????麥當勞公司創(chuàng)始人雷?克拉克曾經(jīng)說過：“如果你不敢冒險,，就不要去開公司,。”鑒于這家連鎖餐廳已經(jīng)深陷困境，聽從其傳奇創(chuàng)始人的建議,，從來沒有像今天這么重要,。在新任首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫?伊斯特布魯克的領(lǐng)導下，麥當勞預計將在今年夏天之前公布解困方案,。

????分析師們一直在討論各種可能,。盡管接下來會發(fā)生什么還有待觀察，但對于華爾街目前流行的部分觀點,，我實在不敢茍同,，以下是我的看法。

????減少銷售咖啡類飲料

????麥當勞的第一要務是重啟全球七大關(guān)鍵市場的銷售勢頭,，讓同店銷售額回到正增長，以最大程度地創(chuàng)造股東價值,。對于麥當勞的補救計劃,，我們將拭目以待，不過麥當勞必須把握“以收縮換增長”這條準則,，換句話說,，這家連鎖餐廳需要努力減少菜單的產(chǎn)品數(shù)目。

????在美國,，這可能意味著改掉一個我認為該公司在歷史上犯下的最昂貴的錯誤：咖啡類飲料,。麥當勞的每家連鎖店都花費了大約10萬美元來提供McCafe產(chǎn)品，而它們的銷售額卻遠低于目標?，F(xiàn)在到了麥當勞專注于做回自己的時候了,，不要再去扮演其他公司，比如星巴克,。

????不要涉足房地產(chǎn)

????華爾街似乎沉迷于一個概念,，即公司可以通過舉債經(jīng)營或建立房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金（按照美國法律，這類基金應當向股東分派至少90%的應稅收入作為分紅）來提高股東的權(quán)益,。盡管這聽起來十分誘人,，但卻不太可能實現(xiàn)。在利潤空間壓縮的情況下仍然舉債經(jīng)營,，會給利潤率帶來不必要的負擔,，產(chǎn)生不必要的金融風險?！胞湲攧凇笨刹粦摮蔀椤胞湹禺a(chǎn)”,。

????削減行政開支

????麥當勞可以借機削減一般費用及行政開支。這將會是新任首席執(zhí)行官面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn),。伊斯特布魯克需要在低效率和冗余運作的領(lǐng)域進行大膽改革,，這點十分關(guān)鍵。盡管有些削減會影響到盈虧底線，但麥當勞需要更好地進行資源配置（人力資本和財政資源）,，重新進行商業(yè)投資,，讓公司重獲生機。

????解決加盟商關(guān)切的問題

????新任首席執(zhí)行官必須讓公司重新與加盟商/經(jīng)營者建立聯(lián)系,。

????自1940年麥當勞成立至今,，廣告業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了巨大的變化。有鑒于此,，新任首席執(zhí)行官面臨的關(guān)鍵問題是如何讓加盟商合作社,，即全國加盟商聯(lián)合廣告基金會(OPNAD)更加高效。為了在全國的電視節(jié)目上播出廣告,，麥當勞和加盟商會把營銷資金整合到一起,。考慮到OPNAD成立于1967年,，現(xiàn)在的問題是,，公司是否應當調(diào)整購買媒體廣告的比例？

????多年來,，每家店面都會把銷售額的1%付給OPNAD,，再付2%至3%給本地的廣告播出方。該費用在20世紀90年代初降至了2%,，如今大約是1.6%,。隨著營銷手段越來越具有地區(qū)性，這一費用還需要進一步降低,。加盟商正在討論把一部分資金挪回本地進行營銷,。

????重視移動端訂單

????盡管餐飲業(yè)一直在努力采用移動端下單，麥當勞卻并未緊隨潮流,。這凸顯了公司在創(chuàng)新上的遲滯性,。

????這確實是該公司，尤其是公司董事會的失敗,。麥當勞最近表示,，在接下來的幾個月中，一款全球通用的應用將會上線,，不過發(fā)布日期和具體的功能將由麥當勞在各國的管理層決定,。在美國，這款應用很可能將于今年夏天面世,。

????我們希望麥當勞能在未來過得更好,，并期待著看到全新面貌的“金拱門”。不過在那之前,，公司仍將在掙扎中探索出路,，股價也將停滯不前,。

????霍華德?彭尼是投資研究公司Hedgeye Risk Management常務董事兼餐飲業(yè)研究部門總監(jiān)。他并不持有麥當勞的股份,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????審校：任文科

????McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc once said: “If you’re not a risk taker, you should get the hell out of business.” As the restaurant chain struggles, there has never been a time in the history of the company where following the advice of its legendary founder has been more critical than it is today. Under the direction of new CEO Steve Easterbrook, McDonald’s MCD -1.23% is expected sometime between now and the beginning of summer to unveil plans to turn the company around.

????Analysts have been talking about several scenarios. And while it remains to be seen what could happen, the following are my thoughts on a few ideas floating around Wall Street.

????Scale back the sale of espresso-based beverages

????The number one priority is to reset the sales trends in seven key global markets. Returning these markets to positive same-store sales growth will result in the greatest creation of shareholder value. We will wait and see what the company plans to do, but the overarching theme is that McDonald’s must focus on the mantra, “shrink to grow.” In other words, the chain must make a concerted effort to shrink its menu.

????In the U.S., this will likely call for the elimination of what I consider the most expensive mistake in the history of the company: espresso-based beverages. It costs franchisees about $100,000 per store to implement the McCafe models and the sales of espresso-based beverages are running well below the intended sales targets. It’s time for McDonald’s to focus on being itself, instead of pretending to be something it is not (i.e. Starbucks.)

????Don’t get into the real estate business

????Wall Street seems obsessed with the notion that the company will enhance shareholder value by leveraging its balance sheet or forming a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), which by law must pay out at least 90% of taxable earnings to shareholders as dividends. As advantageous as this sounds, it’s unlikely to happen. Taking on additional leverage while margins are declining will put unnecessary pressure on profitability and will perpetuate unnecessary financial risk. There should never be a McREIT!

????Cut administrative costs

????There is an opportunity for McDonald’s to cut its general & administrative expenses. This will be the biggest challenge for the new CEO. It will be critical for Easterbrook to make bold changes in inefficient and unnecessary operational areas. While some of the cuts will fall to the bottom line, the company must better maximize its resource allocation (human capital and financial resources) and re-invest in the business to bring the company back to life.

????Address franchise concerns

????The new CEO must reestablish the company’s connection with its owners/operators.

????Given how much the business of advertising has changed since McDonald’s was founded in 1940, the critical issue facing the new CEO is how to make its voluntary cooperative of owners/operators, known as OPNAD (Operators National Advertising Fund), more effective. McDonald’s and the owner/operators combine their marketing dollars to fund national television advertising. Given that OPNAD was formed in 1967, the question is should the company restructure how it purchases media?

????For many years, every store paid 1% of sales into OPNAD plus another 2% to 3% locally. This fee fell to 2% in the early 1990’s and to around 1.6% today. With a more regional approach to marketing, that probably needs to come down further, and the franchisees are talking about bringing some money home to spend locally.

??? Ramp up mobile ordering

????While the broader restaurant industry has been working hard to adopt mobile ordering, McDonald’s has been slower to catch on.This illustrate just how behind the company is in terms of innovation.

????This is a real black eye for the company and especially the Board of Directors. The company recently said a global app should be ready to launch in the next few months, though the launch date and exact functionality of the application will be up to McDonald’s management in each country. The app will likely roll out in the U.S. sometime this summer.

????We hope there are better days ahead for McDonald’s and look forward to seeing what the new Golden Arches will look like. But until then, the company is still struggling to find its way and the stock will tread water.

????Howard Penney is a managing director at Hedgeye Risk Management, a Connecticut-based research investment firm. He heads the firm’s research over the restaurant industry. Penney does not own shares of McDonald’s.