????在越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間,，法國(guó)航空公司每天都有從巴黎直飛河內(nèi)的航班。這一點(diǎn)北越知道,，南越知道,，美國(guó)也知道。但該航班從未遭遇攻擊,。

????但馬航MH17航班被導(dǎo)彈擊落這起事故將帶來(lái)重大改變,，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)方面，此類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因此次事故而大幅提高,。承保戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)險(xiǎn)的保險(xiǎn)公司從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始將更改其免責(zé)條款,，將更廣泛的地區(qū)定義為戰(zhàn)區(qū)。這樣做也是提請(qǐng)航空公司注意（無(wú)論有沒(méi)有政府的命令）,，飛機(jī)飛越該區(qū)域即違反該保單的條款,。而任何一家航空公司都不會(huì)以失去保險(xiǎn)覆蓋為代價(jià)而以身試險(xiǎn)。

????同時(shí),，在墜機(jī)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)取回的黑匣子（駕駛艙語(yǔ)音記錄器和飛行數(shù)據(jù)記錄器）可能只具有象征意義,，在確定墜毀細(xì)節(jié)方面并不會(huì)起到真正的建設(shè)性作用。目前,，假設(shè)黑匣子完好無(wú)損,，沒(méi)有被動(dòng)過(guò)手腳且交由適當(dāng)?shù)目针y調(diào)查實(shí)驗(yàn)室處理,，則黑匣子能提供的也只有飛機(jī)被導(dǎo)彈擊中以及失去電力的確切時(shí)間。

????對(duì)調(diào)查人員而言,，機(jī)身現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查是至關(guān)重要的,。他們要檢查金屬是否有確切的波紋痕跡（波紋痕跡意味著化學(xué)品爆炸，如塞姆汀炸藥,，當(dāng)年調(diào)查人員在泛美103航班的機(jī)身內(nèi)部很快就發(fā)現(xiàn)了這種炸藥）以及金屬機(jī)身的形狀,。向外扭曲說(shuō)明是飛機(jī)內(nèi)部爆炸，而向內(nèi)扭曲并帶有燃燒痕跡則表明是飛機(jī)外部爆炸,。在未來(lái)的96小時(shí)內(nèi),，如果調(diào)查人員能夠自由進(jìn)入事發(fā)地點(diǎn)，那么他們應(yīng)該能夠確立一個(gè)時(shí)間表,，并獲得相關(guān)的法醫(yī)線索,，而后者可能會(huì)給出他們所需的化學(xué)品成分，來(lái)追溯導(dǎo)彈的制造商,，甚至還能查出終端用戶,。

????待這一過(guò)程結(jié)束之后，我們將回到之前提到的監(jiān)管鏈問(wèn)題,，即證明武器的提供方和導(dǎo)彈發(fā)射方是誰(shuí),。即使這個(gè)問(wèn)題在短期內(nèi)水落石出，也并不意味著問(wèn)題很快就能在法庭上解決,。在未來(lái)四天內(nèi),，我們將確切得知關(guān)于MH17航班被擊落的時(shí)間、方式和地點(diǎn),。甚至可能很快就會(huì)知道元兇是誰(shuí),。但是，法庭上責(zé)任方的判定,，以及隨后給予遇難者家屬應(yīng)有的賠償可能需要耗費(fèi)數(shù)年的時(shí)間,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Lina

????During the Vietnam War, Air France had a daily nonstop from Paris to Hanoi. The North Vietnamese knew it. The South Vietnamese knew it. And the U.S. knew it. And that plane was never attacked.

????But the missile attack that downed MH 17 was a game-changer, and in the risk business, the stakes were just raised stratospherically. The insurance companies that write war-risk policies are now beginning to change their exclusions to add a much wider tract of territory that they now would characterize as a war zone. In doing so, they are putting airlines on notice that—with or without government orders—an airline flying over that zone would be violating the terms of that particular policy. And no airline is going to do risk voiding its coverage.

????Meanwhile, at the scene of the crash, the retrieval of the black boxes (the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder) may only have symbolic significance and may have no real constructive role in determining the details of the crash. At this point, assuming they are found intact, not compromised and taken to the appropriate air crash investigation lab, about the only thing the black boxes can contribute is an exact time when the plane was hit with the missile and the aircraft lost electric power.

????What’s crucial to the investigators is getting their hands on the fuselage. They need to inspect the metal for definitive signs of striation marks (which would be consistent with chemical explosive, like Semtex, which they quickly discovered on the inside of the fuselage of Pan Am 103) and for the shape of the metal. Twisted out is consistent with an explosion from inside the plane. Twisted in– with burn marks – is consistent with an explosion from outside the plane. Over the next 96 hours, assuming the investigators have unfettered access to the site, they should be able to construct a timeline, and a forensic trail that could give them the chemical DNA they need to lead them back to the missile manufacturer and perhaps even the end-user.

????Then there is the aforementioned chain of custody issue—meaning the issue of proving who supplied the weapon and who fired it. Even if we gain clarity on that in the near term, it does not mean it will be settled in a court of law anytime soon. In the next four days, we should be able to learn conclusively the when, the how and the where of the downing of MH17. We might even soon learn the who. But proving who’s responsible in a court of law, and giving families their due, could easily take years.