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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

谷歌強(qiáng)力整合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)對(duì)抗蘋果

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月29日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
谷歌的計(jì)劃是,,贏得價(jià)格敏感型的平板電腦客戶,,然后引導(dǎo)他們購(gòu)買更多搭載Android操作系統(tǒng)的設(shè)備,使用谷歌Play等自有服務(wù),,再依靠這些服務(wù)把這支由Android設(shè)備組成的烏合之眾整合成能與蘋果抗衡的平臺(tái),。但問題是,谷歌的果凍豆,、Play,、Nexus 7以及the Q組合真的能趕上蘋果iTunes嗎?

Nexus Q媒體中心

????最大的驚喜:谷歌宣布,,到場(chǎng)的6,000名與會(huì)者,,每人都會(huì)獲贈(zèng)一部Nexus蓋世(Galaxy)手機(jī),、一部Nexus平板和一臺(tái)Nexus Q媒體中心。

????極具戲劇性的場(chǎng)面:特技表演者佩戴著裝有視頻攝像頭的谷歌眼鏡,,表演了一系列驚險(xiǎn)至極的特技動(dòng)作:極限跳傘演員從一架飛機(jī)上高空跳傘,,徑直降落到莫斯克尼西會(huì)展中心的屋頂上;極限自行車運(yùn)動(dòng)員通過驚險(xiǎn)的特技坡道,,從一座建筑飛躍到另一座建筑上,;最后,極限登山運(yùn)動(dòng)員沿著繩索從展中心中央天而降,。

????場(chǎng)面上的熱鬧幾乎掩蓋了這樣一個(gè)事實(shí):除了Android手機(jī)銷量獨(dú)占鰲頭,谷歌在其它方面幾近全敗,,該公司幾乎在各個(gè)前沿方向都扮演著追趕者角色,。而谷歌Play和Nexus Q出現(xiàn)得實(shí)在有點(diǎn)遲了。微軟(Microsoft)背靠Xbox 360的多媒體播放器已經(jīng)擁有了巨大的裝機(jī)量,,而蘋果的iTunes早在十年前就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),。

????分析師們沒有浪費(fèi)時(shí)間,他們第一時(shí)間將谷歌的新產(chǎn)品與蘋果進(jìn)行了對(duì)比:

????投資機(jī)構(gòu)Topeka的布萊恩?懷特向客戶發(fā)出了即時(shí)報(bào)告,,他寫道:“在我們看來,,蘋果的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)仍然是移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域最好的,總計(jì)超過65萬個(gè)應(yīng)用程序,,22萬5,000個(gè)原生iPad應(yīng)用程序,。與其相比,谷歌應(yīng)用程序的總數(shù)為60萬個(gè),,但其中針對(duì)平板電腦的原生應(yīng)用則少得可憐,。蘋果應(yīng)用程序商店的注冊(cè)帳號(hào)超過4億,應(yīng)用程序下載量超過300億次,,iCloud的用戶數(shù)目前也達(dá)到了1.25億,。”

????資訊公司Forrester公司的詹姆斯?麥克奎維稱:“谷歌從亞馬遜身上看到,,擊敗高端設(shè)備iPad的唯一途徑就是贏得眾多預(yù)備購(gòu)買尺寸較小,、價(jià)格較低的平板電腦的客戶,然后引導(dǎo)這些客戶購(gòu)買更多由Android驅(qū)動(dòng)的設(shè)備,,更重要的是,,引導(dǎo)他們使用谷歌Play等谷歌自有服務(wù),以及觀看YouTube上可能出現(xiàn)的付費(fèi)視頻節(jié)目,。這些服務(wù)將成為一個(gè)秘密武器,,把這支由Android設(shè)備組成的烏合之眾整合成能與蘋果抗衡的平臺(tái),從而與蘋果競(jìng)爭(zhēng)用戶的使用時(shí)間,,而不是高端設(shè)備的銷售收入,。

????投資公司ISI的布萊恩?馬歇爾寫道:“這臺(tái)平板電腦199美元的定價(jià),,再加上新增增加的大量?jī)?nèi)容,有可能會(huì)將一些消費(fèi)者吸引到Android生態(tài)系統(tǒng),。我們相信谷歌正在大幅改善其生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和Android,,而且199美元的定價(jià)將有助于谷歌在平板電腦領(lǐng)域贏得消費(fèi)者。然而,,我們相信蘋果仍遙遙領(lǐng)先,,同時(shí)也對(duì)我們關(guān)于iPad銷量的預(yù)測(cè)抱有信心(例如,2012年為6,400萬部,,2012年為8,000萬部),。”

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????The biggest crowd pleaser: The announcement that all 6,000 attendees will be getting a free Nexus Galaxy phone, a Nexus 7 tablet and a Nexus Q media player.

????The dramatic highlight: The live-streamed video of Google Glass-wearing stuntmen performing a variety of death-defying feats: skydivers jumping out of a passing airplane to land on the roof of the Moscone West; cyclists leaping from building to building via bicycle ramps; mountain climbers rappelling down the side of the conference center.

????Almost lost in the hoopla is the fact that except for its lead in Android phone sales, Google is playing catch-up on almost every front. Google Play and the Nexus Q, in particular, are coming in late. Microsoft (MSFT) has a huge installed base of multi-media players in its XBox 360 and Apple has a decade-long head start with iTunes.

????Analysts wasted no time comparing Google's offerings to Apple's:

????"In our view," wrote Topeka's Brian White in a quick note to clients, "Apple's ecosystem still remains the best in the mobile device world with over 650,000 apps in total and 225,000 apps that are native to the iPad. This compares to 600,000 apps in total for Google and an insignificant amount that are native for tablets. Apple already has 400 million accounts on the App Store with more than 30 billion App downloads, while 125 million users have registered for iCloud."

????From Forrester's James McQuivey: "Learning a lesson from Amazon, Google can see that the only way to beat the premium-worthy iPad is to go for the millions of customers who are ready for smaller and cheaper tablets and then grow those customers into more Android powered devices and, more importantly, Google-powered services like Google Play and whatever paid video experience YouTube will likely create. That range of services will be the secret to stitching together this rag-tag fleet of Android gadgets into a platform that can compete with Apple for minutes of user's attention rather than premium device dollars."

????"The $199 tablet price point as well as improved content availability could draw some consumers to the Android ecosystem," wrote ISI's Brian Marshall. "We believe GOOG is making meaningful improvements to its ecosystem/Android and that the $199 price point could help GOOG gain some traction in tablets. However, we believe AAPL remains well ahead and are comfortable with our iPad estimates (e.g., 64mil in CY12, 80mil in CY13)."

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