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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

分析:iPhone 4S價(jià)低利高

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月12日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
蘋果在消除溢價(jià)的同時(shí),,維持了其利潤(rùn)率,。

????點(diǎn)擊可放大圖片 圖片來(lái)源:德意志銀行

????本周一,,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的克里斯?維特莫爾在致客戶的報(bào)告中稱,,“我們預(yù)計(jì),用戶稍加盤算就會(huì)選擇iPhone?!?/p>

????維特莫爾補(bǔ)充道,,有些用戶甚至想也不用想就會(huì)選擇iPhone。

????維特莫爾分析對(duì)比了新鮮出爐的iPhone 4S和其主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的價(jià)格,、功能以及總體購(gòu)置成本,。

????iPhone 4S的兩年合約價(jià)為199美元(解鎖版售價(jià)為649美元),與運(yùn)行谷歌(Google)Android系統(tǒng)的3G手機(jī)價(jià)格相當(dāng),。與三星蓋世(Samsung Galaxy)S11(229美元合約價(jià)),、Droid Bionic(299美元)以及宏達(dá)電霹靂(HTC Thunderbolt,249美元)等4G手機(jī)的平均售價(jià)相比,,iPhone 4S要便宜大約60美元,。

????按照24個(gè)月分期償還計(jì)算,購(gòu)買一部16GB iPhone 4S的總體購(gòu)置成本約為每月93美元(450分鐘通話,、無(wú)限短信以及2GB流量套餐),。這和其它智能手機(jī)差不多。

????而且,,由于蘋果(Apple)能從運(yùn)營(yíng)商處獲得更高的補(bǔ)貼(iPhone 4和4S為大約450美元),,維特莫爾估計(jì),按照上圖所示,,相比其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,,蘋果能從每部手機(jī)中獲取更多的利潤(rùn)。

????據(jù)估計(jì),,根據(jù)容量不同,,iPhone 4S的材料成為約為170到220美元。如此看來(lái),,iPhone 4S的制造利潤(rùn)高達(dá)71-73%,。

????維特莫爾最后總結(jié)道:“這將支撐蘋果在未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度繼續(xù)獲得超高利潤(rùn)?!?/p>

????以下是德意志銀行制作的圖表,,對(duì)比了在兩年合約情況下,多款手機(jī)的購(gòu)置成本和每月總體開銷,。

????"We expect customers who do the math to opt for the iPhone," writes Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore in a note to clients Monday.

????Moreover, he adds, so will customers who don't do the math.

????Whitmore's analysis involves comparing the price, features and total cost of ownership of the refreshed iPhone 4S with its leading competitors.

????At $199 with a two-year contract (and $649 unlocked), the iPhone 4S is roughly the same price as the 3G handsets that run Google's (GOOG) Android OS, and an average of about $60 less than 4G-based phones such as the Samsung Galaxy S 11 ($229 with contract), Droid Bionic ($299) and HTC Thunderbolt ($249).

????And total cost of ownership for a 16 GB iPhone 4S, amortized across 24 months, is about $93 per month (450 min, unlimited text and 2GB data plan), roughly comparable to the other smartphones.

????Moreover, because Apple (AAPL) is able to command higher subsidies from its carrier partners (about $450 for the iPhone 4 and 4S) Whitmore estimates that the company is making more money per sale than any of its competitors, as indicated by the chart above.

????With an estimated bill of materials between $170 to $220, depending on capacity, the manufacturing margins on the iPhone 4S are roughly 71-73%.

????That, Whitmore concludes, "should support attractive corporate margins for AAPL for multiple quarters."

????Below: Deutsche Bank's chart comparing purchase costs and monthly total cost over the course of a two year contract.

????點(diǎn)擊可放大圖片 圖片來(lái)源:德意志銀行

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