增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)涵蓋了所有利用數(shù)字信息,，無(wú)縫強(qiáng)化現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的技術(shù),。在未來(lái)十年里，增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)如我們所知的那樣,，取代智能手機(jī)和平板電腦等設(shè)備的屏幕,。上一季度，蘋(píng)果有69%的收入來(lái)自iPhone,，7%來(lái)自iPad,，另外在這些平臺(tái)上銷售的應(yīng)用，蘋(píng)果也都能按一定比例抽成,。如果蘋(píng)果無(wú)法主宰增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域,，那么隨著使用增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)的硬件取代智能手機(jī)，成為我們聯(lián)系世界的主要接口,，蘋(píng)果將會(huì)有四分之三甚至更多的業(yè)務(wù)消失,。

對(duì)蘋(píng)果而言的好消息是，公司內(nèi)部的文化可以讓他們行動(dòng)起來(lái),，把重心從當(dāng)下的智能手機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)向未來(lái)由增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)優(yōu)化過(guò)的智能手機(jī)和可穿戴設(shè)備,。

增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)會(huì)以我們的智能手機(jī)作為載體，我們當(dāng)中許多人使用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)時(shí)甚至沒(méi)有意識(shí)到這點(diǎn),。例如,，Snapchat的透鏡可以讓用戶在通訊時(shí)改變自己的臉型,，增加狗耳朵或是玻璃缸的背景。另一個(gè)案例則是2016年火爆的《精靈寶可夢(mèng)Go》（Pokemon Go）,，玩家可以造訪現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的地點(diǎn),，捕捉游戲中的精靈。

這些早期的應(yīng)用看起來(lái)可能只是些噱頭,，不過(guò)未來(lái)的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)會(huì)有更強(qiáng)的實(shí)用性,。例如可以用視線的轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)來(lái)翻動(dòng)書(shū)頁(yè)，而不用親手操作,；利用面部識(shí)別幫助回憶某些人與你的關(guān)系,；過(guò)濾背景音的耳機(jī)可以讓你在嘈雜環(huán)境下聽(tīng)清對(duì)話；衣物則會(huì)根據(jù)天氣來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)溫度,，這些先進(jìn)的產(chǎn)品會(huì)讓我們驚嘆自己在沒(méi)有真正的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)之前,，是怎么活了那么久。

谷歌（Google）,、微軟（Microsoft）和Facebook也在增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域展開(kāi)了競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。谷歌在增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)上占有優(yōu)勢(shì)，而蘋(píng)果則手握一張勝過(guò)其他所有公司的王牌：設(shè)計(jì),。

想要實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)世界持久,、無(wú)縫的增強(qiáng)，增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)需要植入可穿戴設(shè)備才能有足夠的吸引力,。人們討論最多的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的應(yīng)用,，就是某些形式的聯(lián)網(wǎng)眼鏡。盡管眼鏡可能將成為智能手機(jī)之外的一種增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備,，但音頻設(shè)備,、手表，甚至聯(lián)網(wǎng)服裝也可以成為增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)的載體,。正如所有的服裝和配件一樣,，消費(fèi)者會(huì)要求可穿戴的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備看起來(lái)時(shí)尚、不違和,，搭載的計(jì)算機(jī)也不要過(guò)于明顯（谷歌眼鏡在這些方面都做得不好）,。因此，設(shè)計(jì),，而非功能,，才是增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)從智能手機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)向未來(lái)的計(jì)算接口的首要因素。

沒(méi)有哪家公司的電子產(chǎn)品比蘋(píng)果的更加時(shí)尚,。谷歌和微軟的核心設(shè)計(jì)實(shí)力不足,，無(wú)法打造出讓消費(fèi)者嘆服的可穿戴產(chǎn)品，這意味著他們很可能把重點(diǎn)放在軟件開(kāi)發(fā)上。而蘋(píng)果就能因此獲得整合優(yōu)質(zhì)軟硬件的熟悉位置,。

我們之前看過(guò)這樣的劇情,。微軟統(tǒng)治了個(gè)人電腦的市場(chǎng)份額，蘋(píng)果遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)地排在第二位,。谷歌的安卓（Android）也統(tǒng)治了智能手機(jī)的市場(chǎng)份額,，蘋(píng)果又一次遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)排在第二。但蘋(píng)果在這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)都掌控了硬件和軟件,，提供了最好的用戶體驗(yàn),，這也讓公司在業(yè)內(nèi)獲取了遠(yuǎn)超市場(chǎng)份額比例的巨額利潤(rùn)。

那么蘋(píng)果在增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域會(huì)有怎樣的未來(lái),？按照他們典型的創(chuàng)新模式,，蘋(píng)果如今正在進(jìn)行小規(guī)模的摸索。首先是公司的新款無(wú)線耳機(jī)AirPods,。這是一款早期的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)產(chǎn)品,，可以與聲控個(gè)人助手Siri保持聯(lián)系。AirPods展現(xiàn)了蘋(píng)果的設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì),，考慮到對(duì)產(chǎn)品的高要求,，供應(yīng)量還很有限。其次,，蘋(píng)果上周發(fā)布了新的視頻應(yīng)用Clips，用戶可以給視頻信息加上特效,，就像用Snapchat的透鏡一樣,。第三，今年秋天即將上市的新一代iPhone據(jù)說(shuō)會(huì)搭載3D地圖芯片,，這可以讓蘋(píng)果和第三方開(kāi)發(fā)者通過(guò)新的方式與用戶環(huán)境互動(dòng),，這也將成為蘋(píng)果第一款優(yōu)化了增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)的智能手機(jī)。這類手機(jī)可以縮小如今的智能手機(jī)與未來(lái)的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)可穿戴設(shè)備之間的鴻溝,，在未來(lái)三到五年內(nèi)擴(kuò)大智能手機(jī)的適用范圍,，使之成為占主導(dǎo)地位的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備。

在這些小規(guī)模的探索之外,，蘋(píng)果也非同尋常地表示了對(duì)于增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的興趣,。今年2月，蘋(píng)果的首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫(kù)克表示,，他把增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)看作“智能手機(jī)一樣的重要想法”,。不過(guò)，庫(kù)克也承認(rèn)：“增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的普及還需要一段時(shí)間,，因?yàn)檫€有一些很難解決的技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn),。”主要的難題之一，就是在實(shí)現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量體驗(yàn)和長(zhǎng)續(xù)航時(shí)間的同時(shí),，把配件做得足夠小,。蘋(píng)果很可能已經(jīng)開(kāi)始研發(fā)一款可穿戴眼鏡，然而我們想要見(jiàn)到成品,，最早也得到2019年,，原因只有一個(gè)：用戶體驗(yàn)。蘋(píng)果不會(huì)放出體驗(yàn)糟糕的半成品,。兩年的等待可能令人失望,，不過(guò)蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)證明，即便競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者已經(jīng)進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)多年,，他們憑借更好的產(chǎn)品也能后來(lái)居上占領(lǐng)好位置,。

史蒂夫·喬布斯砍掉了那些沒(méi)有特色的蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品，因?yàn)樗廊绻O(píng)果不去做,，其他人也可以做,。這種導(dǎo)向依舊深深扎根于公司的DNA里。蘋(píng)果的增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)困境不在于是否要取消iPhone,，而是公司要花多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能合理地做到這一點(diǎn),。他們的等待將是值得的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

本文作者吉恩·蒙斯特,、道格·克林頓和安德魯·墨菲是Loup Ventures的任事股東,。蒙斯特和墨菲是蘋(píng)果的投資人，墨菲還是谷歌的投資人,。

AR includes any technology that uses digital information to seamlessly enhance the real world. Over the next 10 years, AR will replace the screen as we know it, including those of smartphones and tablets. Apple generated 69% of its revenue from the iPhone and 7% from the iPad last quarter; additionally, the company takes a cut of all software sold on those platforms. If Apple doesn’t find a way to dominate AR, it could see three-quarters or more of its business disappear as new AR-focused hardware supplants the smartphone as our interface to the world.

The good news for Apple is that it’s culturally built to make the move from the smartphones of today to the AR-optimized smartphones and wearables of the future.

AR is delivered through our smartphones, and many of us use the technology without even thinking about it. For example, Snapchat’s lenses allow users to change what their face looks like in messages, adding dog ears or an aquarium background. Another example is thePokemon Go craze of 2016; gamers visited real-world locations to catch characters in the game.

These early applications may seem gimmicky, but the AR of the future will enable far more utility. Use cases like dynamic visual how-to manuals for hands-on work, facial recognition to help recall details about a relationship with someone you’re with, earphones that filter out background noise so you can only hear your conversation in a noisy environment, and clothing that adjusts its temperature based on the weather will make us wonder how we ever lived without true AR.

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are also competing in the AR space. While Google holds an advantage in building up a data base to use with the technology, Apple holds a trump card over all the others: design.

To enable persistent, seamless augmentation of the real world, compelling AR will require the adoption of wearables. The most talked about device for AR delivery is some form of connected glasses. While glasses will likely be an enabler of AR beyond the smartphone, audio devices, watches, and even connected clothing also belong in the AR category. As with all clothing and accessories, consumers will require wearable AR devices to look fashionable, unobtrusive, and not obviously a computer (Google Glass failed at all of these). Therefore, design, not function, is the most important factor for AR to make the leap from a smartphone feature to the computing interface of the future.

No one makes more fashionable electronics than Apple. Neither Google nor Microsoft has the core design competency to create compelling consumer product designs for wearables, which means they will most likely be relegated to primarily providing software. That puts Apple in the familiar position of integrating premium hardware and software.

We’ve seen this game before. Microsoft dominates PC market share, with Apple a distant second. Google’s Android dominates smartphone market share, with Apple again a distant second. In both cases, Apple offers the best user experience by controlling both the hardware and software, which allows the company to capture an outsized portion of industry profits relative to their total unit share.

So what’s next for Apple in AR? True to their typical pattern of innovation, Apple is taking baby steps. First, AirPods, the company’s new wireless earphones, represent an early AR product that enables a constant connection with the voice-activated personal assistant Siri. The AirPods show Apple’s design advantage and remain limited in supply given the high demand for them. Second, Apple announced its Clips video app last week, which lets users add effects to video messages like they can with Snapchat’s lenses. Third, the next iPhone, coming this fall, is rumored to include a 3D mapping chip that would enable Apple and third-party developers to interact with a user’s environment in new ways—Apple’s first AR-optimized smartphone. The AR-optimized smartphone bridges the gap from the smartphones of today to the AR wearables of tomorrow, extending the runway of the smartphone as the predominant AR device for the next three to five years.

Beyond these baby steps, Apple has been uncharacteristically vocal about its interest in AR. In February, CEO Tim Cook said he views AR as “a big idea like the smartphone.” However, Cook also admitted, “AR is going to take a while because there are some really hard technology challenges there.” The main challenges include miniaturization of the components necessary to deliver a high-quality experience and battery capacity. Apple is probably already working on a wearable glasses product, but 2019 would likely be the earliest we see Apple Glasses for one reason: user experience. Apple will not release a product that is half-baked and provides a poor user experience. A two-year wait for Apple Glasses may be disappointing, but Apple has shown that it is comfortable entering a market well after its competitors so long as it offers a better product.

Steve Jobs killed off Apple products that weren’t exceptional because he knew that if he didn’t do it, someone else would. That guidance remains deeply ingrained in the company’s DNA. Apple's AR dilemma isn’t whether or not to kill the iPhone, but how long it will take the company to viably do so. It’ll be worth the wait.