????因此,，考慮到前期對大學(xué)學(xué)位的巨額投資，如果不就讀大學(xué),，更多人的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況或許會更好,。但是筆者在此提出幾點(diǎn)注意事項(xiàng)。首先,，我們無法給出如果不就讀大學(xué),，底層四分之一的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生確切的工資數(shù)額。此外,，這個問題可以歸結(jié)為職業(yè)選擇：許多工作有學(xué)歷要求,，但是提供的薪酬并不豐厚。如果有人出于賺錢以外的其他原因攻讀學(xué)位,，那么前期投資仍然是值得的,。

????盡管如此，以上圖表成為公私部門需要做出重大調(diào)整,，從而更有效地提供高等教育的有力證據(jù),。遺憾的是，對數(shù)百萬美國家長來說,，當(dāng)他們需要決定如何讓孩子就讀大學(xué),，以及選擇哪所大學(xué)就讀時，這條信息的參考作用極為有限,。

????行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中有一條固定原則,，即人們經(jīng)常高估自身的能力，而且我們可以從成倍增加的大學(xué)費(fèi)用中看出這一點(diǎn),。高達(dá)25%的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生不讀大學(xué)也有可能改善自身經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,，但事實(shí)上，所有人都認(rèn)為大學(xué)投資能夠帶來更高回報(bào),。

????此外,，在做出就讀大學(xué)的決定之前，學(xué)生們通常并不清楚他們在大學(xué)中會有什么樣的進(jìn)展,，他們會攻讀哪種學(xué)位或從事哪種職業(yè),。這使情況變得更加復(fù)雜。

????有人指出,，所有這些不確定性成為我們加大投資,，以獲得公眾對高等教育支持的證據(jù)。有大量證據(jù)表明,，自學(xué)學(xué)生產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所謂的“溢出效應(yīng)”,，而且高等教育使整個社會受益。因此，使用納稅資金為高等教育買單是合理的,。由于學(xué)生事先不清楚自己將從哪種學(xué)位受益,，學(xué)生可能完全放棄學(xué)業(yè)，使整個社會受損,。有證據(jù)表明,，這種情況正在發(fā)生。

????與此同時,，給不確定學(xué)習(xí)或從事哪個行業(yè)的學(xué)生的最佳建議,，是在選擇大學(xué)時應(yīng)該有成本意識，在開始攻讀學(xué)位和確信如何運(yùn)用學(xué)位之前,，不要害怕等待,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????翻譯：喬樹靜/汪皓

?????So, it’s quite likely that, given the huge upfront investment for a college degree, many more workers today would have been better off not going to college at all. There are a few caveats that should be mentioned, however. First, we don’t know for sure how much money this bottom quarter of degree-holding earners would have made without their college education. Furthermore, much of this could boil down to career choice: there are many jobs that require a degree but don’t pay very well. If someone earns a degree for reasons beyond making more money, it could be that the upfront investment is worthwhile regardless.

????That being said, the above graph is certainly evidence that both the public and private sector need to make serious changes to provide higher education more efficiently. Unfortunately, this bit of information isn’t really helpful for the millions of Americans who need to decide how and where to send their kids to college.

????There is a well-established principle in behavioral economics that people systematically overestimate their abilities in general, and we can see this in the exponential increase in college costs. Up to 25% of college grads would probably be better off not pursuing a degree, yet nobody actually thinks they’re going to be the ones for whom the investment doesn’t pay off.?

????Further compounding the problem is the fact that students usually don’t have a great idea of how they are going to fare in college, or what sort of degree or career they will pursue until after they’ve already made the decision to attend.

????One could argue that all this uncertainty is evidence that we should be investing more in public support of higher education. There’s plenty of evidence that there are what economists call “spillover effects” from students educating themselves, that society as a whole benefits from higher education. So there is justification for paying for higher education with tax dollars. And since students don’t know ahead of time what degree they will personally benefit from, it’s possible that students will just begin to forego college altogether, hurting society in general. There’s evidence that this is beginning to happen.

????In the meantime, students who are unsure of what they want to study or do are probably best advised to be very cost-conscious when choosing a college, and to be unafraid to wait until they are sure how they will use their degree before they start to pursue one.