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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

iPhone 5可能10月上架

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報道蘋果公司時有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
知名博客寫手稱蘋果公司將在10月4日推出iPhone 5,?!跋⑷耸俊边M(jìn)一步指出,這款新品稱將在發(fā)布數(shù)周之內(nèi)正式上架,。但歷史數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,從發(fā)布到上市的時間或許更短。而且,,由于中國運(yùn)營商的鼎力支持,iPhone 5的國際鋪貨速度有望超越歷史,。

????

????科技網(wǎng)站All Things Digital的約翰?帕茲諾斯稱,,蘋果(Apple)計劃在10月4日星期二的特別發(fā)布會上揭曉新款iPhone。

????果真如此,,消費(fèi)者何時能夠買到手,?

????帕茲諾斯的線人稱時間“將在數(shù)周之內(nèi)”,。不過證券公司Ticonderoga的布萊恩?懷特在周二致客戶的報告中表示,,揭曉與正式發(fā)布iPhone 5的時間間隔可能要比“數(shù)周時間”短得多,尤其是考慮到iPhone 5的揭曉時間已經(jīng)迫近今年年末,。

????之前蘋果各款產(chǎn)品的間隔時間也驗(yàn)證了這種說法,。如上圖所示,,iPhone揭曉和最終上市銷售的時間間隔從2007年的171天縮減至2010年的17天,。

????iPad也同樣如此,,時間間隔從2010年的66天銳減至今年的9天,。

????懷特還認(rèn)為,,蘋果的228家合作運(yùn)營商進(jìn)行國際化鋪貨的速度會比iPhone 4更快。而且,較之以往,,中國將會扮演更為重要的角色。

????所有人似乎都同意這次將是蒂姆?庫克的首次盛大亮相,。一些人還認(rèn)為史蒂夫?喬布斯也許到時會臨時客串一把。但我們認(rèn)為這并不符合喬布斯的行事風(fēng)格,。

????注意:在早前的報道中,,我將帕茲諾斯描述為“目前蘋果內(nèi)幕的頭號秘密發(fā)布渠道”,,此話暗示蘋果要么直接把消息透露給帕茲諾斯,,要么通過第三方對他有所表示。帕茲諾斯對我的暗示相當(dāng)憤怒,,向我保證事情絕非如此。現(xiàn)在我已經(jīng)刪除了那句話,,并向他致歉,。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????All Things Digital's John Paczkowski reports that Apple (AAPL) plans to unveil the new iPhone at a special event on Tuesday Oct. 4.

????If so, when can we buy one?

????Paczkowski's sources say "within a few weeks." But in a note to clients Tuesday, Ticonderoga's Brian White suggests that the lag time between unveiling and release is likely to be considerably shorter than that, especially given how late in the year the iPhone 5 event is occurring.

????A look at previous lag-times suggests that he is right. As the chart at right shows, the wait between iPhone introduction and sale has decreased from 171 days in 2007 to 17 days in 2010.

????Likewise, the lag time for the iPad shrank from 66 days in 2010 to 9 days this year.

????White also believes that the international ramp-up for Apple's 228 carriers will be faster than it was for the iPhone 4, and that China will play a more important role than ever.

????Everybody seems to agree that this will be Tim Cook's first big show. Some have suggested that Steve Jobs might make a cameo appearance. That doesn't sound to us like something he would do.

????NOTE: An earlier version of this story described Paczkowski as "Apple's current go-to outlet for backchannel leaks," implying that the company either gave him the information directly or channeled it to him through a third party. He resents the implication and assures me that this is not the case. I've deleted that language and offered my apologies.

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