盡管如此,，細(xì)心的觀察家們?nèi)钥梢蕴崆鞍l(fā)現(xiàn)很多能夠影響世界格局的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì),。例如，不少專家曾認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年沒有能力去加息,，然而,，只要仔細(xì)研究一下數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)12月的加息舉措也并非難事,。2016年,，新的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)將涌現(xiàn)或迅速發(fā)展，對(duì)我們的世界形成或好或壞的影響,。以下是2016年的五大經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì),。

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Every year brings its share of economic events that take us by surprise. Few people predicted the collapse in oil prices that started in the summer of 2014, or were able to time the sharp decline in economic growth in China that started a few months ago.

That said, many of the economic trends that shape our world can be spotted ahead of time by careful observers. For instance, many pundits argued that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be able to raise rates this year, but a close examination of the data would have enabled you to predict the Fed’s December liftoff. In 2016, new economic trends will emerge or gain steam, and shape the world we live in for the better or worse. Here are the top five:

美國仍將是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎

隨便找一個(gè)普通的美國人，如果你告訴他美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是主要國家中增長(zhǎng)最快的,，他會(huì)很驚訝,。然而，雖然美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)慢,，其他發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速比美國還慢,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速又出現(xiàn)大幅下滑，事實(shí)就是如此,。

中國政府表示,，中國的GDP增速已在2015年降至6.9%，明年預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到6.8%,，而在過去10年中,，其年均增速一直保持在10%以上。聽起來比美國2.5%-3%的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)高得多,。然而,，很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)中國官方數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性持懷疑態(tài)度,，他們估計(jì)中國明年的增速更接近3%-4%。

更為重要的是,，到目前為止,，美國是全球最大的貿(mào)易赤字國，這意味著其他經(jīng)濟(jì)大國,，例如德國,、日本和中國，都要靠美國的需求來推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。盡管中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人意識(shí)到中國經(jīng)濟(jì)必須從投資和出口型向消費(fèi)型轉(zhuǎn)變,，但預(yù)計(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在2016年仍將繼續(xù)依賴美國消費(fèi)者。

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The Global Economy Will Continue to Be Powered by America

If you ask the average American, he would be surprised to find out that the U.S. economy's performance is best in class. But with the rest of the wealthy world growing even more slowly than America, and with the collapse in economic growth in China, that's exactly what it's become.

The Chinese government says that GDP growth there has slowed to 6.9% in 2015, and that it will grow by 6.8% next year after averaging more than 10% for the past decade. That sounds much faster than the 2.5% to 3% growth expected here at home, but many economists doubt the accuracy of Chinese government numbers, estimating that growth will be closer to 3% to 4% in the years to come.

But more important, the United States has by far the largest trade deficit in the world, which means that the other big economies like Germany, Japan, and China are dependent on U.S. demand for their economies to grow. While Chinese leaders recognize that it's imperative for their economy to shift from an investment and export model to one built around consumer spending, expect global economy to continue to lean on the U.S. consumer in 2016.

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中國將持續(xù)溫和增長(zhǎng)

多年來,，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速一直是美國的三倍,，令全世界為之側(cè)目。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)靠的是政府主導(dǎo)的投資以及對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國家的大規(guī)模出口,。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)安然度過了上一場(chǎng)全球金融危機(jī),，沒有出現(xiàn)重大的衰退，當(dāng)然也是靠著大規(guī)模的政府刺激政策,，這些政策也進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)了中國的投資拉動(dòng)型增長(zhǎng),。

然而，這些投資的很大一部分都源于不斷增長(zhǎng)的債務(wù)而不是利潤(rùn),，其中既有政府債務(wù),，也有企業(yè)債務(wù)。隨著消費(fèi)支出推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的壓力增大,，中國必須下大力氣將財(cái)富從有權(quán)有勢(shì)的政府官員和國企管理者手中轉(zhuǎn)移到普通家庭里,。然而，在政治上很有困難,，也不會(huì)迅速實(shí)現(xiàn),。預(yù)計(jì)中國將在2016年和此后的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)將繼續(xù)行走于坎坷的轉(zhuǎn)型之路上。

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China Will Stay Stuck in Second Gear

For years, the world has watched as China posted economic growth rates three times as fast as the United States, built on the back of government-directed capital investment and massive exports to the wealthy world. The Chinese economy blew past the global financial crisis without so much as flinching, again with the help of massive government stimulus that enabled further investment-led growth.

But much of this investment was enabled by growing debt, both government and corporate, rather than profits. China must do the hard work of shifting wealth from powerful government officials and managers of state-owned enterprises to Chinese households, with consumer spending carrying more of the economic burden. This will, however, be politically difficult and won't happen overnight. Expect this bumpy transition to continue in 2016 and beyond.

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大宗商品的價(jià)格將下跌

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的大幅下滑讓大宗商品經(jīng)歷了2008年以來最差的一年,。2015年,，彭博大宗商品指數(shù)下跌了26%。由于中國是大宗商品這一全球經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的主要需求國,，分析師們預(yù)計(jì)2016年大宗商品的價(jià)格難有起色,。

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Commodities Will Be Cheap

The collapse in Chinese growth helped commodities class have its worst year since 2008, with the Bloomberg commodities index falling 26% in 2015. As China was the main source of demand for the basic building blocks of the global economy, analysts expect commodities to remain soft in 2016.

歐洲將逼近危機(jī)邊緣

或許在很多美國人眼中，歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)已經(jīng)成為了過去時(shí),，然而，這一問題仍在繼續(xù)發(fā)酵,。歐元區(qū)的失業(yè)率仍維持在10.7%的高位,，而歐盟第五大經(jīng)濟(jì)體西班牙的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)超過21%,。雖然歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)目前正在緩慢增長(zhǎng)，失業(yè)率也在慢慢下降,，但導(dǎo)致危機(jī)的歐盟各國經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡問題依然存在,。

歐盟各國生產(chǎn)力水平相差很大，比如希臘和德國之間,，一方面德國的出口享受了不公平的優(yōu)勢(shì),，另一方面生產(chǎn)力較低的國家失業(yè)率上升至危險(xiǎn)水平。在解決根源問題之前,，預(yù)計(jì)歐洲也只能應(yīng)付度日,，政府債務(wù)水平也將有增無減。

Europe will edge closer to crisis

While many Americans may think of the European debt crisis as something that occurred in the past, it's actually still ongoing. The unemployment rate for the euro area remains at 10.7%, with unemployment in Spain, the union's fifth-largest economy, over 21%. Though Europe is slowly growing and its unemployment rate slowly falling, the imbalances that created the crisis still remain.

The Euro binds together countries like Greece and Germany with vastly different productivity levels, giving Germany unfair advantages in export markets while keeping unemployment in less productive countries dangerously high. Until Europe deals with the fundamental cause of its troubles, expect the continent to muddle along, while government debt levels steadily rise.

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印度將成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)新星

國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì),，2016年印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將達(dá)到7.3%,，比中國官方的注水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)還高。2016年將是一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),，年輕得多,、技術(shù)水平欠發(fā)達(dá)的印度將超越其東部鄰邦中國，成為增速最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)大國,。

雖然印度經(jīng)濟(jì)不免與其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體一樣面臨各種阻力,，但人口優(yōu)勢(shì)還是很明顯的。未來10年中,，盡管中國在總?cè)丝跀?shù)上仍將穩(wěn)居世界第一,，但印度的勞動(dòng)力人數(shù)將超過中國。目前印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪正忙于為這個(gè)世界上最大的民主國家制定更為宜商的政策,，各種跡象表明,，明年將是印度崛起的一年。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

校對(duì)：夏林

India will become the new growth king

The IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% clip next year, faster than even the Chinese government's trumped-up numbers. 2016 will be a turning point, in which a much younger and less technologically advanced India surpasses its neighbor to the east to become the fastest growing large economy.

Though the Indian economy hasn't been spared from the headwinds that have slowed other emerging market economies, it does have demographics on its side. Over the next ten years, the Indian workforce will grow to be larger than the Chinese, even as China's overall population remains the world's biggest. Narendra Modi has his hands full guiding the world's largest democracy towards more business-friendly policies, but the signs point to an emergent India in the new year.