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商業(yè)周期無(wú)法避免,如何不受其影響?

商業(yè)周期無(wú)法避免,如何不受其影響,?

Clifton Leaf 2018-07-29
雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)一直呈上升態(tài)勢(shì),但美國(guó)并沒(méi)有失去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,有很多富于創(chuàng)造力而且目標(biāo)遠(yuǎn)大的顛覆者,。

Art Streiber for Fortune Magazine

大家也許在今年6月出版的《財(cái)富》雜志上看到過(guò)杰夫·科爾文對(duì)通用電氣的精準(zhǔn)分析,,那篇文章的名字很妙,,叫《到底出了什么事?》(What the Hell Happened?)或者,,大家可能對(duì)他近幾個(gè)月探討Intuit,、寶潔、富國(guó)銀行或卡夫亨氏的那些有說(shuō)服力的特寫(xiě)有所耳聞,。如果看過(guò)其中的某幾篇(最好大家都讀過(guò)),,那么大家就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),在如今的商業(yè)報(bào)道領(lǐng)域里,,基本上沒(méi)人能像杰夫那樣透徹地對(duì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行剖析,。

在本期《財(cái)富》雜志中,,作為本刊資深編輯的杰夫,我們請(qǐng)他來(lái)分析一下美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),,好比解析公司一樣,,查查它的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,檢討一下它的經(jīng)營(yíng)模式和現(xiàn)任管理層,,再發(fā)揮一下他的特長(zhǎng),,周詳?shù)剡M(jìn)行一次無(wú)死角風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。

就這樣,,我們得到了本期的封面文章,。同時(shí),對(duì)所有認(rèn)為美國(guó)歷時(shí)數(shù)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)能永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去的人來(lái)說(shuō),,這篇文章釋放了一個(gè)讓人冷靜的信號(hào),,那就是經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)一直呈上升態(tài)勢(shì)。商業(yè)周期就是周期,,盡管連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到驚人的110個(gè)月,,成為164年來(lái)第二長(zhǎng)的增長(zhǎng)期,但經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向不可避免,,而且它到來(lái)的時(shí)間可能比大多數(shù)人預(yù)計(jì)的還要快,。

杰夫認(rèn)為,引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的將是基本面和表象誘因的共同作用,,其中既有一段時(shí)間以來(lái)一直制約經(jīng)濟(jì)的因素,,也有較新而且對(duì)前一類(lèi)因素有助推作用的情況。兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域中的債務(wù)都很高——國(guó)會(huì)的借款與開(kāi)支規(guī)模和許多杠桿過(guò)高的公司一樣,,都處于危險(xiǎn)水平,。杰夫介紹說(shuō),美國(guó)公司的凈負(fù)債/利潤(rùn)比例已經(jīng)達(dá)到15年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn),。

另一方面,,特朗普政府對(duì)移民的明顯敵意進(jìn)一步限制了美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力的增長(zhǎng),而人口結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)給美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力帶來(lái)了挑戰(zhàn),。愈演愈烈的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),、和長(zhǎng)期盟友的任性紛爭(zhēng),以及不斷上升的利率和油價(jià)將共同讓貿(mào)易和投資增長(zhǎng)變得更為緩慢,。

至于所有這些什么時(shí)候會(huì)引發(fā)衰退,,或者說(shuō)引發(fā)的衰退什么時(shí)候會(huì)影響到股市,目前還沒(méi)有定論,。就像杰夫所言,,崩盤(pán)之前,追捧行情不會(huì)輕易結(jié)束,。但就像大家將在我們的封面文章中看到的那樣,,有充分跡象表明我們正在朝著這個(gè)方向邁進(jìn),。

除了年度世界500強(qiáng)名單,本期《財(cái)富》雜志還就上述話題給工商界提了個(gè)醒,,那就是現(xiàn)在美國(guó)公司面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)比以往任何時(shí)候都激烈,。10年前,在按收入排列的全球最大500家企業(yè)中,,近三分之一(153家)都在美國(guó),,它們的收入總和達(dá)到驚人的30萬(wàn)億美元,占全球GDP的38%?,F(xiàn)在,,世界500強(qiáng)中有126家美國(guó)公司。同樣是在這10年里,,中國(guó)大陸公司的數(shù)量在這個(gè)頗有威望的名單中從29家增至111家,。

當(dāng)然,上述情況絕不會(huì)讓人們認(rèn)為美國(guó)已經(jīng)失去了它固有的創(chuàng)業(yè)動(dòng)力或競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。要證明這一點(diǎn),,只需要花幾分鐘來(lái)看看我們看重的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)之一——40位40歲以下的商界精英。從編演導(dǎo)三棲明星喬丹·皮爾到擊敗埃隆·馬斯克,,獲得美國(guó)太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)權(quán)的Sunrun首席執(zhí)行官林恩·朱莉奇,,美國(guó)有創(chuàng)造力而且目標(biāo)遠(yuǎn)大的顛覆者可謂濟(jì)濟(jì)一堂。

大家可以相信,,無(wú)論商業(yè)周期在什么時(shí)候轉(zhuǎn)向,,這個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)都不會(huì)消失。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文最初刊登在2018年8月1日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志上,,題為《商業(yè)周期正在轉(zhuǎn)向》,。

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

MAYBE YOU READ HIS SURGICAL ANALYSIS of GE in our June issue, aptly titled “What the Hell Happened?” Or perhaps you’re familiar with his probing and cogent feature stories on Intuit, P&G, Wells Fargo, or Kraft Heinzin recent months. But if you’ve read any of these stories (and hopefully, you’ve read them all), you already know that nobody in the business press today dissects companies quite as deftly as Geoff Colvin does.

In this issue, though, we asked Geoff, a Fortune senior editor-at-large, to dig into something much bigger than any one company. We asked him to dissect the U.S. economy: to scrutinize its balance sheet, examine its business model and current management, and do the kind of thoughtful, 360-degree risk analysis that Geoff does so well.

The result is our cover story, and a sobering message for anyone who thinks that our aged economic expansion can last forever: It won’t. The business cycle is just that, a cycle, and even after an extraordinary 110 months of nonstop growth—the second-longest expansion in 164 years of measuring—a change in tide is inevitable. And it’s probably coming sooner than most think.

What will precipitate this one, Geoff argues, is a combination of fundamentals and fomenters—factors that have been straining the economy for some time, along with more recent developments that compound the effects of the former. Debt is high up on both lists: Our borrow-and-spend Congress has found a dangerous kinship with today’s multitude of overleveraged companies; corporate America’s net debt-to-earnings ratio is at the highest level in 15 years, as Geoff reports.

The Trump administration’s outright hostility to immigration, likewise, further constrains the growth in America’s demographically challenged labor force. And the specter of an escalating trade war, petulant fights with long-standing allies, and rising interest rates and oil prices are combining to slow trade and investment even more.

As for when all this will lead to a recession—or, for that matter, affect the stock market—that’s anybody’s guess. As Geoff points out, we could easily end up with a “melt-up” in the market before we get a meltdown. But, as you’ll see in our cover story, the signs are abundant that we’re headed that way.

This issue of Fortune—which includes our annual Global 500 ranking—also brings a related reminder to the business community: U.S. companies face more competition today than ever. A decade ago, America was home to nearly a third (153) of the world’s 500 largest companies by revenue, which together account for a stunning $30 trillion in revenue or 38% of global GDP. Our share is now a quarter (126). Over the same 10 years, meanwhile, China boosted its own representation on this venerable list from 29 companies to 111.

None of the above, of course, should make anyone think that America has lost its innate entrepreneurial energy or competitiveness. For proof, just spend a few minutes going through one of Fortune’s favorite economic indicators—our 40 Under 40 list. From triple threat writer-actor-director Jordan Peele to Sunrun CEO Lynn Jurich, who has outmaneuvered Elon Musk in the fight to dominate the U.S. solar market, America is brimming with creative and ambitious disrupters.

You can be sure that advantage won’t go away—no matter when the business cycle turns.

A version of this article appears in the August 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “The Business Cycle Is Turning.”

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