????全球石油供給過剩,，國際油價(jià)延續(xù)著一年來的大幅滑坡勢(shì)頭,。有分析師預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將進(jìn)一步下跌,，之后才能好轉(zhuǎn),。

????上周,， 美國油價(jià)向著每桶40美元的水平滑落，創(chuàng)六年新低,，和去年夏天的高點(diǎn)相比已下挫近60%,。《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道,，花旗集團(tuán)分析師認(rèn)為,，油價(jià)迅速逼近每桶30美元的“可能性為90%”。

????油價(jià)可能繼續(xù)下行的原因有幾個(gè),，包括燃油需求通常較高的美國夏季駕車出行高峰已經(jīng)過去,，市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力感到擔(dān)心，以及產(chǎn)油國繼續(xù)提高石油產(chǎn)量,。上周公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，美國商品原油供給量仍接近幾十年來的最高點(diǎn)，原因是美國頁巖油行業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展使產(chǎn)油量達(dá)到歷史最高水平,。同時(shí),，沒有任何跡象表明以石油輸出國組織（OPEC）為首的中東國家開始下調(diào)目標(biāo)產(chǎn)量，以便全球石油供應(yīng)更貼近需求,。

????盡管今年早些時(shí)候油價(jià)曾短暫反彈,，并且一度升至每桶60美元以上，但去年油價(jià)觸及近100美元的高點(diǎn)后,，市場(chǎng)對(duì)供給過剩的擔(dān)憂基本上讓石油價(jià)格一直處于直線下滑狀態(tài),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????Crude oil prices are continuing their yearlong plunge amid the global oil supply glut and some analysts think the commodity’s decline will only get worse before it gets better.

????The price of U.S. oil has fell to nearly $40 per barrel this week — its lowest point in six years and nearly a 60% decline from last summer’s highs — and The Wall Street Journal reports that analysts at Citigroup think there is “a 90% likelihood” that the price will drop closer to $30 a barrel very soon.

????Several factors are contributing to the likely continued price drop, including the end of the summer season, when demand for oil is generally at a high point, as well as market concerns over the sluggish Chinese economy and the fact that oil-producing countries continue to stockpile their supplies. Oil inventory data released this week showed U.S. commercial crude supplies remain near their highest levels in several decades, as the U.S. shale boom continues to drive record production. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern countries, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have shown no signs of cutting their production targets to bring global supply more in line with demand.

????While a short-lived oil rally took prices above $60 per barrel earlier this year, the industry’s supply concerns have mostly kept prices in a free-fall after touching highs near $100 per barrel of crude oil last year.