????經(jīng)歷了中國政府反鋪張浪費的沖擊和中國經(jīng)濟增長放緩的持續(xù)影響,，競逐中國這個全球第二大奢侈品市場的西方品牌又面臨新的增長阻力：中國央行本周二（8月11日）意外將人民幣匯率中間價下調2%,，單日降幅創(chuàng)十年新高。

????從普拉達,、寶馬,、Coach到蒂凡尼，對各類高端品牌而言,，中國近些年都是其重要的盈利增長源,，削弱了歐洲、美國這類成熟市場增長放緩帶來的影響,。其中美國市場放緩的幅度較小，仍是全球頭號奢侈品市場,。（兩年前中國超越日本,，坐上全球奢侈品市場的第二把交椅。）

????人民幣貶值意味著,，中國消費者在購買國外商品時要花更多的人民幣,。而更讓國際品牌擔憂的是，它也可能抑制中國民眾赴日本,、法國或美國境外旅游的熱情,。中國游客喜歡在海外購買鱷魚皮包、金表等各類奢侈品,。摩根士丹利新近的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),，中國消費者一半以上的奢侈品購買行為都發(fā)生在大中華區(qū)以外地區(qū)。去年,，中國游客海外游的消費額達到創(chuàng)紀錄的5000億美元,。

????歐洲股市已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)出了上述擔憂，意大利頂級奢侈品牌Salvatore Ferragamo和Tod’s,、法國奢侈品集團LVMH,、卡地亞的母公司開云集團等一批奢侈品企業(yè)的股價劇跌。在美國,，Coach和蒂凡尼這類奢侈品公司股價同樣回落,，盡管跌幅較輕微,。

????中國經(jīng)濟下行對奢侈品行業(yè)的負面影響已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一段時間：全球管理咨詢公司貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年,，中國內(nèi)地奢侈品市場規(guī)模降至人民幣1150億元（約合180億美元）,，實際上較2013年萎縮了1%。這部分源于中國政府抵制企業(yè)贈送高價手表和香檳的行動,，政府將這些贈禮視為賄賂,。今年5月，貝恩預計,，今年中國的奢侈品市場規(guī)模將收縮4%,，消費者會對價格越來越敏感。這還是在人民幣此次貶值以前的預測,。

????對于Coach這樣的公司來說,，中國市場疲弱是個大問題。它在美國的業(yè)務正經(jīng)歷大滑坡,，2014財年銷售額銳減了20%,。該公司預計，2015財年,，中國市場的年銷售額將增至6億美元,，約占財年總銷售額的14%。因此,，如果延續(xù)上季度在中國市場的疲態(tài),，可比銷售額（去除新開或者關閉門店影響后）繼續(xù)下滑，對Coach來說恐怕難以承受,。

????考慮到中國消費者更熱衷于海外購物的行為偏好,，人民幣貶值將給奢侈品牌帶來雙重打擊。（上周Coach表示,，日本市場之所以銷售大旺,，很大程度上要歸功于當?shù)赜咳氪罅恐袊慰汀＃?/p>

????當前的人民幣貶值會對中國人的奢侈品消費產(chǎn)生多大影響,，還有待觀察,。但有一件事可以讓西方奢侈品牌略感安慰：中國的高凈值人群正在迅速增長。同樣來自貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，去年,，資產(chǎn)凈值達到人民幣1000萬元（約合160萬美元）以上的中國公民增至100萬人，人數(shù)是四年前的兩倍,。這部分中國“1%”人群消減開銷的可能性較小,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Pessy

????校對：詹妮

????Already reeling from a Chinese government crackdown on conspicuous spending and a slowing economy there, Western brands face a new obstacle to growth in the second largest luxury market in the world to contend with: a surprise 2% devaluation of China’s yuan on Tuesday, its biggest one-day move in a decade.

????For high-end brands from Prada and BMW to Coach COH -1.30% and Tiffany & Co TIF -2.10% , China has in recent years been a key source of growth, helping them mitigate slowing growth in mature markets like Europe and to a lesser extent the United States, still the largest luxury market. (China surpassed Japan as the #2 luxe market two years ago.)

????The devaluation means that foreign goods become pricier for Chinese consumers in their own currency, but more worryingly, it is also likely to curb Chinese tourism to places like Japan, France and the United States, where many prefer to buy their alligator-skin handbags or gold watches anyway. A recent Morgan Stanley study found that more than half of sales made to China’s luxury consumers happen outside of greater China. Last year, Chinese tourists spent a record $500 billion on overseas vacations.

????In Europe, shares of a slew of companies, including Salvatore Ferragamo, Tod’s, LVMH and Cartier parent Kering reflected those worries, falling sharply, while U.S. companies Coach and Tiffany were down too, though only slightly.

????The slowdown in China’s economy has been weighing on the luxury sector for some time: in 2014, the high-end goods market actually shrank 1% to 115 billion Renminbi ($18 billion), according to Bain & Co. Some of that also stemmed from a crackdown on corporate gift-giving of super pricey watches and champagne deemed to be bribery by Chinese government. In May, Bain said that it expected China’s luxury market to contract by as much as 4% this year, with shoppers growing more price sensitive. And that was before the latest news.

????For a company like Coach, a weak China is a big problem. With its U.S. business collapsing (20% drop last fiscal year), the leather-goods maker has seen its China sales grow to $600 million a year, or 14% of sales for fiscal 2015. So it can ill afford to see comparable sales (which strip out the impact of new or closed stores) continue to fall, as they did in China last quarter.

????It is also a double whammy because of how Chinese consumers often spend more on vacation abroad. (Coach said last week that an uptick in Japan sales had a lot to do with an influx of visitors there.)

????While it remains to be seen how much of a dent the current movement will have on luxury spending by the Chinese, luxe brands can take solace in one thing: the ranks of China’s high net worth individuals is swelling. According to Bain, the number of Chinese with a net worth of at least 10 million renminbi ($1.6 million) hit 1 million last year, double what it was just four years ago. And China’s 1% is much less likely to cut back on spending.