作為一個(gè)撲克迷,，我深知世上沒有“必贏”一說(shuō),。然而，如果我們隨機(jī)選擇100家科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè),，我敢打賭,，大多數(shù)公司都會(huì)大肆宣傳自身業(yè)務(wù)與人工智能技術(shù)結(jié)合的多么緊密。

這種人工智能的營(yíng)銷炒作已是愈演愈烈,，這一點(diǎn)我們倒是可以理解,。不管是Netflix根據(jù)觀眾此前的選擇來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)觀眾可能的節(jié)目喜好，還是谷歌根據(jù)數(shù)千萬(wàn)網(wǎng)民的點(diǎn)擊對(duì)搜索結(jié)果進(jìn)行持續(xù)的改善,，亦或是具有爭(zhēng)議的人工智能系統(tǒng),，包括亞馬遜善解人意的Alexa，人工智能業(yè)已成為我們?nèi)粘Ｉ畹囊徊糠?。與此同時(shí),，商界正在競(jìng)相使用人工智能技術(shù)來(lái)解決一系列問(wèn)題，只是對(duì)于主流消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)不怎么顯眼罷了,。

競(jìng)相搭乘新興熱門事物的順風(fēng)車是人類的天性,，而且這種現(xiàn)象以前在其他技術(shù)領(lǐng)域也是屢見不鮮，例如大數(shù)據(jù),、云,、軟件即服務(wù)、移動(dòng),、網(wǎng)絡(luò)2.0,，等等,。

但是初創(chuàng)企業(yè)對(duì)“人工智能”一詞的過(guò)度使用——或赤裸裸的濫用——如今尤為猖獗。幾乎每一天,，我都會(huì)遇到一些企業(yè),，它們會(huì)在自身的營(yíng)銷說(shuō)辭大談特談人工智能，并將自己描述為一家人工智能公司,，但卻拿不出真正的人工智能技術(shù)作為證據(jù),。

例如，這些人工智能公司實(shí)際上做的是基礎(chǔ)的數(shù)據(jù)分析,。他們的技術(shù)都來(lái)源于數(shù)據(jù),，而且結(jié)果都被用于實(shí)現(xiàn)特定的目的，例如,，根據(jù)預(yù)設(shè)定的規(guī)則識(shí)別發(fā)送營(yíng)銷信息郵件的最佳時(shí)機(jī),。

這種根據(jù)上下文來(lái)整理數(shù)據(jù)的做法也讓此類公司具有了一定的價(jià)值，但這并不是人工智能,。它們之間的關(guān)鍵區(qū)別在于：人工智能系統(tǒng)具有迭代性,，分析的數(shù)據(jù)越多，系統(tǒng)就會(huì)變得越智能,，越能干,，而且越自主化。特斯拉的自動(dòng)駕駛便是一個(gè)例子,，它能夠根據(jù)其車輛在路上行駛的每一英里來(lái)不斷進(jìn)行完善,。真正的人工智能功能會(huì)徹底地顛覆市場(chǎng)。

很多軟件即服務(wù)和自動(dòng)化公司也用人工智能來(lái)標(biāo)榜自己,，但事實(shí)上他們所做的只不過(guò)是使用數(shù)據(jù)分析來(lái)編排應(yīng)用和工作流程,。這一技術(shù)隨著時(shí)間的推移不會(huì)變的更加智能，而且也無(wú)法達(dá)到真正人工智能技術(shù)的自主水平,。

這些公司錯(cuò)誤地認(rèn)為,，只要其工作與數(shù)據(jù)或工作流程相關(guān)，都可以被稱之為人工智能,。它們還肆無(wú)忌憚地使用通常與人工智能相關(guān)的“算法”一詞,。然而，即便某個(gè)系統(tǒng)擁有能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)某些功能的算法,，但它并不一定就能被稱之為人工智能,。

因此，在我們投資高舉人工智能旗幟的公司之前,，我們應(yīng)注意以下幾點(diǎn)：公司的業(yè)務(wù)是否超出了基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)分析的范疇,？這些公司是否會(huì)產(chǎn)生數(shù)據(jù)廢氣——公司從感興趣的數(shù)據(jù)源獲取的大量專屬數(shù)據(jù)？它們是否使用這一數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)打造日益智能化的系統(tǒng)，并轉(zhuǎn)而產(chǎn)生自身的數(shù)據(jù)廢氣,？它們是否擁有能夠降低流程中人類干預(yù)需求的迭代技術(shù)（機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)或深度學(xué)習(xí)）,。

如果一家公司符合上述所有條件，我們還需注意公司是否擁有：在技術(shù)層面上深諳機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)模型的創(chuàng)始人,；將這些模型應(yīng)用至龐大的數(shù)據(jù)集的獨(dú)特方式,；面向這些業(yè)務(wù)極有可能成功的業(yè)務(wù)模式。

如果有公司聲稱自己在使用人工智能技術(shù),，我們應(yīng)該向公司負(fù)責(zé)人詢問(wèn)以下幾個(gè)問(wèn)題：那些聲稱自己是人工智能技術(shù)專家的員工在應(yīng)對(duì)巨大的人工智能挑戰(zhàn)方面是否有經(jīng)驗(yàn),，而且相對(duì)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，他們是否有絕對(duì)的優(yōu)勢(shì),？他們是否了解打造自主系統(tǒng)所需要的復(fù)雜技術(shù)細(xì)節(jié),？他們是否通過(guò)吸引人才在市場(chǎng)上開展競(jìng)爭(zhēng)？

真正的人工智能技術(shù)能夠?yàn)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題提供突破性的解決方案,。如果這些公司在現(xiàn)實(shí)當(dāng)中能夠提供這類解決方案,，那么它們?cè)僭趺闯醋饕膊粸檫^(guò)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

阿里夫·簡(jiǎn)莫哈默德是Lightspeed Venture Partners的合伙人,。

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

As a fan of poker, I know there’s no such thing as a sure bet. But randomly pick 100 tech startups and I’d confidently wager that the vast majority are t weaving AI heavily into their narrative.

AI hype has become intense, and understandably so. The technology has become part of everyday life, whether it’s Netflix predicting what shows we might like based on previous choices, Google’s search results consistently improving based on millions of people’s clicks, or conversational AI systems like Amazon’s Alexa getting to know you. Meanwhile, virtually invisible to mainstream consumers, the business world is agog over harnessing AI to solve a range of problems.

It’s human nature to latch onto the next big thing, and we’ve seen it many times before with other tech buzzwords of the moment: big data, the cloud, software as a service (SaaS), mobile, Web 2.0—the list goes on and on.

But overuse—or flat-out misuse—of the term “AI” in the startup world right now is especially rampant. Barely a day goes by when I don’t come across a company that is molding its marketing messages to the hype and pitching itself as an AI company, without a genuine AI story to back it up.

In a typical scenario, these artificial artificial intelligence companies are in actuality doing basic data analysis. Their technology sifts through data, and the results are used to drive certain outcomes—say, identifying the best time to send marketing emails based on pre-programmed rules.

Such companies may provide value by making data contextually relevant, but that’s not AI. Here’s the crucial difference: AI systems are iterative—they get smarter with the more data they analyze and become increasingly capable and autonomous as they go. Think of Tesla’s Autopilot improving with every mile that its fleet spends on the road. Authentic AI capability is what enables true market disruption.

A number of SaaS and automation companies out there are positioning themselves under the AI banner, even though all they really do is use data analytics to orchestrate applications and workflows. The technology doesn’t get more intelligent over time, and it never reaches the level of autonomy of bona fide AI.

For these companies, AI incorrectly has become a catchall phrase for anything that has to do with data or workflow. They also tend to liberally throw around “algorithm,” a word often associated with AI. But just because a system has algorithms that drive certain outcomes doesn’t necessarily mean it is AI.

Here’s what we look for before we invest in a company making an AI play: Are they doing more than basic data analysis? Are they creating their own data exhaust—a large trail of proprietary data that they collect from interesting sources? Do they use this data to create systems that constantly get smarter and in turn create their own data exhausts? Do they have iterative technology (machine learning or deep learning) that reduces the need for humans in the loop?

If those boxes can be checked off, we look for the following: founders with deep technical understanding of machine learning models, a unique approach for applying those models to a very large data set, and the strong possibility of a successful business model from all of it.

We should ask the following questions about the heads of companies that claim to use AI: Do the people claiming to be AI experts have experience taking on huge AI challenges, to the point that they have an extreme advantage over competitors? Do they understand the intricate technical details of what it takes to build an autonomous system? Are they attracting the talent to attack the market?

Authentic AI can provide groundbreaking solutions to real problems. The companies that can deliver in the field deserve all of the hype coming their way.

Arif Janmohamed is a partner at Lightspeed Venture Partners.