不管怎樣,，2016年對(duì)美國(guó)股市來說應(yīng)當(dāng)是很不錯(cuò)的一年。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息釋放看好美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信號(hào),，總統(tǒng)大選年也通常不會(huì)令投資者失望,。多數(shù)專家都預(yù)測(cè)當(dāng)前牛市將有望持續(xù)到第七年。在最近一項(xiàng)投票調(diào)查中,，參投策略師預(yù)測(cè)2016年底標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)可能達(dá)到2207點(diǎn),，較目前點(diǎn)位上漲8%左右。

然而,，這當(dāng)中可能有諸多變數(shù),。這些看多的策略師也列出了種種可能重創(chuàng)股市的因素——從美國(guó)大選可能導(dǎo)致時(shí)局不穩(wěn)，到遠(yuǎn)期經(jīng)濟(jì)可能崩潰等等,。

以下就來盤點(diǎn)一下種種擔(dān)憂,。對(duì)于那些更愿意保持樂觀的人來說，請(qǐng)記住那句老話——“華爾街正爬著憂慮之墻”,。（即使市場(chǎng)上充滿擔(dān)心,，但股票依然保持升勢(shì)——譯者注）

企業(yè)盈利可能停滯不前

在參與路透社投票調(diào)查的30位策略師中，大多數(shù)最擔(dān)心的都是企業(yè)盈利能力疲弱,。標(biāo)普500企業(yè)在2015年盈利為持平,，股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)偏高。目前股價(jià)是過去一年盈利的19.3倍,，高于15倍的平均值,。因此企業(yè)盈利下降，股價(jià)會(huì)更為昂貴,。

湯森路透分析師預(yù)計(jì),，2016年企業(yè)營(yíng)收漲幅可能為3.9%，也就是說,，如果成本上漲將使盈利連續(xù)第二年盈利持平,。

新澤西Nuveen Asset Management的首席股市策略師鮑勃?道爾說，“如果勞動(dòng)力成本開始漲一點(diǎn),，利息支出也上升的話……想保持利潤(rùn)上漲就很難了,。”

強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元可能沖擊經(jīng)濟(jì)

2015年美元指數(shù)兌一攬子貨幣上漲8.4%,，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息,，其他國(guó)家也延續(xù)寬松的貨幣政策，明年美元可能會(huì)繼續(xù)走強(qiáng),。

對(duì)那些有很多國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)的美國(guó)企業(yè)來說,，銷售的壓力會(huì)進(jìn)一步增大，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)勢(shì)美元意味著美國(guó)商品的海外價(jià)格也隨之上漲。

貨幣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)咨詢公司FireApps首席執(zhí)行官沃夫?qū)?科斯特爾表示,，“如果美元走勢(shì)和去年相似,，美國(guó)企業(yè)蒙受的損失可能高達(dá)280億美元?！彼A(yù)測(cè)美元走強(qiáng)將使有國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)的美國(guó)企業(yè)一季度每股獲利折損3至4美分,。

邊緣候選人或當(dāng)選

通常在大選年股市表現(xiàn)都不錯(cuò)，股票交易者年鑒的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，無論哪方當(dāng)選,，在1950年之后的16個(gè)總統(tǒng)選舉年里，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在其中13年里都出現(xiàn)上漲,。

然而隨著類似唐納德?特朗普和伯尼?桑德斯的另類候選人參選,，策略師懷疑2016年是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)小概率事件。

安聯(lián)全球投資者美國(guó)投資策略師克里斯蒂娜?霍伯說,，“候選人越是極端,，股市的接受程度就越差”，她認(rèn)為,，貫穿全年的大選活動(dòng)可能成為市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的因素之一,。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)或更激進(jìn)

12月16日美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)啟動(dòng)近十年來首次加息，并強(qiáng)烈暗示未來將緩步加息,，美股當(dāng)日大幅上揚(yáng),。

然而，如果央行在未見通脹加重或企業(yè)營(yíng)收回升的情況下進(jìn)一步加息,，則有可能打壓股市,。位于紐約貝德福德山的Solaris集團(tuán)首席投資官提姆?格里斯科說，“加息的擔(dān)憂將縈繞不去,?！?/p>

此外隨著利率上升，相較于債券等其他資產(chǎn)類別,，股票可能缺乏吸引力,。

大宗商品價(jià)格或下跌

國(guó)際油價(jià)的持續(xù)下跌已經(jīng)讓能源公司以及為其提供貸款的銀行和投資人備受打擊，也令一些投資者惶惶不安,。

富國(guó)銀行基金管理公司首席股票策略師約翰?曼力說,，“大宗商品價(jià)格的持續(xù)下跌可能會(huì)超出預(yù)期，變得難以控制”,。

美國(guó)原油價(jià)格目前為37美元/桶左右,，比2014年6月份時(shí)已下跌逾65%。如果油價(jià)和其他大宗商品價(jià)格還不能企穩(wěn),，那么盈利跌勢(shì)會(huì)擴(kuò)散至金融公司,、供應(yīng)商等,，并導(dǎo)致通縮蔓延的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

消費(fèi)者或抑制支出

雖然目前汽油價(jià)格已經(jīng)低于2美元/桶,，但并沒有刺激消費(fèi)者大肆購(gòu)物，加息可能令他們更傾向于節(jié)省開銷,。

芝加哥蒙特利爾私人銀行BMO Private Bank的高級(jí)投資策略師杰夫?韋尼格爾表示,，目前標(biāo)普500的市銷率已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下歷史新高。若沒有銷售收入帶動(dòng),，經(jīng)濟(jì)拉動(dòng)利潤(rùn)進(jìn)而促進(jìn)股市上漲的結(jié)構(gòu)將出問題,。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸；其他國(guó)家亦表現(xiàn)平平

安聯(lián)的霍伯說“中國(guó)是一只800磅重的大猩猩,?！保ㄗⅲ河髦袊?guó)影響力重大）

8月份中國(guó)股市下挫，而美股亦應(yīng)聲暴跌,。鑒于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍然疲弱,，投資者擔(dān)心可能會(huì)影響大宗商品需求、貨幣均衡等,。此外,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不振也可能波及全球，沖擊新興市場(chǎng)和美國(guó)等,。

或發(fā)生負(fù)面大事件

參與投票的策略師當(dāng)中至少有九位都把恐怖主義或中東局勢(shì)動(dòng)蕩列為2016年影響股市的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一,。

聯(lián)合投資公司首席股票投資官史蒂夫?奧特說“明顯的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是發(fā)生某種地緣政治事件，導(dǎo)致旅行和貿(mào)易禁令,。這種情況是有可能發(fā)生的,。”而且,，一旦發(fā)生恐怖主義性質(zhì)的公共事件,，消費(fèi)者可能無法外出。

盡管油價(jià)的自由落體式下跌對(duì)股市不利,，反之亦然,。中東若發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性危機(jī)則很容易造成油價(jià)飆升，但消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的成本也會(huì)提高,。

覺得這些還不夠打擊信心,？富國(guó)的曼力說，他擔(dān)心“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)已失去了發(fā)展的勃勃生氣”,。

他說,，“我最擔(dān)心的是，六年前我們并沒有真正解決問題,，只是將其推遲了,。我們這艘船之所以沉沒并不是因?yàn)楹Ｋ蝗挥咳?，而是?xì)小裂隙日積月累地漏水。我沒說一定會(huì)發(fā)生,，但真的很擔(dān)心一語成讖,。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

校對(duì)：夏林

By all rights, 2016 should be a good year for the U.S. stock market.

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike signals confidence in the economy and presidential election years typically reward investors. Most experts are predicting a seventh year for the current bull market, with strategists in a recent poll expecting the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index to end 2016 at about 2,207, roughly 8 percent higher than it is now.

But a lot could go wrong. The same strategists have cataloged a long list of worries – everything from a destabilizing U.S. election to a meltdown far away – that could hit stocks hard.

Here is their laundry list of concerns. For those who’d rather stay optimistic, remember the old chestnut: Wall Street climbs a wall of worry.

COMPANIES MIGHT STOP EARNING PROFITS

Most of the 30 strategists polled by Reuters cited weak earnings as their prominent concern. With S&P earnings growth projected to be flat in 2015, stocks already are pricey. The market is trading at roughly 19.3 times trailing earnings, well above its 15 average. Any stumble in earnings would make stocks even pricier.

Thomson Reuters analysts now expect revenue to grow 3.9 percent in 2016, meaning any increases in costs could keep earnings flat for a second year in a row.

“If labor costs start moving up a bit and interest expense is moving up … it’s going to be hard to keep margins up,” said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management in Princeton, New Jersey.

STRONG DOLLAR COULD KEEP INFLICTING PAIN

The dollar, up 8.4 percent against a basket of currencies in 2015, is expected to see further gains next year as the United States hikes rates while other countries continue easy money policies.

That could further pressure sales of U.S. companies with heavy international exposure because it makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas.

“If we have a similar movement to last year, then we’re going to have roughly a $28-billion hit to corporate America,” said Wolfgang Koester, chief executive of currency risk consulting firm FireApps. He said he expects the dollar to shave 3 to 4 cents from first-quarter earnings of U.S. companies with foreign exposure.

THE PUBLIC COULD ELECT A FRINGE CANDIDATE

Stocks historically do well in a presidential election year, with the S&P gaining in 13 of the 16 presidential election years since 1950, regardless of which party won, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

But strategists wonder if 2016 might be one of the exceptions to the trend, with outliers like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders running this year.

“The more extreme the candidate, the less well-received the candidate typically is by the stock market,” said Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. She said she expected election activity throughout the year to contribute to market volatility.

THE FED COULD GET AGGRESSIVE

The stock market rallied on Dec. 16 when the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike along with strong hints that it would move slowly on future increases.

But if the central bank continues to raise rates without seeing higher inflation or an earnings pick-up, that could dent stocks. “Rate hikes should be a consistent worry,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

As rates rise, stocks could become less attractive compared with other asset classes like bonds.

COMMODITIES COULD FALL

The continuing decline in oil prices, which has hurt energy companies and the banks and investors that lend to them, has some investors spooked.

“The commodity picture could get out of control to the downside,” said John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management.

U.S. crude is now about $37 a barrel, down more than 65 percent since June 2014. Should the prices of oil and other commodities fail to firm, the risk is of spreading deflation, as declining earnings in those sectors spread to financial firms, suppliers and more, said Manley.

THE CONSUMER COULD BAIL

Even with gasoline under $2 a gallon, consumers have resisted spending sprees and higher interest rates may entice them to tilt even more towards saving.

The price-to-sales ratio of the S&P has already topped previous peaks, says Jeff Weniger, senior portfolio strategist at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. Without sales, the whole growing economy-growing-earnings-improving-stock-prices structure could go south.

CHINA LANDS HARD; OTHER COUNTRIES DON’T DO MUCH BETTER

“China is the 800-pound gorilla,” said Allianz’s Hooper.

In August, Chinese stocks fell and the U.S. market swooned in response. With the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy still weak, investors worry that it could hurt demand for commodities, currency balances and more. Furthermore, weakness in China could ripple across the globe, hitting emerging markets and the United States as well.

SOMETHING BIG AND TERRIBLE COULD HAPPEN

At least nine of the strategists polled listed terrorism or Middle East instability among their biggest concerns for the stock market in 2016.

“The obvious risk is some sort of geopolitical event that freezes up travel and trade. It could happen,” said Steve Auth, chief investment officer for equities at Federated Investors. Consumers, too, could be kept at home by any public events perceived as terrorist in nature.

While free-falling oil has proven bad for stocks, the reverse would not necessarily help. A systemic crisis in the Middle East could easily spike oil prices, raising costs for consumers and businesses.

Not dark enough? Manley of Wells Fargo says he worries about “the risk that the vital spirit has gone out of the world’s economy.”

He said, “The deepest darkest fear I have is that we didn’t really fix it six years ago, we just delayed it for a while. And rather than being sunk by a gash we are being sunk by a slow leak. It’s not what I think, but it is what I worry about.”