品周期,。

????證券公司Atlantic Equities的詹姆斯·科德威爾:iPhone 5登陸中國(guó)首戰(zhàn)告捷,。iPhone 5登陸中國(guó)首個(gè)周末銷量即突破200萬(wàn)部。相比之下,,據(jù)IDC估算,,蘋(píng)果在2012財(cái)年總共向中國(guó)大陸發(fā)貨1,770萬(wàn)部iPhone(同期向整個(gè)大中華區(qū)發(fā)貨2,740萬(wàn)部iPhone),也就是說(shuō),,iPhone首發(fā)周末的發(fā)貨量超過(guò)去年總銷量的10%,。此外,可能還與iPhone 5美國(guó)首發(fā)時(shí)的銷量相當(dāng),。蘋(píng)果稱iPhone 5最初在九國(guó)首發(fā)時(shí),,發(fā)貨量超過(guò)500萬(wàn)部,而據(jù)我們估算,,其中大概有一半的銷量是在美國(guó),。誠(chéng)然,,美國(guó)的銷售數(shù)字可能受到了供應(yīng)有限的影響,而且以上都是渠道銷售數(shù)字這一事實(shí)也意味著我們必須謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待這些數(shù)字,,但我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為,,最初的中國(guó)發(fā)貨量接近蘋(píng)果最大的市場(chǎng)——美國(guó)的發(fā)貨量,這個(gè)消息屬利好,。

????巴克萊銀行(Barclay)的本·雷特茲:前所未有的波動(dòng)似乎將導(dǎo)致第一季度收益指引大幅下調(diào)——對(duì)了,,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)很不錯(cuò)。“近日來(lái)輿論一致看衰iPhone 5在中國(guó)的首發(fā),,但這似乎是杞人憂天了,,因?yàn)榻^大部分分析都只是紙上談兵,。事實(shí)上,,蘋(píng)果剛剛宣布,iPhone 5在中國(guó)大陸前三天銷量已突破200萬(wàn)部,。這個(gè)數(shù)字大大超出了我們的預(yù)期,尤其考慮到投資者曾普遍對(duì)iPhone在新興市場(chǎng)上市太晚持悲觀看法(盡管我們?nèi)圆磺宄@200多萬(wàn)部iPhone 5中究竟有多少已從零售渠道售出),。iPhone 5大熱中國(guó)意味著在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈、iOS 6表現(xiàn)不佳以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的情況下,,我們?nèi)匀挥邢M浅s@喜地看到,,iPhone(所有類型)在整個(gè)12月份季度的銷量有望突破5,000萬(wàn)部,。我們認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果股價(jià)已接近觸底,,不過(guò),我們承認(rèn)該公司正受到利潤(rùn)率,、地圖、新興市場(chǎng),、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和執(zhí)行力等難題困擾,。很明顯,蘋(píng)果應(yīng)該馬上行動(dòng),,消除大家的疑慮,,而iPhone 5走俏中國(guó)市場(chǎng)無(wú)疑是個(gè)良好的開(kāi)端。蘋(píng)果將于明年1月公布季度財(cái)報(bào),,而投資者似乎都不大看好其未來(lái)營(yíng)收(輿論普遍預(yù)測(cè),,蘋(píng)果2013年第二財(cái)季的每股盈利不會(huì)增長(zhǎng))。蘋(píng)果也許需要新一波的新品上市和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,,以恢復(fù)投資者信心,,同時(shí)推動(dòng)自己進(jìn)入新的增長(zhǎng)期?!?/p>

????Topeka證券的布萊恩·懷特:隨著農(nóng)歷蛇年新年來(lái)到,,蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)勢(shì)不可擋。“蘋(píng)果于上周五(12月14日)在中國(guó)發(fā)布iPhone 5,。由于這款手機(jī)實(shí)在乏善可陳,越來(lái)越多的人對(duì)其在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)持懷疑態(tài)度,。顯然,,現(xiàn)實(shí)情況讓他們大跌眼鏡,蘋(píng)果iPhone 5銷量喜人,,而且該公司首次發(fā)表官方公告,,公布了iPhone 5在中國(guó)上市后的銷量。中國(guó)農(nóng)歷新年是明年2月10日,而購(gòu)物旺季將于明年1月開(kāi)始,,蘋(píng)果已為中國(guó)消費(fèi)者準(zhǔn)備了兩大世界上最熱銷的產(chǎn)品(iPhone 5和iPad mini),。我們此前曾指出,中國(guó)對(duì)iPhone 5的需求將暴漲,,因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈舏Phone 4和iPhone 4S用戶會(huì)紛紛升級(jí)手機(jī),。上周末iPhone 5的熱銷已經(jīng)證明了我們的觀點(diǎn)。為什么會(huì)這樣,?關(guān)鍵原因在于地位,。中國(guó)人向世界展示了一種新現(xiàn)象:在中國(guó),擁有最新最棒的iPhone是有地位的象征,?!?/p>

????Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu:?Remain Comfortable with Above Consensus iPhone Forecast. "This is a strong number and should help quell investor concerns. The number of corresponding iPhone 4S sold was not disclosed but to put this in context, China Unicom pre-orders are up 50% to 300,000. We remain comfortable with our above consensus iPhone forecast looking for 47.5 million units for the December quarter. We continue to believe iPhone 5 is a significant update positioned to drive a powerful product cycle."

????Atlantic Equities' James Cordwell:?Strong start for iPhone 5 in China.?"To put the 2m figure in context, IDC estimates that Apple shipped 17.7m units to mainland China in FY12 (and 27.4m into Greater China), meaning launch weekend shipments were over 10% of last year's total volumes. In addition, the volume is probably comparable to that achieved over the same period in the US. Apple stated it shipped over 5m iPhones during the initial nine country launch of the iPhone 5, with the US probably representing about half of this volume, by our estimates. Admittedly the US figure might have been hit by supply constraints and the fact that all these figures are based on sell-in means they have to be treated with a little caution, but we still view it as positive that initial Chinese shipments were close to those in Apple's biggest geography."

????Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Unprecedented Volatility Seems to be Pricing in a Major March Quarter Guide Down - Oh, and China's Pretty Good.?"Recent pessimism around the iPhone 5 launch in China seems? overdone since most of the activity seems to be online. In fact, Apple just announced that sales of the iPhone 5 over its first?three days in China topped 2 million units - much better than our expectations - especially given negative investor sentiment about emerging markets sales of iPhones of late (although we are still unclear how much of the 2 million plus is sell-through). That said, we would still be surprised to see overall December iPhone (all types) sales well over 50 million given tougher competition, some of the concerns around iOS 6, and macro pressures... For Apple we believe the sell-off is nearing a bottom but we acknowledge the fears around margins, maps, emerging markets, competition and execution. The company clearly needs to ease these concerns in the near future - and the announcement around China iPhone 5 sales was a nice start. Investors seem to be pricing in very weak guidance when the company reports in January (consensus F2Q estimates are now calling for flat EPS y/y). It may take another round of new products and innovations to regain investor confidence and help drive another run"

????Topeka's Brian White: China Can't Shake Apple Fever as We Approach the Year of the Snake. "Recall, Apple launched the iPhone 5 in China on Friday (12/14) and given the lackluster lines, there was growing concern around demand for this new iPhone. Clearly, this view turned out to be incorrect as this represents a big print for Apple and the first time the Company ever issued a post-launch press release for iPhone sales in China. With the Chinese New Year beginning on February 10 and shopping season starting in January, Apple has the two hottest products (i.e., iPhone 5 and iPad mini) in the world available for the Chinese consumers...?We have previously indicated that we expected a big uptick in China demand with the iPhone 5 as we believe both iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S owners will upgrade. The strong iPhone 5 sales this weekend support our view. The key reason is status. In our view, a new form factor shows the world that you have the latest and greatest iPhone, a sign of status in China."

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