2017年1月5日,，印尼雅加達(dá)，加油站的加油業(yè)務(wù)

出于對(duì)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量迅速反彈的擔(dān)憂,，新年剛剛進(jìn)入第二周,，石油價(jià)格便開(kāi)始搖搖欲墜。在兩個(gè)月來(lái)的大部分時(shí)間,，對(duì)于歐佩克協(xié)議的樂(lè)觀情緒支撐著油價(jià),，但投機(jī)商們的樂(lè)觀情緒已經(jīng)初步表現(xiàn)出消退的跡象，這也提高了油價(jià)上漲將失去動(dòng)力的可能性,。

上周末有報(bào)道顯示,，美國(guó)鉆井?dāng)?shù)量再次穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，石油行業(yè)油田鉆井?dāng)?shù)量已經(jīng)連續(xù)10周保持增長(zhǎng),，因此在周一,，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油和布倫特原油在當(dāng)日交易中下跌超過(guò)2.5%。除了去年10月的一個(gè)星期外,，從2016年6月開(kāi)始,，美國(guó)石油行業(yè)的鉆井?dāng)?shù)量一直在增加，這一不平常的趨勢(shì)所帶來(lái)的結(jié)果是,，美國(guó)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)新增200多座石油鉆井,。即便當(dāng)石油價(jià)格穩(wěn)定在每桶50至55美元左右時(shí)，鉆井?dāng)?shù)量依舊在增加,。

2017年伊始,，同時(shí)出現(xiàn)了兩個(gè)重要的趨勢(shì),，推動(dòng)著市場(chǎng)向兩個(gè)相反的方向發(fā)展。歐佩克的協(xié)議計(jì)劃減少市場(chǎng)石油供應(yīng),，而美國(guó)的鉆探活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加新的供應(yīng),。這兩個(gè)趨勢(shì)的速度和量級(jí)，最終將決定油價(jià)的走勢(shì),。

樂(lè)觀的一面是,，已經(jīng)有初步跡象顯示，歐佩克成員國(guó)將遵守承諾,。沙特阿拉伯在上周宣布,，1月將石油產(chǎn)量減少486,000桶/天，這也是其在去年11月的協(xié)議中承諾削減的產(chǎn)量,。這意味著,，沙特的石油產(chǎn)量將下降到每天1,005.8萬(wàn)桶，在1月至6月期間,，利雅得的平均產(chǎn)量?jī)H需維持到這一水平即可,。提前削減產(chǎn)量表明了沙特的誠(chéng)意，也增加了歐佩克遵守承諾的可能性,。

除此之外,，科威特駐歐佩克的代表說(shuō)，卡塔爾,、科威特和阿曼也將遵守削減產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議,。在接受彭博社采訪時(shí),，科威特的納維爾·阿爾-費(fèi)塞亞表示,，這些國(guó)家已經(jīng)告知客戶它們即將執(zhí)行削減產(chǎn)量的計(jì)劃。阿爾-費(fèi)塞亞稱：“在削減產(chǎn)量階段,，可以對(duì)油田進(jìn)行維護(hù)?！彼硎?，科威特的石油產(chǎn)量將從去年12月的289萬(wàn)桶/天,，減少至1月底的270萬(wàn)桶/天,。

伊拉克位于波斯灣的南部港口在去年12月的石油出口量創(chuàng)歷史新高的新聞,，曾經(jīng)引起了市場(chǎng)分析師的關(guān)注，但這一數(shù)據(jù)與伊拉克是否會(huì)遵守產(chǎn)量削減協(xié)議無(wú)關(guān),。伊拉克石油部長(zhǎng)賈巴爾·阿魯艾比通過(guò)電子郵件對(duì)彭博社表示：“平均出口量創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄，并不影響伊拉克從2017年開(kāi)始削減產(chǎn)量的決心,。伊拉克將致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)油國(guó)的共同目標(biāo),，以控制全球市場(chǎng)的石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩?！?

雖然現(xiàn)在說(shuō)仍為時(shí)尚早,，但所有跡象均表明，歐佩克遵守產(chǎn)量削減承諾的決心,，比市場(chǎng)分析師預(yù)期的更為強(qiáng)烈,。這預(yù)示著供應(yīng)過(guò)剩將不斷縮小,，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)供不應(yīng)求,，降低庫(kù)存,。換言之,，歐佩克將成功給石油價(jià)格施加上行壓力,。

但天平的另一方面,，則是美國(guó)鉆探速度加快，鉆井?dāng)?shù)量持續(xù)增加,。據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）每周的調(diào)查顯示,，美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量從夏季的低谷增加了約300,000桶/天,，而在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，隨著鉆探活動(dòng)加快,，石油供應(yīng)還會(huì)繼續(xù)增多,。

目前尚無(wú)法確定,，美國(guó)日益提高的供應(yīng)與歐佩克不斷削減的產(chǎn)量，最終將如何抵消,。當(dāng)前的普遍觀點(diǎn)是，在2017年上半年,，市場(chǎng)狀況將不斷收緊,，但下半年的不確定性大增，不過(guò)目前仍然需要拭目以待,。

現(xiàn)在可以確定的是,，石油投機(jī)商大規(guī)模做多石油,，已經(jīng)使原油價(jià)格面臨短期下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道,，去年12月的最后一周，對(duì)沖基金和其他財(cái)富管理機(jī)構(gòu)累積的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油和布倫特原油凈多頭頭寸已經(jīng)相當(dāng)于7.96億桶,，幾乎比11月中旬增加了一倍,。很顯然，歐佩克的協(xié)議將刺激對(duì)石油價(jià)格上漲的投機(jī)行為,，而這通常意味著原油價(jià)格的實(shí)際上漲，這并非巧合,。

但目前,，石油空頭頭寸非常少,，同時(shí)已經(jīng)建立起規(guī)模龐大的多頭頭寸。我們由此可以得出兩個(gè)結(jié)論,，這兩個(gè)結(jié)論都將看跌油價(jià)： 目前已經(jīng)沒(méi)有太多做多的資金,，因此降低了油價(jià)繼續(xù)上漲的可能性； 目前價(jià)格回落的可能性非常高,。事實(shí)上,，在最近有可用數(shù)據(jù)的一周，凈多頭的頭寸已經(jīng)略有減少,，進(jìn)一步證明看漲押注可能已經(jīng)達(dá)到最高峰?，F(xiàn)在只需要一些看跌的消息,，便會(huì)引發(fā)價(jià)格的下跌趨勢(shì)。

未來(lái)幾周,，可能突然出現(xiàn)一些次要的令人擔(dān)憂的油價(jià)信號(hào),，加劇看空行情。美國(guó)能源部（DOE）在1月9日宣布將出售其戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備,，計(jì)劃在2月,、3月和4月，出售800萬(wàn)桶,。與此同時(shí),，據(jù)最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在利比亞主要出口碼頭重新開(kāi)放之后,，其石油出口量將迅速增長(zhǎng),，石油產(chǎn)量大幅增長(zhǎng)至700,000桶/天,，其在去年11月的產(chǎn)量為580,000桶/天，而在去年夏天,，利比亞產(chǎn)量開(kāi)始恢復(fù)之前的出口量為300,000桶/天,。此外，與利比亞一樣不參與歐佩克協(xié)議的尼日利亞,，也計(jì)劃恢復(fù)生產(chǎn),。不過(guò)，其國(guó)內(nèi)的跨尼日爾管道（Trans Niger Pipeline）于近期關(guān)閉,，石油工人工會(huì)可能舉行罷工,，尼日爾河三角洲復(fù)仇者（Niger Delta Avengers）又宣布將在今年繼續(xù)發(fā)起攻擊，因此,，尼日利亞恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)的工作可能會(huì)面臨困難,。事實(shí)上，在去年12月,，由于這些問(wèn)題的影響,，尼日利亞的產(chǎn)量似乎已經(jīng)開(kāi)始下降，減少了200,000桶/天,，降至145萬(wàn)桶/天,。但如果尼日利亞能夠克服這些問(wèn)題，其潛在的生產(chǎn)能力可能隨時(shí)爆發(fā),。

周末,，波斯灣的混亂并沒(méi)有影響石油價(jià)格，也表明油價(jià)沒(méi)有太多上漲的空間,。一艘美國(guó)驅(qū)逐艦對(duì)伊朗船只進(jìn)行了三次警告性射擊,，在過(guò)去，這種事件可能會(huì)引發(fā)原油價(jià)格的大幅波動(dòng),，雖然可能持續(xù)時(shí)間較短,。相反，市場(chǎng)對(duì)此事件不屑一顧——在事件發(fā)生后的首個(gè)交易日,，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油和布倫特原油價(jià)格因?yàn)椴幌嚓P(guān)的消息出現(xiàn)了下跌,。瑞穗證券美國(guó)公司（Mizuho Securities USA Inc.）期貨部門總監(jiān)鮑勃·楊格爾對(duì)彭博社表示：“市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在處于超買的狀態(tài)，面臨著巨大的下行壓力,。美國(guó)軍艦在霍爾木茲海峽射擊伊朗船只,，并未對(duì)市場(chǎng)造成影響,。如果在幾年前,，油價(jià)肯定會(huì)因此上漲一兩美元?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

Refueling activities at gas stations in Jakarta, Indonesia on January 5, 2017.

Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.

WTI and Brent sank more than 2.5 percent in intraday trading on Monday, after a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added rigs back into the field. Aside from a single week in October, the U.S. oil industry has deployed more rigs in every week dating back to June, a remarkable run that has resulted in more than 200 fresh rigs drilling for oil. The gains in the rig count come even as oil prices have held steady in the mid—to low—$50s per barrel.

At the start of 2017, there are two major dynamics at play occurring at the same time, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is slated to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. The pace and magnitude of each trend will ultimately drive oil prices one way or the other.

On the positive side of the ledger, there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that Riyadh was only required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. Cutting to that level ahead of time is a sign of good faith from Saudi Arabia, and increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

On top of that, Kuwait’s envoy to OPEC said that Qatar, Kuwait and Oman were also complying with the cuts. In an interview with Bloomberg, Kuwait’s Nawal Al-Fezaia said that those countries already told customers that cuts were imminent. “It’s a good time to do maintenance on oil fields during production cuts,” Al-Fezaia said, noting that Kuwait will lower output from 2.89 mb/d in December to 2.7 mb/d by the end of January.

Market analysts paused a bit on news that Iraq’s oil exports from its southern ports on the Persian Gulf hit a record high in December, but the data has no bearing on whether or not Iraq will comply with the agreed upon cuts. “Achieving this record average will not affect Iraq’s decision to cut output from the beginning of 2017,” Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi told Bloomberg in an emailed statement. “Iraq is committed to achieving producers’ joint goals to control the oil glut in world markets.”

It is still early but all signs point to a stronger commitment from OPEC to adhere to the specifics of the cuts than market analysts might have given them credit for. That bodes well for a narrowing supply surplus—and ultimately a deficit—as well as falling inventories. In other words, OPEC is succeeding in putting upward pressure on prices.

However, the flip side of the equation is faster drilling from the U.S., where rig counts continue to climb. Oil output, according to EIA weekly surveys, is up roughly 300,000 bpd from summer lows, with more supply expected to come online in the months ahead as drilling picks up pace.

It is unclear, at this point, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out. For now, the consensus seems to be tightening conditions in the first half of 2017, with much greater uncertainty in the second half, but that remains to be seen.

What is clear is that oil speculators have built up such a large bullish bet on oil that they have opened up crude to near-term downside risk. According to Reuters, hedge funds and other money managers amassed net-long positions in WTI and Brent equivalent to 796 million barrels in the last week of December, which was nearly double the amount from mid-November. The OPEC deal clearly fueled a huge speculative rush in rising oil prices, which, not coincidentally, corresponded with real gains in crude prices.

But at this point, there are very few short positions left in oil, while a massive volume of long bets have built up. That suggests two things, both of which are bearish for oil: there is not a lot of money left to go long, lowering the chances of further prices gains; and the potential for a correction in prices is very high at this point. Indeed, in the most recent week for which data is available, net-long positions declined a bit, raising the possibility that bullish bets have peaked. All it will take is a bit of bearish news to spark a downturn in prices.

There are a few minor worrying signs for oil prices that could crop up as additional bearish forces in the next few weeks. The U.S. DOE announced on January 9 a “notice of sale” from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output jumping to 700,000 bpd, according to the latest data, up sharply from the 580,000 it produced in November and the 300,000 bpd it exported before it started restoring output last summer. Moreover, Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal—is intent on restoring production. It may struggle to do that with the recent shuttering of the Trans Niger Pipeline, potential strikes from oil workers unions and the announcement from the Niger Delta Avengers that attacks will resume this year. In fact, production appears to have declined in December, falling 200,000 bpd to 1.45 mb/d, because of some of these issues. But if those problems can be overcome, Nigeria has latent production capacity that could come back online at some point.

And in a sign that there is not a lot of room on the upside, a kerfuffle in the Persian Gulf over the weekend did nothing to affect oil prices. A U.S. Navy destroyer fired three warning shots towards Iranian ships, an incident that in the past would have led to a sharp, even if brief, rally in crude prices. Instead, the markets shrugged off the incident—WTI and Brent sank on the first trading day after the event, on unrelated news. "The market is overbought and under a lot of downward pressure," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., told Bloomberg. "The shots fired at the Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz didn’t do anything to the market. A few years ago that would have added a couple dollars to the price."