大多數(shù)汽車廠商在測(cè)試一款新車型的產(chǎn)品線時(shí),，首先會(huì)用相對(duì)廉價(jià)的工具試產(chǎn)一些原型車，如果車門大小合適,，車身面板造型合理,，儀表盤(pán)沒(méi)有太大的縫隙，就會(huì)將這些廉價(jià)工具棄之不用,，正式投入量產(chǎn),。

然而上個(gè)月特斯拉的CEO馬斯克卻對(duì)投資者表示，為了讓Model 3轎車趕在此前承諾的9月份投入量產(chǎn),，特斯拉現(xiàn)在準(zhǔn)備跳過(guò)試產(chǎn)階段,，直接訂購(gòu)更加昂貴的永久性設(shè)備進(jìn)行量產(chǎn),。

馬斯克的這一決定再次彰顯了他對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的極高容忍度，以及不顧行業(yè)慣常做法的堅(jiān)定意志,，不過(guò)這兩點(diǎn)也正是特斯拉得以顛覆傳統(tǒng)汽車行業(yè)的關(guān)鍵,。特斯拉當(dāng)然并非第一家企圖壓縮生產(chǎn)時(shí)間的汽車廠商，只是其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都沒(méi)有如此大膽,，敢賭公司的生產(chǎn)戰(zhàn)略一定會(huì)成功,。

馬斯克預(yù)計(jì)，Model 3的上市將使特斯拉的年銷量暴增5倍,，以特斯拉當(dāng)前的燒錢速度,，這的確是一個(gè)難以拒絕的誘人目標(biāo)。

奧緯咨詢公司（Oliver Wyman）的生產(chǎn)顧問(wèn)羅恩·哈泊認(rèn)為：“他想試試能從這個(gè)過(guò)程中擠壓出多少時(shí)間和成本,。”

特斯拉從一個(gè)名不見(jiàn)經(jīng)傳的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司到一家舉足輕重的知名汽車廠商只用了短短數(shù)年時(shí)間,，這種火箭般的速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越了任何競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,。投資者們也對(duì)特斯拉的量產(chǎn)成功抱有信心。從1月份到現(xiàn)在,，其股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了39%,。

不過(guò)目前也有一些值得警惕的跡象。一些行業(yè)專家指出,，特斯拉訂購(gòu)的永久性設(shè)備都是為了生產(chǎn)幾百萬(wàn)臺(tái)汽車而設(shè)計(jì)的,，不僅價(jià)格十分昂貴，而且一旦出了問(wèn)題,，它的維修和置換成本也是極高的,。特斯拉當(dāng)前在售的幾款車型產(chǎn)量都不算大，尚且難以避免質(zhì)量問(wèn)題,，而Model 3的產(chǎn)量更是預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到每年50萬(wàn)臺(tái),，如果由于質(zhì)量問(wèn)題造成大規(guī)模的召回或保修，必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致成本的上升,。

《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》（Consumer Report）的記者杰克·費(fèi)舍爾認(rèn)為：“這當(dāng)然是一次試驗(yàn),。”費(fèi)舍爾曾經(jīng)對(duì)特斯拉的Model S和X兩款車型進(jìn)行過(guò)深入評(píng)測(cè),。他認(rèn)為特斯拉是有可能迅速修正潛在問(wèn)題并加快量產(chǎn)流程的,。“否則他們就將面臨一些意想不到的問(wèn)題,，而且要花很大力氣去解決,。”

馬斯克是在上個(gè)月與部分受邀請(qǐng)的投資者通電話時(shí)透露他打算跳過(guò)“試產(chǎn)”環(huán)節(jié)的決定的,。參與此次通話的一名投資者將有關(guān)細(xì)節(jié)發(fā)布在了Reddit網(wǎng)站上,。

馬斯克還表示,，利用計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)行模擬的“先進(jìn)分析技術(shù)”能幫助特斯拉直接進(jìn)入量產(chǎn)。

特斯拉拒絕確認(rèn)關(guān)于此次電話的細(xì)節(jié),，也拒絕對(duì)其產(chǎn)品戰(zhàn)略發(fā)表評(píng)論,。

在特斯拉大趕工期的同時(shí)，其他老牌汽車廠商也沒(méi)有等待觀望,。比如德國(guó)大眾旗下的奧迪公司最近剛剛在墨西哥的一家新工廠啟動(dòng)了生產(chǎn),，而且?jiàn)W迪不僅在生產(chǎn)工具上運(yùn)用了計(jì)算機(jī)模擬技術(shù)，更是在整個(gè)工廠和整條裝配線上都運(yùn)用了這項(xiàng)技術(shù),，奧迪也因此自詡為這方面的行業(yè)第一,。據(jù)奧迪表示，計(jì)算機(jī)模擬技術(shù)的全面使用,，使得工廠的生產(chǎn)速度比以往加快了30%,。

另外需要指出的是，奧迪公司曾參與墨西哥工廠建設(shè)的一位高管彼得·霍赫霍丁格,，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)跳槽為特斯拉公司的生產(chǎn)副總裁了,。

加快工具生產(chǎn)

一般來(lái)說(shuō)，汽車廠商在通過(guò)有限試產(chǎn)測(cè)試其設(shè)計(jì)時(shí),，都會(huì)使用比較低端的且易于改造的設(shè)備進(jìn)行試產(chǎn),，以便隨時(shí)處理試產(chǎn)中暴露的問(wèn)題。等大多數(shù)問(wèn)題解決之后,，廠商才會(huì)訂購(gòu)最終用于量產(chǎn)的設(shè)備,。

據(jù)一位了解特斯拉的這一決定和特斯拉的產(chǎn)品線規(guī)劃的消息人士稱，公司之所以決定跳過(guò)試產(chǎn),，一定程度上也是因?yàn)槲×酥暗慕逃?xùn)——2015年的Model X SUV試產(chǎn)時(shí),，由于低端的“軟工具”試產(chǎn)設(shè)備導(dǎo)致的問(wèn)題太多，甚至影響到了Model X的上市,。

該消息人士還表示,，由于期限卡得很死，特斯拉也沒(méi)有時(shí)間通過(guò)這些“軟工具”查找問(wèn)題,，只能直接訂購(gòu)永久性的生產(chǎn)工具,。

該消息人士表示：“軟工具對(duì)這個(gè)項(xiàng)目的幫助很小，說(shuō)不定還會(huì)壞事,?！?/p>

除此之外，特斯拉也學(xué)會(huì)了更好地改造最終的量產(chǎn)設(shè)備的方法,。2015年,，它收購(gòu)了一家密歇根的工具制造公司，這意味著它能夠以比以往快30%的速度生產(chǎn)主要的造車設(shè)備,，同時(shí)成本也顯著降低了,。

特斯拉急于跳過(guò)試產(chǎn)的另一個(gè)原因是財(cái)務(wù)的壓力,。目前已經(jīng)有37.3萬(wàn)名顧客繳納了1000美元的定金，眼巴巴地等著排隊(duì)提車,。所以特斯拉越早將這款預(yù)計(jì)起售價(jià)35,000美元的Model 3投入量產(chǎn),，就能越早地將這130億美元收入囊中。

自從特斯拉2003年成立以來(lái),，公司背負(fù)的財(cái)務(wù)壓力就一直沒(méi)有減小過(guò),。目前特斯拉仍未進(jìn)入盈利狀態(tài)。今年年初,，馬斯克還曾表示,，公司已經(jīng)到了“現(xiàn)金流耗盡的邊緣”。而該公司光是2017年上半年的資本支出就高達(dá)20至25億美元,。

今年三月,，特斯拉成功地拉來(lái)了12億美元的新鮮資本，并將5%的股權(quán)賣給了中國(guó)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司騰訊控股,，從而再次獲得了一定的呼吸空間,。

馬斯克曾向投資者們暢想道，他的“外星無(wú)敵艦隊(duì)”工廠將使用人工智能和機(jī)器人技術(shù),，以比人類裝配工人快得多的速度生產(chǎn)汽車,。

但是對(duì)處在重重監(jiān)管之下的汽車行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō),，技術(shù)的發(fā)揮空間實(shí)際上是有限的,。比如特斯拉依然需要拿幾輛真車去參加美國(guó)政府強(qiáng)制的碰撞測(cè)試，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的聯(lián)邦法律不允許用計(jì)算機(jī)模擬的碰撞結(jié)果來(lái)代替真實(shí)的碰撞數(shù)據(jù),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Most automakers test a new model's production line by building vehicles with relatively cheap, prototype tools designed to be scrapped once they deliver doors that fit, body panels with the right shape, and dashboards that don't have gaps or seams.

Tesla , however, is skipping that preliminary step and ordering permanent, more expensive equipment as it races to launch its Model 3 sedan by a self-imposed volume production deadline of September, Musk told investors last month.

Musk’s decision underscores his high-risk tolerance and willingness to forego long-held industry norms that has helped Tesla upend the traditional auto industry. While Tesla is not the first automaker to try to accelerate production on the factory floor, no other rival is putting this much faith in the production strategy succeeding.

Musk expects the Model 3 rollout to help Telsa deliver five times its current annual sales volume, a key target in the automaker's efforts to stop burning cash.

"He's pushing the envelope to see how much time and cost he can take out of the process," said Ron Harbour, a manufacturing consultant at Oliver Wyman.

Investors are already counting on Tesla ’s factory floor success, with shares soaring 39% since January as it makes the leap from niche producer to mass producer in far less time than rivals.

There are caution signs, however. The production equipment designed to produce millions of cars is expensive to fix or replace if it doesn't work, industry experts say. Tesla has encountered quality problems on its existing low-volume cars, and the Model 3 is designed to sell in numbers as high as 500,000 vehicles a year, raising the potential cost of recalls or warranty repairs.

"It's an experiment, certainly," said Consumer Reports' Jake Fisher, who has done extensive testing of Tesla 's previous Models S and X. Tesla could possibly fix errors quicker, speeding up the process, "or it could be they have unsuspected problems they'll have a hard time dealing with."

Musk discussed the decision to skip what he referred to as "beta" production testing during a call last month with an invited group of investors. Details were published on Reddit by an investor on the call.

He also said that “advanced analytical techniques” – code word for computer simulations - would help Tesla in advancing straight to production tooling.

Tesla declined to confirm details of the call or comment on its production strategy.

The auto industry's incumbents have not been standing still. Volkswagen AG's (vlkay, +3.31%) Audi division launched production of a new plant in Mexico using computer simulations of production tools – and indeed the entire assembly line and factory - that Audi said it believed to be an industry first. That process allowed the plant to launch production 30% faster than usual, Audi said.

An Audi executive involved in the Mexican plant launch, Peter Hochholdinger, is now Tesla 's vice president of production.

MAKING TOOLS FASTER

Typically, automakers test their design with limited production using lower grade equipment that can be modified slightly to address problems. When most of the kinks are worked out, they order the final equipment.

Tesla ’s decision to move directly to the final tools is in part because lower grade, disposable equipment known as “soft tooling” ended up complicating the debut of the problem-plagued Model X SUV in 2015, according to a person familiar with the decision and Tesla ’s assembly line planning.

Working on a tight deadline, Tesla had no time to incorporate lessons learned from soft tooling before having to order the permanent production tooling, making the former's value negligible, the source said.

"Soft tooling did very little for the program and arguably hurt things," said the person.

In addition, Tesla has learned to better modify final production tools, and its 2015 purchase of a Michigan tooling company means it can make major equipment 30% faster than before, and more cheaply as well, the source said.

Financial pressure is partly driving Tesla ’s haste. The quicker Tesla can deliver the Model 3 with its estimated $35,000 base price to the 373,000 customers who have put down a $1000 deposit, the closer it can log $13 billion.

Tesla has labored under financial pressure since it was founded in 2003. The company has yet to turn an annual profit, and earlier this year Musk said the company was "close to the edge" as it look toward capital spending of $2-2.5 billion in the first half of 2017.

Tesla has since gotten more breathing room by raising $1.2 billion in fresh capital in March and selling a 5% stake to Chinese internet company Tencent Holdings (tcehy, +1.02%).

Musk has spoken to investors about his vision of an "alien dreadnought" factory that uses artificial intelligence and robots to build cars at speeds faster than human assembly workers could manage.

But there are limits to what technology can do in the heavily regulated car business. For example, Tesla will still have to use real cars in crash tests required by the U.S. government, because federal rules do not allow simulated crash results to substitute for data from a real car.