世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇年會(huì)于上周在瑞士達(dá)沃斯召開(kāi),。（我今年沒(méi)有參加，因?yàn)檗k公室還有很多工作要做,。）像去年一樣,，人工智能是達(dá)沃斯論壇2019年日程上最重要的議題之一。AI無(wú)疑是席卷全球商界的重要科技趨勢(shì),，同樣也被大肆炒作。

畢竟,，技術(shù)和商業(yè)界有一條亙古不變的法則：一旦出現(xiàn)了任何復(fù)雜的發(fā)展變化,，都會(huì)有人自封為該領(lǐng)域的傳教士，試圖嚇唬其他一知半解的人,，讓他們購(gòu)買(mǎi)自己的商品和服務(wù),。今年達(dá)沃斯論壇上有大量專(zhuān)門(mén)討論該話(huà)題的小組，這是上述法則的必然結(jié)果,。正如我在本期《財(cái)富》雜志的另外一篇文章中所述,，今年至少有11個(gè)會(huì)議談到了人工智能。但這卻未必會(huì)帶來(lái)啟發(fā),。

人工智能不是騙局,。能賺錢(qián)的創(chuàng)新必然會(huì)引發(fā)炒作,。正如我的文章中各位專(zhuān)家解釋的那樣，關(guān)鍵是了解AI可以做什么,，不能做什么,。它們能做設(shè)計(jì)師訓(xùn)練它們學(xué)習(xí)的離散型任務(wù)，不能做任何需要辨識(shí)細(xì)微差別,、需要利用同情心或智慧等人類(lèi)品質(zhì)的事情,。

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我通常會(huì)在達(dá)沃斯論壇舉辦前打電話(huà)給政治情報(bào)咨詢(xún)公司歐亞集團(tuán)（Eurasia Group）的老板伊恩·布雷默，他也沒(méi)有參加今年的會(huì)議,。布雷默經(jīng)常和世界各地的政客來(lái)往,，向企業(yè)客戶(hù)提供與政府打交道的建議。以下是他從遠(yuǎn)方圍觀達(dá)沃斯論壇的一些主題：

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*歐洲的弱點(diǎn),。因?yàn)殡x得近,，歐洲的大量政商界領(lǐng)袖出席了達(dá)沃斯，布雷默說(shuō)：“他們也是在勉為其難,，盡管眼下他們也提不出什么建設(shè)性的看法,。”英國(guó)脫歐亂局,、法國(guó)馬克龍的困境,、德國(guó)被迫結(jié)束的默克爾時(shí)代、歐洲各地的各種強(qiáng)人——沒(méi)有一件好事,。布雷默稱(chēng),，唐納德·特朗普盡管十分努力，卻“無(wú)法破壞美國(guó)的制度”,，與之相比,，“歐洲的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者們?cè)噲D破壞制度”——而且成功了。

*受到脅迫的科技巨頭,?！昂苊黠@，盡管科技公司拼盡全力,，說(shuō)‘我們將建立一個(gè)新的世界秩序,，我們已經(jīng)有解決方案’，他們卻受到各方打壓,?！辈祭啄f(shuō)?！爸袊?guó)人提出了新方案,，卻無(wú)處投資。這些科技公司受到來(lái)自美國(guó)公眾和歐洲監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的阻力,，甚至彼此間也相互阻撓,?！碧O(píng)果公司抨擊谷歌和Facebook，微軟則在討論隱私問(wèn)題時(shí)狡猾地建議對(duì)其中極窄的一部分進(jìn)行監(jiān)管——面部識(shí)別,。

*上層人士的壓力（更大）,。達(dá)沃斯會(huì)議有時(shí)是不同場(chǎng)景的荒誕并存，一邊是對(duì)如何修復(fù)世界進(jìn)行高尚的長(zhǎng)篇大論,，另外一邊,，公司大佬在荒唐的派對(duì)上花的錢(qián)足夠國(guó)內(nèi)好些個(gè)營(yíng)地里無(wú)家可歸的人們花好幾年，俄羅斯寡頭們?cè)阪?zhèn)外別墅里舉辦種種墮落放蕩的活動(dòng),。從根本上說(shuō),，商人們來(lái)達(dá)沃斯是為了做生意，只有他們堅(jiān)持假裝自己另有所求時(shí)才會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,?！皢?wèn)題不是全球化被打破了?！辈祭啄f(shuō),。“不是的,。而是人們看到精英階層利用開(kāi)放的國(guó)界發(fā)家致富,。盡管克勞斯·施瓦布（世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的鐵腕創(chuàng)始人）希望在方框里打上勾，表明他已經(jīng)解決了這個(gè)問(wèn)題,，但事實(shí)是人們真正想談的是他們的股東,、他們的商業(yè)模式，諸如此類(lèi),。他們對(duì)研究自己的商業(yè)模式會(huì)如何被打破,、威脅他們的是什么并不真的感興趣?！?/p>

關(guān)于布雷默的最后一點(diǎn),，從2018年12月初我就開(kāi)始隨身攜帶戴維·萊昂哈特的專(zhuān)欄“如果CEO們關(guān)心美國(guó)”（線(xiàn)上標(biāo)題：“美國(guó)資本主義失靈了”）。對(duì)于達(dá)沃斯的大佬而言,，他們?cè)诤涞娜鹗啃℃?zhèn)乘坐開(kāi)足暖氣的轎車(chē)從一個(gè)活動(dòng)前往下一個(gè)活動(dòng)時(shí),，這是很不錯(cuò)的短篇讀物。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

The World Economic Forum annual meeting convened last week in Davos, Switzerland. (I’m skipping this year; there’s a lot to be done in the office.) One of the biggest topics on the 2019 agenda, as it was last year, is artificial intelligence. That’s because A.I. is at once an irrefutably important technological trend sweeping the business world and the subject of a commensurate amount of hype.

After all, an immutable law of technology and business is that any complicated development brings with it self-proclaimed priests of said subject intent on frightening the less-informed into buying their goods and services. A corollary to this law is that the program in Davos will include oodles of panels devoted to the subject. As I note in this article from the current issue of Fortune, no fewer than 11 sessions reference A.I. this year. Enlightenment isn’t promised to follow.

A.I. is no hoax. Hype is the natural byproduct of innovations that can make people money. The point, as various experts explain in my article, is to understand what A.I. can do—discrete tasks its designers have trained it to learn to do—and what it can’t, just about anything that requires the human qualities of nuance, empathy, or wisdom.

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Ahead of Davos, I typically call Ian Bremmer, boss of political-intelligence consultancy Eurasia Group, who’s also sitting out this year’s proceedings. Bremmer travels the world checking in on politicos and advising corporate clients on how to deal with governments. Here are a few of the themes he’s watching it from afar:

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* Europe’s weakness. Given their proximity, European political and business leaders show up in force at Davos, Bremmer notes, “hitting above their weight, even though they have very little constructive to say right now.” The Brexit mess, Macron’s woes in France, the forced end of the Merkel era in Germany, various strongmen around Europe’s edges—none of it is good. Contrasted with the United States, where Bremmer notes Donald Trump “can’t undo American institutions,” try as he may, “in Europe you have leaders trying to undo institutions”—and succeeding.

* Big Tech in duress. “It is very clear that for all the efforts of the tech companies to say ‘We’re going to build a new world order where we’ve got the solutions,’ they are getting hit from all sides,” says Bremmer. “The Chinese are building alternatives they can’t invest in. And they’re getting pushback from the U.S. public, from European regulators, even from each other,” as Apple bashes Google and Facebook while Microsoft slyly recommends regulation of a narrow sliver of the privacy debate, facial recognition.

* (More) pressure on elites. The Davos meeting is a sometimes surreal juxtaposition of high-minded bloviating about repairing the world even while corporate honchos spend enough on over-the-top parties to feed multiple homeless encampments back home for years and Russian oligarchs host debauched after-hours affairs in the villas outside of town. At root, the businesspeople are in Davos to do business, which is only problematic to the extent they insist on pretending otherwise. “It’s not that globalization is broken,” says Bremmer. “It’s not. It’s the perception that elites have used open borders to enrich themselves. As much as Klaus [Schwab, the iron-fisted WEF founder] wants to check the box and show he has addressed it, the fact is that what people really want to talk about are their shareholders, their business models, etcetera. They’re not really interested in trying to explore how their biz models may be broken and what’s threatening them.”

To Bremmer’s final point, I’ve been carrying around with me for a bit now this David Leonhardt column from early December 2018, “When C.E.O.s Care About America.” (The online headline: “American Capitalism Isn’t Working.”) It’d be a good short read for the pooh-bahs in Davos to read while being shuttled in their heated sedans from one event to the next in the frigid Swiss town.