美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年是否會(huì)陷入衰退,？這對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者來(lái)說(shuō),，無(wú)疑是一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的大問(wèn)題。

從4月10日公布的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的會(huì)議紀(jì)要來(lái)看,，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年不太可能會(huì)陷入衰退,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年加息或減息的可能都不大——當(dāng)然它也沒(méi)有完全排除匯率調(diào)整的可能性。

上周三,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公布了3月19日至20日會(huì)議的紀(jì)要,。可以看出,，會(huì)上有幾位參會(huì)者認(rèn)為,，根據(jù)下步的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和其他指標(biāo)進(jìn)展，聯(lián)邦基準(zhǔn)利率的適合目標(biāo)區(qū)間向上或向下浮動(dòng),，都是有可能的,。

在今年3月的會(huì)議上，經(jīng)過(guò)投票,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員們決定繼續(xù)保持利率穩(wěn)定,。此前，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)政策利率處于2.25%至2.5%之間，處于歷史上較低水平（而且這還是在2018年連續(xù)四次加息之后）,。

這一切意味著什么,？說(shuō)明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)依然是相對(duì)健康的，失業(yè)率和通脹都保持在較低水平,。據(jù)路透社4月11日?qǐng)?bào)道,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)副主席理查德·克拉里達(dá)在國(guó)際金融研究所政策峰會(huì)的籌備講話(huà)上表示，到今年夏天,，“本輪從10年前開(kāi)始的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),，將成為有紀(jì)錄以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的一次?！?/p>

Glenmede公司的投資策略師邁克爾·雷諾茲表示：“所有人都想知道經(jīng)濟(jì)是否會(huì)陷入衰退,，這是一個(gè)非常重要的問(wèn)題。但是現(xiàn)在就預(yù)言未來(lái)12個(gè)月是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退,，還為時(shí)過(guò)早,。”Glenmede是一家投資與財(cái)富管理公司,，管理資產(chǎn)超過(guò)370億美元,。

目前，美國(guó)股市仍有上漲空間,，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈,。美國(guó)申報(bào)失業(yè)的人數(shù)也降低至1969年以來(lái)的最低水平?！?969年披頭士樂(lè)隊(duì)才剛火起來(lái),。”雷諾茲說(shuō),。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景保持了樂(lè)觀(guān)展望,。會(huì)議紀(jì)要指出：“與會(huì)人員基本認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張,，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)將保持強(qiáng)勁,，通脹率將繼續(xù)保持在接近2%的水平?！?/p>

不過(guò)與此同時(shí),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也提醒大家應(yīng)該保持謹(jǐn)慎。

會(huì)議指出,，經(jīng)濟(jì)的“重大不確定性因素”依然存在,，如英國(guó)脫歐、歐洲和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,，以及特朗普繼續(xù)掀起貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)等,。

會(huì)議紀(jì)要指出：“2019年剩余幾個(gè)季度里,，以及在未來(lái)幾年里，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率可能會(huì)低于此前的預(yù)期,。主要原因是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲軟,，以及財(cái)政刺激力度弱于預(yù)期?！?/p>

Glenmede公司的雷諾茲表示,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的會(huì)議紀(jì)要精神“與會(huì)后透露的信號(hào)基本一致。這表明了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的耐心,，以及一種觀(guān)望的態(tài)度,，他們不希望經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)度擴(kuò)張?！?/p>

不過(guò),，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》于4月11日表示，據(jù)該報(bào)本月進(jìn)行的調(diào)查,，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們已經(jīng)穩(wěn)步提高了對(duì)衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)期,。今年4月，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)出現(xiàn)衰退的可能性為26%,，高于今年3月的25%和去年10月的18%。

雷諾茲表示：“有些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素正在上升,，但還沒(méi)有達(dá)到需要我們擔(dān)心的程度,。我們需要保持警惕，不過(guò)目前的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還是比較均衡的,?！?/p>

也許就像披頭士的那首歌里唱的一樣，該來(lái)的總會(huì)來(lái)的,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

It’s the million dollar question for economists and investors alike: Is the U.S. headed for a recession this year?

According to Federal Reserve minutes published on April 10, the answer is: It’s not around the corner. The central bank is likely to hold off on any rate hike or cut this year – though they did not rule out the possibility of a move.

“Several participants noted that their views of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate could shift in either direction based on incoming data and other developments,’’ according to minutes released last Wednesday of the Fed’s March 19-20 meeting.

At the March meeting, officials voted to hold rates steady. The target policy rate was left in a historically low range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. (This, after raising interest rates four times in 2018).

What does this all mean? The U.S. economy is still relatively healthy, with low unemployment and subdued inflation. The economic expansion, which began 10 years ago, “almost certainly will become the longest on record,’’ this summer, Federal Reserve vice chairman Richard Clarida said in prepared remarks for the Institute of International Finance policy summit, Reuters reported on April 11.

“That’s the million-dollar question. Everyone wants to know if there will be a recession,’’ said Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede, an investment and wealth management firm with more than $37 billion in assets under management. “Calling for a recession in the next 12 months is premature.’’

There’s still room for U.S. equities to grow, there’s a small rebound in global economies, and filings for jobless claims are the lowest since 1969–so long ago that “The Beatles Abbey Road album was on the charts,’’ Reynolds said.

The Fed’s outlook also remained positive. “Participants generally expected economic activity to continue to expand, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to remain near 2 percent,’’ according to the minutes.

The Fed, however, did strike a cautious note.

Policy makers noted “significant uncertainties” that include Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, slowdowns in Europe and China and President Trump’s continuing trade war.

“Economic growth in the remaining quarters of 2019 and in the subsequent couple of years would likely be a little lower, on balance, than they had previously forecast,” according to the minutes. “Reasons cited for these downward revisions included disappointing news on global growth and less of a boost from fiscal policy than had previously been anticipated.”

Glenmede’s Reynolds said the Fed minutes are “in line with the communication they provided after the meeting. It’s a more patient approach; more of a wait-and-see. They don’t want to get overextended.’’

Still, The Wall Street Journal said on April 11 in its survey this month that economists have steadily raised their assessment of the risk of recession. In April, economists saw a 26% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 25% in March and 18% in October, according to the Journal’s survey.

“Some risks have been rising, but not to the extent that we need to worry,’’ Reynolds said. “We need to have our ears perked up, but the risks are sort of balanced.’’

Or as the Beatles sang, Let It Be.