對(duì)于美國(guó)各大公司來說,，自由現(xiàn)金流即將如潮水般涌來,。由于特朗普的新稅法——《減稅與就業(yè)法案》的出臺(tái)，我們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)各大公司在未來5年中的余富現(xiàn)金將超過2.6萬億美元,。這些現(xiàn)金主要來自于以下三個(gè)部分：回流美國(guó)的海外現(xiàn)金,、未來國(guó)外收益以及美國(guó)本土利潤(rùn)稅賦的降低。關(guān)鍵問題在于：面對(duì)這洶涌的現(xiàn)金浪潮,，各大公司該如何應(yīng)對(duì),？

多年來，眾多上市公司的首席執(zhí)行官一直都在抱怨：分析師和激進(jìn)股東給他們施加了不少壓力,，迫使他們專注于短期利潤(rùn)而不是長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng),。如今，每一位首席執(zhí)行官都有一個(gè)絕佳的機(jī)會(huì)來大展身手,。

首席執(zhí)行官可通過兩種途徑來應(yīng)對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的激增,。他們可以通過增加派息和股票回購(gòu)，提升股東的短期回報(bào),，或通過投資工廠,、人力、研發(fā)和技術(shù)收購(gòu)來促進(jìn)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng),。

出于對(duì)其公信力和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的考慮,，我們敦促首席執(zhí)行官們投資長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)，而不是像2004年那樣回購(gòu)股票,。

2004年,，國(guó)會(huì)通過的法案提供了一個(gè)“免稅期”，對(duì)美國(guó)公司匯回國(guó)內(nèi)的海外利潤(rùn)征收5.25%的稅,。結(jié)果,，近1000家符合這一規(guī)定的美國(guó)公司決定將3620億美元的國(guó)外利潤(rùn)匯回美國(guó)。然后,，這些公司大多都將這些資金用于回購(gòu)股票,，因而減少了公司在外流通股票的數(shù)量，并推高了每股收益,。

受新稅法影響,，因海外利潤(rùn)回流而導(dǎo)致的現(xiàn)金流增量可能會(huì)大幅增加，在未來5年內(nèi)將超過1萬億美元。美國(guó)公司滯留海外的利潤(rùn)一直在大幅增長(zhǎng),，從2004年的約6000億美元增至2017年的2.5萬億美元,。2004年，只有匯回美國(guó)的海外利潤(rùn)才會(huì)被征收利潤(rùn)回流稅,。作為對(duì)比,，新稅法會(huì)對(duì)所有滯留海外的利潤(rùn)征收回流稅，因此這些利潤(rùn)回流美國(guó)時(shí)將不再有任何的額外稅收成本,。

在未來5年內(nèi),，美國(guó)公司滯留國(guó)外的利潤(rùn)總計(jì)將超過2萬億美元。根據(jù)新稅法,，這些未來利潤(rùn)可能在回流美國(guó)時(shí)無需支付任何額外的美國(guó)企業(yè)所得稅。我們估計(jì),，美國(guó)公司可能會(huì)合理地調(diào)撥其中的一半,，也就是1萬億美元，在美國(guó)進(jìn)行資本投資,。

與此同時(shí),，如企業(yè)所得稅由之前的35%變?yōu)?1%，美國(guó)公司的稅后國(guó)內(nèi)利潤(rùn)將大幅增長(zhǎng),。該稅收削減舉措在未來5年內(nèi)將為企業(yè)稅后利潤(rùn)帶來約6000億美元的增量,。

美國(guó)公司會(huì)像2004年那樣將超過2.6萬億美元的增量現(xiàn)金主要用于回購(gòu)股票嗎？當(dāng)時(shí),，令兩黨政客感到失望的是,，在3620億美元的回流利潤(rùn)中，只有很小一部分用于創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)或擴(kuò)建美國(guó)工廠,。

自2010年以來,，各大公司一直對(duì)股票回購(gòu)樂此不疲。毫無疑問,，一些激進(jìn)股東會(huì)再次建議通過回購(gòu)來提升股價(jià),。但大多數(shù)投資者已經(jīng)看透了這一把戲，他們希望看到的是公司營(yíng)收和收益出現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性的增長(zhǎng),。

為了促進(jìn)實(shí)質(zhì)性的增長(zhǎng)并創(chuàng)造國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),，上市公司高管應(yīng)投資可持續(xù)項(xiàng)目和計(jì)劃。大規(guī)模的股票回購(gòu)無異是在向世人宣布,，高管們沒有足夠的資本投資來創(chuàng)造合理的回報(bào),。

新稅法中的特別稅收優(yōu)惠會(huì)刺激公司高管使用這些增量現(xiàn)金于未來5年內(nèi)在美國(guó)進(jìn)行資本投資。只有在這一期間,，所有的公司才能夠直接扣除其美國(guó)資本投資的所有成本,，而不是在這些投資的使用周期內(nèi)逐漸扣除。

這些新資本投資對(duì)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是巨大的。未來5年內(nèi)2.6萬億美元美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)投資增量將比美國(guó)公司在過去5年的資本投資總額高出20%,。

因此,，目前正是上市公司高管投資公司未來發(fā)展的好時(shí)候，包括創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),，擴(kuò)建當(dāng)?shù)毓S,。如果高管們反其道而行之，意欲將新獲得的現(xiàn)金流全部用于回購(gòu)公司股票,，那么獨(dú)立董事就應(yīng)考慮對(duì)公司構(gòu)架和策略進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整,，而且在必要的情況下給管理團(tuán)隊(duì)也換換血。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

羅伯特·珀澤恩是麻省理工學(xué)院斯隆管理學(xué)院高級(jí)講師,，也是前Fidelity Management & Research Company總裁,。羅伯特·斯蒂爾是Perella Weinberg Partners首席執(zhí)行官，曾擔(dān)任前美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)部副部長(zhǎng),。

譯者: Min?

U.S. companies will soon experience a tsunami of free cash flow. Because of the new Trump-GOP tax plan—the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—we estimate American companies will have over $2.6 trillion of additional cash over the next five years. This will come from three sources: repatriated overseas cash, future foreign earnings, and lower corporate taxes on domestic profits. The critical question is: What will companies do with this inpouring of cash?

For years, many CEOs of public companies have complained of pressure by analysts and activists to focus on short-term profits rather than long-term growth. Now each CEO has a great chance to put their money where their mouth is.

CEOs have two main alternatives for this incremental cash flow; they can boost short-term returns to shareholders through higher dividends and share repurchases, or they can augment long-term growth by investing in plants, people, research, and technology acquisitions.

For the sake of their credibility and the American economy, we urge CEOs to invest in long-term growth, and not in share buybacks as they did in 2004.

In 2004, Congress passed a tax holiday for the repatriation of foreign profits of U.S. companies then held abroad—at a 5.25% rate. As a result, nearly 1,000 eligible American companies decided to bring back to the U.S. $362 billion in foreign profits then held abroad. They then mostly spent that money on share buybacks, which decrease the outstanding number of a company’s shares and thereby increase earnings per share.

Under the new tax act, the incremental cash flow from repatriating past foreign profits is likely to be much higher—above $1 trillion over the next five years. The foreign profits of U.S. companies held abroad have increased dramatically—from approximately $600 billion in 2004 to over $2.5 trillion in 2017. In 2004, companies paid a repatriation tax on foreign profits only if they were brought back to the U.S. By contrast, the new tax plan assesses a repatriation tax on all foreign profits held abroad, so there is no extra tax cost for bringing them back to the U.S.

The future foreign profits of U.S. companies will total over $2 trillion during the next five years. Under the new tax act, these future profits may be repatriated to the U.S. without paying any additional U.S. corporate taxes. We estimate that American companies could reasonably allocate half of this total, or $1 trillion, to capital investments in the U.S.

At the same time, the after-tax domestic profits of American companies should be up sharply with a corporate tax rate at 21%, down from 35%. This rate cut will lead to higher after-tax corporate profits of roughly $600 billion over the next five years.

Will American companies use this total of over $2.6 trillion in incremental cash mainly for share buybacks, as happened in 2004? Then, politicians from both parties were disappointed that so little of the $362 billion in repatriated profits was used to create American jobs or expand U.S. facilities.

Since 2010, companies have engaged in a frenzy of share buybacks. There is no question that some activists will advocate again for buybacks to raise stock prices. But most investors see through this tactic; they are looking for real growth of company revenue and earnings.

To promote real growth and add domestic jobs, public company executives should make capital investments in sustainable projects and programs. Share buybacks above a modest level are a tacit admission by executives that they cannot find enough capital investments to produce reasonable returns.

The special tax incentives in the new tax act should spur company executives to use this incremental cash to make American capital investments during the next five years. Only during this period will all companies be allowed to deduct immediately the full costs of their U.S. capital investments, instead of deducting these costs gradually over the useful life of these investments.

The economic impact of these new capital investments would be significant for the American economy. Incremental domestic investments of $2.6 trillion over the next five years would be 20% higher than total capital investments by American companies in the previous five years.

So now is the time for public company executives to invest for the future—to create jobs and expand local facilities. If, instead, executives propose to use new cash flows solely to buy back their companies’ stock, independent directors should consider major changes in structure and strategy—and, if needed, in the management team.

Robert C. Pozen is a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and former president of Fidelity Management & Research Company. Robert K. Steel is the CEO of Perella Weinberg Partners and a former undersecretary of the U.S. Treasury Department.