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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

二季度全球平板電腦市場份額:iPad上升,,Android下降

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月20日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,,就會相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯,。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
全球平板電腦市場年增長303.8%,,其中大部分來自蘋果公司,。

????
全球平板電腦市場份額(按發(fā)貨量),。來源:IDC

????市場調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)IDC于一月份推出全球媒體平板電腦和電子書季度追蹤系統(tǒng)。此后,,該機(jī)構(gòu)對平板電腦市場的監(jiān)測水平可謂參差不齊。

????IDC對2011年第一季度的追蹤報(bào)告直到七月份才出爐,,令一些知名的技術(shù)寫手大為困惑,,以至于他們將其誤認(rèn)作第二季度的報(bào)告【參見《平板電腦銷售放緩真相》 (What slowdown in tablet sales?)一文】,。

????IDC的第二季度平板電腦報(bào)告于上周三面世,,距離第四季度開始僅2周,該報(bào)告提出了一些有價值的見解,但也存在很多漏洞,。上方的圖表中包括了我們從IDC的三份跟蹤報(bào)告里能搜集到的所有市場份額數(shù)據(jù),。我們在周三聯(lián)系了IDC的新聞處,詢問他們能否補(bǔ)足缺失的信息,,到目前尚未收到回復(fù),。

????與此同時,IDC已經(jīng)發(fā)布的信息包括:

????? 全球平板電腦市場正在迅猛增長,,從第一季度到第二季度,,發(fā)貨量上漲了88.9%,同比增長了303.8%,。IDC目前預(yù)測2011年發(fā)貨量為6,250萬部,,此前其預(yù)測發(fā)貨量為5,350萬部。

????? 盡管競爭加劇,,但蘋果的市場份額在第二季度上升至68.3%(第一季度為65%),,雖然比2010年第三季度的近87.4%要低。

????? 黑莓設(shè)備生產(chǎn)商RIM在第二季度憑借PlayBook進(jìn)入平板電腦市場,,獲得4.9%的份額——至少發(fā)貨量是這個數(shù)字,。

????? 運(yùn)行谷歌(Google)各種版本Android的平板電腦市場份額下降,在第二季度降至26.8%(第一季度為34%),,而且還可能進(jìn)一步下跌,。

????? 惠普(Hewlett-Packard)以99美元低價銷售其TouchPad,在第三季度獲得了近4.7%的市場份額,,但鑒于惠普已經(jīng)正式拋棄這款產(chǎn)品,這一成功注定是短暫的,。到第四季度,,惠普的市場份額將下降為零。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????Since IDC launched its Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker in January, its coverage of the tablet market has been, shall we say, spotty.

????Its tracking report for the first quarter of 2011 didn't arrive until July, causing serious confusion among some high-profile tech writers who mistook it for a second-quarter report (see What slowdown in tablet sales?).

????IDC's tablet report for Q2 arrived Wednesday, two weeks before the start of Q4, and while it offered some worthwhile insights, it's also full of holes. The chart above contains all the market share data we've been able to glean from IDC's three tracking reports. We asked IDC's press office on Wednesday if they could fill in the blanks; so far, no reply.

????Meanwhile this much can be said: According to IDC ...

????? The worldwide tablet market is growing like gangbusters, with shipments up 88.9% from Q1 to Q2 and 303.8% year over year. IDC is now forecasting shipments of 62.5 million units in 2011, up from an earlier projection of 53.5 million

????? Apple's (AAPL) share, while down from Q3 2010, when it was nearly 87.4%, actually grew to 68.3% in Q2 (up from 65% in Q1) despite increased competition

????? Research in Motion's (RIMM) entered the market in Q2 with its PlayBook and grabbed a 4.9% share -- at least in terms of units shipped

????? The tablets running various versions of Google's (GOOG) Android lost share, falling to 26.8% in Q2 (from 34% in Q1), and the news is likely to get worse before it gets better

????? Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) probably bought a 4.7% share in Q3 with its firesale of $99 TouchPads, but given that HP has officially abandoned the TouchPad, that success is necessarily short-lived. By Q4 HP's share will have fallen to zero

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