????巴克萊銀行的一份分析報(bào)告稱(chēng)，如果自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)在美國(guó)社會(huì)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,，美國(guó)的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量可能會(huì)猛跌40%,，汽車(chē)擁有量也會(huì)下降50%，這將迫使福特和通用這類(lèi)汽車(chē)巨頭主動(dòng)適應(yīng)或是被動(dòng)消亡,。

????不過(guò)這一巨變也會(huì)為科技創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)和租車(chē)公司創(chuàng)造了一些機(jī)遇,。

????這份名為《顛覆移動(dòng)性》，由巴克萊銀行分析師布萊恩?約翰遜執(zhí)筆的報(bào)告所構(gòu)想的是,，25年后,，如果其它因素保持不變，而絕大部分量產(chǎn)汽車(chē)都是自動(dòng)駕駛的,，社會(huì)將會(huì)如何運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),。

????顯然，這份報(bào)告更多是一種思想實(shí)驗(yàn)——它需要我們做出大量假設(shè),。不過(guò)這種預(yù)測(cè)仍然向我們生動(dòng)地展示出顛覆性的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)可能對(duì)汽車(chē)業(yè)和交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)帶來(lái)何種沖擊,。鑒于谷歌公司計(jì)劃于2020年正式推出自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)，這種充滿未來(lái)感的場(chǎng)景其實(shí)距我們也并不遙遠(yuǎn),。

????那么,，未來(lái)這種情景中誰(shuí)是贏家，誰(shuí)又會(huì)是輸家呢,？ Uber會(huì)拋棄司機(jī),，變成一家車(chē)隊(duì)管理公司嗎？特斯拉公司打入大眾市場(chǎng)的策略會(huì)威脅其生存嗎,？

????不過(guò)約翰遜預(yù)計(jì),，就算無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)一統(tǒng)天下，需要司機(jī)駕駛的汽車(chē)仍會(huì)存在,。也就是那些性能出眾,、或有特定用途的汽車(chē)和輕卡仍將幸存——擁有一輛邁凱倫650S Spider卻不能開(kāi)有什么意義呢？

????這份報(bào)告估計(jì),，美國(guó)有超過(guò)50%的汽車(chē)是用于上下班和接送孩子的。就是在這種純用于通勤的領(lǐng)域,，約翰遜認(rèn)為共享型自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)將顛覆汽車(chē)業(yè)。

????共享型自動(dòng)駕駛（SAV）,，就像沒(méi)有司機(jī)的Uber——這就是一隊(duì)自動(dòng)駕駛的出租車(chē),，乘客只需要點(diǎn)擊應(yīng)用就能召車(chē)。照此類(lèi)推,，拼上一輛共享型自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē),，在不同地點(diǎn)接上不同乘客這種模式也會(huì)涌現(xiàn)。

????在舊金山這類(lèi)人口稠密的城區(qū),，無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的到來(lái)將會(huì)對(duì)傳統(tǒng)出租車(chē)公司,、Uber和Lyft這類(lèi)召車(chē)應(yīng)用造成沖擊,，影響程度取決于這類(lèi)技術(shù)導(dǎo)向的創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)將如何應(yīng)對(duì)。實(shí)際上,，優(yōu)步和Lyft在很多方面都已為這一轉(zhuǎn)變做好了準(zhǔn)備,。這兩家公司早已用技術(shù)手段將司機(jī)和乘客聯(lián)接起來(lái)，而且它們都在提供拼車(chē)或汽車(chē)共享服務(wù),。

????但在城市遠(yuǎn)郊和德克薩斯州奧斯汀這樣的城市,，由于它由一個(gè)緊湊的中心城區(qū)和環(huán)繞的市郊地區(qū)組成，SAV的興起可能會(huì)帶來(lái)更大的沖擊,。德克薩斯大學(xué)的研究人員建立了一個(gè)基于奧斯汀市實(shí)際交通狀況的仿真建模,。通過(guò)運(yùn)行這一建模，他們發(fā)現(xiàn),，每輛SAV可替代9輛傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē),。與此同時(shí)，每輛SAV可行駛63,335英里,，約為一般家用車(chē)年行駛里程的5倍,。

????贏家和輸家

????對(duì)消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)，作為一項(xiàng)交通服務(wù),，SAV的經(jīng)濟(jì)性會(huì)讓他們嘗到甜頭,。這份報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，SAV每英里的成本只有0.34美元,，這幾乎要比傳統(tǒng)新車(chē)使用成本便宜近58%,。而如果拼SAV，假設(shè)每趟只有兩名乘客,，那這一成本將降至每英里只有0.16美元,。

????但對(duì)生產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)車(chē)的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，一個(gè)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)的社會(huì)將會(huì)更具挑戰(zhàn)性,。這份報(bào)告寫(xiě)道：

????“正像馬要么成為真正的馱獸（如在牧場(chǎng)上）,，要么成為富人的玩物，比如漢普頓經(jīng)典名馬展,，我們認(rèn)為一個(gè)規(guī)模較小的汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)也會(huì)如此,，個(gè)人擁有的車(chē)要么有特定工作用途，要么就是為了彰顯身份或追求性能,。而對(duì)多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō),，共享型自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)將取代個(gè)人擁有的車(chē)輛，就像T型車(chē)取代了馬一樣,?！?/p>

????In a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die, according to a Barclays analyst report.

????This shift will also create opportunities for tech startups and rental car companies.

????The research report, “Disruptive Mobility” by Barclays plc analyst Brian A. Johnson, imagines how society would operate 25 years from now if everything stayed the same except that the majority of vehicles produced were fully autonomous.

????Obviously, the report is more of a thought experiment—and one that requires us to make a number of assumptions. Still, the forecast illustrates how disruptive self-driving cars could be to the automotive and transportation industries. And with Google’s plan to introduce self-driving cars by 2020, this futuristic scenario doesn’t isn’t seem so far off.

????So who wins and loses in this futuristic scenario? Does Uber ditch its drivers and become a fleet management company? Will Tesla’s entry into mass-market cars threaten its existence?

????Even when driverless cars monopolize the landscape, Johnson predicts driver-required cars will still exist. These will be cars and light trucks owned for specific work purposes or for their performance—what’s the point of owning a McClaren 65OS Spider if you can’t drive it?

????The Barclays report estimates a little more than 50% of cars in the U.S. are used for getting to and from work, and dropping the kids off at school. It’s in this purely commuter-daily routes space, where Johnson sees shared autonomous driving upending the auto industry.

????Shared autonomous driving, or SAVs, would be like Uber without the driver—a fleet of robotic taxis capable of picking up a passenger who has summoned the ride with the touch of an app. Taking it a step further, pooled SAVs that pick up multiple riders at different points would also emerge.

????The advent of driverless cars in dense urban areas like San Francisco would impact traditional taxi companies and taxi apps like Uber and Lyft, depending on how these tech-focused startups adjust. Uber and Lyft are, in many ways, prepared for this transition. The companies already use technology to connect drivers with riders and they both operate carpooling, or shared riding, services.

????But in exurban areas and cities like Austin, Texas, which have a compact urban core and surrounding sprawl, the rise of shared autonomous vehicles could have an even bigger impact. Researchers at the University of Texas, who ran simulation models based on actual trips in Austin, found that every SAV on the road could displace nine traditional cars, according to the report. At the same time, each SAV would travel 63,335 miles, about five times the annual mileage of a traditional family car, the report says.

????Winners and Losers

????For consumers, the economics of SAVs, or transportation as a service, is a win. Barclays estimates the cost per mile for SAVs will be $0.34 a mile, nearly 58% cheaper than traditional new cars. Pooled SAVs, assuming two riders per trip, would push those costs down even more to $0.16 per mile.

????For companies that make mass market cars, a driverless society would be far more challenging. From the Barclays report:

????Just as horses have become either true beasts of burden (e.g. on a cattle ranch) or a rich person’s play-thing—we think of the Hampton Classic Horse Shows—we see a smaller auto market, with individually owned vehicles either for work purposes or for status/performance. For the rest, shared autonomous vehicles will replace individually owned cars, just as the Model T replaced the horse.