對(duì)于新的中美貿(mào)易協(xié)定,，美國(guó)商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)威爾伯?羅斯在稱(chēng)贊其偉大時(shí)說(shuō)得有點(diǎn)兒過(guò)了,。

“完成這項(xiàng)工作可以說(shuō)是個(gè)巨大成就，”羅斯這樣描述涉及美國(guó)牛肉和液化天然氣對(duì)華出口的貿(mào)易方案,，“它將超過(guò)中美整個(gè)貿(mào)易史上的所有成果,。”

1972年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)理查德?尼克松訪華結(jié)束了兩國(guó)此前20年的冰凍期,，并為美國(guó)最重要的貿(mào)易關(guān)系奠定了基礎(chǔ),，考慮到這些歷史，新的中美貿(mào)易協(xié)定將是一項(xiàng)艱難任務(wù),。去年中美商品貿(mào)易總貨值接近5790億美元,，在美國(guó)外貿(mào)總額中的比重接近六分之一。

除了向中國(guó)出口牛肉和液化天然氣,，此項(xiàng)協(xié)定還會(huì)降低長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)為美國(guó)金融公司設(shè)置的在華經(jīng)營(yíng)門(mén)檻,，同時(shí)允許美國(guó)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口熟制禽肉，美國(guó)還將派代表參加在中國(guó)召開(kāi)的一帶一路論壇,。

羅斯并未說(shuō)明他在上周四介紹情況時(shí)的用詞究竟有何含義,。但貿(mào)易專(zhuān)家對(duì)此項(xiàng)協(xié)定的規(guī)模提出了質(zhì)疑，而其中10項(xiàng)有限共識(shí)則被列為中美兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變,。

另一項(xiàng)結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變是2001年中國(guó)加入世界貿(mào)易組織,。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)?奧特爾、大衛(wèi)?多恩和戈登?漢森的研究顯示,，入世后中國(guó)對(duì)美出口激增,，給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了沖擊，并造成了逾100萬(wàn)美國(guó)制造業(yè)工人失業(yè),。唐納德?特朗普總統(tǒng)已將消除對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差作為他的首要政策目標(biāo)之一,。去年美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差為3470億美元。

貿(mào)易專(zhuān)家迅速指出,，此項(xiàng)協(xié)定主要集中在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品,、能源和金融產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域，和美國(guó)制造業(yè)無(wú)關(guān),，而長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)美國(guó)制造業(yè)一直是中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系緊張的根源,。

布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)高級(jí)研究員、美國(guó)財(cái)政部前官員杜大偉說(shuō)：“這些措施很一般,，本身不會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生多大影響,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

Heralding a new U.S.-China trade agreement, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross puffed a bit too hard in describing its greatness.

"It was pretty much a Herculean accomplishment to get this done," Ross said in describing a trade plan involving U.S. beef and liquefied natural gas exports to China. "This is more than has been done in the whole history of U.S.-China relations on trade."

That would be a tall order, given a history that encompasses President Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China, which ended a two-decade freeze between the two countries and laid the groundwork for the United States' largest trading relationship. U.S.-China exchanges of goods last year totaled nearly $579 billion, nearly one-sixth of all U.S. trade.

In addition to its provisions on beef and liquefied natural gas, the trade deal lowers long-standing barriers on the operation of U.S. financial firms in China, allows the import of cooked poultry from China, and will send U.S. delegates to a Chinese forum on building infrastructure in Asia and Europe.

Ross declined to say exactly what he meant by his characterization at a Thursday briefing. But trade experts questioned its magnitude, and the limited agreement on 10 items joins a list of tectonic shifts between the world's two largest economies.

Another is China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, an event that caused a surge in Chinese exports to the United States and created an economic shock that caused the loss of more than 1 million factory jobs, according to research by economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson. President Donald Trump has made closing the U.S. gap with China—it totaled $347 billion last year—one of his major policy goals.

Trade experts were quick to point out that the agreement, which largely focuses on agricultural goods, energy and financial products, does nothing for U.S. manufacturers, long a source of tension in the relationship with China.

"These are modest moves which by themselves will not have much effect on the U.S. economy," said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury Department official.