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????對(duì)于蘋(píng)果公司來(lái)說(shuō)，沒(méi)有任何一款產(chǎn)品對(duì)公司業(yè)績(jī)的貢獻(xiàn)率能超過(guò)iPhone,。

????在今年三月份結(jié)束的第二財(cái)度里,，蘋(píng)果共售出1，865萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPhone,，iPhone及其周邊產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)共為蘋(píng)果創(chuàng)造了1,，230億美元的營(yíng)業(yè)收入，差不多正好占了蘋(píng)果公司該季度總銷(xiāo)售額的50%——比Mac,、iPod和iPad的總和還要多,。

????蘋(píng)果將于下周公布第三季度財(cái)報(bào)，每個(gè)關(guān)注蘋(píng)果公司的人——無(wú)論是其最堅(jiān)定的投資人,，還是最直接的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,，都會(huì)格外關(guān)注上季度蘋(píng)果究竟賣(mài)出了多少臺(tái)iPhone.

????我們調(diào)查的39位分析人士的預(yù)測(cè)值有的高有的低。其中最高的是羅馬尼亞數(shù)學(xué)家尼古拉?米哈拉奇在科技博客Traderhood上發(fā)布的預(yù)測(cè),，米哈拉奇在巴黎大學(xué)執(zhí)教,，他的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)往往比較樂(lè)觀；最低的預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)自投資和資產(chǎn)管理公司尼達(dá)姆（Needham）的分析師查理?沃爾夫,，他是一名研究蘋(píng)果的老手,，預(yù)測(cè)往往趨于保守。

????這39位分析人士的預(yù)測(cè)平均值為1,，690萬(wàn)臺(tái),，這表明iPhone的銷(xiāo)量相比去年同一季度上漲了101%，這也預(yù)示著在過(guò)去四年里,，蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)總共賣(mài)出了超過(guò)1.25億臺(tái)iPhone,。

????這39位分析師包括14位業(yè)余分析師和25名專(zhuān)業(yè)人士。本季度他們的平均預(yù)測(cè)要比上幾個(gè)季度更加接近,。14位業(yè)余分析師的平均預(yù)測(cè)值為1,，780萬(wàn)臺(tái)，而專(zhuān)業(yè)分析師們的平均預(yù)測(cè)值為1,，640萬(wàn)臺(tái),。蘋(píng)果的收入報(bào)告下周二就會(huì)公布，屆時(shí)我們就能看出誰(shuí)預(yù)測(cè)得更準(zhǔn)確,。

????以下謹(jǐn)為大家列出到目前為止我們收集到的預(yù)測(cè)值及期日期,。“Q2排名”一欄則顯示了上季度每位分析師的預(yù)測(cè)值有多準(zhǔn)確（數(shù)值越低表示預(yù)測(cè)越準(zhǔn)確）,。

????【更新：自從本文發(fā)表后,，又有三位分析師公布了本季度iPhone的銷(xiāo)量預(yù)測(cè)，他們是：私募投資公司W(wǎng)edbush的斯科特?薩瑟蘭（1,，865萬(wàn)臺(tái)）,，瑞銀（UBS）的梅納德?烏姆（1,，835萬(wàn)臺(tái)）和花旗銀行的理查德?加德納（1，800萬(wàn)臺(tái)）,。這樣一來(lái),，華爾街專(zhuān)業(yè)分析師們的平均值就被抬高到1，660萬(wàn)臺(tái),，總體平均預(yù)測(cè)值也突過(guò)了1,，700萬(wàn)臺(tái)大關(guān),?！?/p>

????No product contributes more to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line than the iPhone.

????In the 2nd fiscal quarter that ended in March, when the company sold a record 18.65 million units, the iPhone and related products and services generated $12.3 billion in revenue, almost exactly 50% of Apple's total sales for the quarter -- more than the Mac, iPod and iPad combined.

????So when Apple reports its 3rd quarter earnings next week, everybody who follows the company -- from its most steadfast investors to its fiercest competitors -- will be paying particular attention to how many iPhones it sold.

????The estimates of the 39 analysts we polled for our quarterly earnings smackdown were all over the lot, from a high of 20.25 million from Traderhood's Nicolae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris and tends to overestimate, to 15 million from Needham's Charlie Wolf, a veteran Apple hand who tends to come in low.

????The average all the estimates, 16.9 million, represents a 101% increase over the same quarter last year, and would bring the total number of iPhones sold over the past four years to more than 125 million.

????The 39 analysts in our survey included 14 amateurs and 25 professionals. Their average estimates were closer than in past quarters. Among the amateurs it was 17.8 million. Among the pros, 16.4 million. We'll find out whose estimates were closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings next Tuesday.

????Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).

????[UPDATE: Three more analysts have come in with iPhone numbers since this was posted: Wedbush's Scott Sutherland (18.65 million), UBS's Maynard Um (18.35) and CitiGroup's Richard Gardner (18 million). That brings the Wall Street consensus up to 16.6 million and puts the overall average above the 17 million mark.]