中國企業(yè)招聘規(guī)模大幅度下降

數據分析機構CBB的一項調查顯示,今年第一季度中國企業(yè)的資本支出降到了至少五年來的最低點,。這充分表明,,雖然政府出臺了各項政策防止經濟劇烈滑坡,但中國經濟依然表現乏力,。 CBB的這項季度性調查覆蓋2200多家公司,。調查結果還表明,企業(yè)的招聘規(guī)模下降,。隨著公司管理層壓縮借貸和支出,,就業(yè)連續(xù)第二個季度面臨下行壓力。 調查中只有33%的公司一季度資本支出上升,,也是此項調查開展五年來的最低水平,。 2014年第二季度以來,資本支出上升的受訪公司所占的比例已經下降了40%以上,。 但調查表明,,由于收入穩(wěn)定增長,今年一季度公司利潤高于上季度的低點,。 利蘭德?米勒和謝赫扎德?卡齊在調查報告中寫道:“今年一季度中國經濟是否再次整體下滑還不明朗,。但政策方面的挑戰(zhàn)有所增加,因此中國政府或許會認為經濟更疲弱,?!?/p> 多年來,經濟學家一直對中國的官方數據表示懷疑,。為更好地把握中國這個全球第二大經濟體的風吹草動,,他們轉向參考CBB等民間機構的調查結果以及水泥,、鋼鐵產量或發(fā)電量等指標。 上周,,國務院副總理張高麗在一個高層經濟論壇上表示,,截至3月初的數據表明中國經濟正在好轉。 CBB的調查結果顯示,,今年前兩個月中國工業(yè)產值增速降至2008年以來的最低點,,進出口規(guī)模繼續(xù)下降,只有固定資產投資增長率超過了預期,,原因是房地產投資速度加快,。 調查表明,,一季度員工人數增加的公司僅占23%,,是2012年CBB首次進行此項調查時的一半。 調查報告指出:“2009-2010年的過度增長過后,,借貸和支出水平下降是不可避免的,。招人規(guī)模下降的問題則要尖銳得多?!?/p> CBB調查發(fā)現中國企業(yè)發(fā)展壓力漸增,,這也與路透社上周的分析不謀而合,路透社稱由于客戶的付款周期變長,,中國公司的流動性處于10年來最緊張的狀態(tài),。部分企業(yè)為了維持經營被迫尋求成本更高、安全性更低的資金,。 國務院總理李克強上周四表示,,今年前兩個月國內就業(yè)保持穩(wěn)定,調查失業(yè)率約為5.1%,。但外界普遍認為,,中國的實際失業(yè)率要高得多。 2015年中國經濟增長率為6.9%,,降至25年來的最低點,。今年中國政府設定的增長目標為6.5%-7%。 雖然更傾向于通過增加財政支出和減稅來促進經濟增長,,以及減輕結構性改革的陣痛,,但中國政府也表示,今年將采取更靈活的貨幣政策,。(財富中文網) 譯者:Charlie 審校:夏林 |
Capital expenditure by Chinese companies fell to the lowest in at least five years in the first quarter, a private survey showed, highlighting persistent weakness in the economy even as the government ratchets up policy support to head off a sharper slowdown. The quarterly survey of over 2,200 firms by China Beige Book International (CBB) also showed less hiring by companies, marking the second consecutive quarter of downward pressure on employment as executives scale back borrowing and spending. Only 33% of firms reported capital expenditure growth in the first quarter, the lowest in the survey’s five-year history. The share of firms reporting capex growth has fallen by over 40% since the second quarter of 2014. However, profits in the first quarter improved from the previous quarter’s lows as revenue growth steadied, the survey showed. “It’s unclear whether the economy as a whole weakened again in the first quarter. But policy challenges appear to have grown, and Beijing therefore may perceive the economy as weaker,” survey report authors Leland Miller and Shehzad Qazi wrote. Economists have questioned China’s official statistics for years and turn to private surveys such as the CBB and measures such as concrete, steel or electricity production to better gauge changes in the world’s second-largest economy. Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli told a high-level economic forum last week that recent data through early March showed that the economy is improving. The latest reported data showed factory output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, while exports and imports continued to shrink, although fixed-asset investment growth beat expectations due to quickening property investment. The survey showed just 23% of firms expanded their workforces in the first quarter, falling to half of what CCB reported in its inaugural report back in 2012. “Less borrowing and spending was necessary after the 2009-10 excesses. Less hiring is a much more pointed problem,” it said. The survey’s findings of growing strains on corporate China echo those of a Reuters analysis last week, which showed Chinese companies are facing their tightest liquidity crunch in a decade as customers take longer to pay their bills, forcing some into more costly and less secure borrowing to stay afloat. Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China’s employment was stable in the first two months of 2016, with a survey-based jobless rate at about 5.1%, though the real jobless rate is widely believed to be much higher. The government has set a growth target of 6.5% to 7% for 2016, after the economy expanded 6.9% in 2015—the slowest pace in 25 years. Beijing has pledged to make monetary policy more flexible this year even as it leans more on increased fiscal spending and tax cuts to support economic growth and cushion the pain from structural reforms. |