????2014年上半年發(fā)生了很多出人意料的事,，比如眾議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖埃里克?坎托丟掉了初選，美國(guó)足球隊(duì)歷史性地殺進(jìn)了世界杯16強(qiáng),，新一季的《權(quán)力的游戲》（Game of Thrones）比上一季還要血腥,。

????上半年也是汽車(chē)業(yè)奇峰迭起的六個(gè)月，很多結(jié)果都出人意料,。今年經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境總體非常樂(lè)觀,，有些細(xì)分市場(chǎng)、品牌和汽車(chē)廠商的表現(xiàn)非常搶眼,，但也有一些折戟沉沙的例子,。盡管上半年接連遭遇了一連串召回事件，但通用汽車(chē)（General Motors）上半年的銷(xiāo)量卻超出了預(yù)期,。相比之下,，剛剛換了新帥的福特（Ford）則表現(xiàn)得差強(qiáng)人意。大多數(shù)豪華品牌的銷(xiāo)量都有所加速,，只有仍然處于恢復(fù)期的凱迪拉克（Cadillac）不升反降,。另外，斯巴魯（Subaru）交出了一份耀眼的成績(jī)單,，而Mini則表現(xiàn)不佳,。

????在查看了銷(xiāo)量數(shù)字、讀過(guò)了馬后炮式的分析文章之后,，行業(yè)觀察人士們面前仍然擺著一些令人感到矛盾,、驚訝或不解的問(wèn)題。

????銷(xiāo)量：隨著汽車(chē)年銷(xiāo)量猛漲到1600萬(wàn)輛以上,，而且今年很有希望成為2006年以來(lái)汽車(chē)賣(mài)得最火的一年,，樂(lè)觀已經(jīng)成了汽車(chē)業(yè)的主流情緒?！镀?chē)新聞》（Automotive News ）引用一位證券分析師的話(huà)稱(chēng),，2017年美國(guó)的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量有望達(dá)到1800萬(wàn)輛。也有人認(rèn)為,，這一輪的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售周期已經(jīng)走到了頂峰,，恐怕要歇一歇才能爬上更高的紀(jì)錄。有些分析師還特別提到了時(shí)下越來(lái)越流行的車(chē)輛以舊換新貸款,，有的能貸六七年甚至八年,。

????召回：今年六月,，通用汽車(chē)一共賣(mài)出了267,461臺(tái)轎車(chē)和卡車(chē)，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了此前的預(yù)期,，也暫時(shí)平息了批評(píng)人士的口舌,。貌似最近通用和其他廠商發(fā)出的一連串召回聲明已經(jīng)讓新車(chē)買(mǎi)家形成了“召回疲勞”,，反而不怎么往心里去了,。另外，大多數(shù)涉及召回的車(chē)型都是舊款而非新款,，也許也是沒(méi)有影響到銷(xiāo)量的原因之一,。

????混合動(dòng)力車(chē)型：據(jù)IHS　Automotive公司的分析師湯姆?利比介紹，從2009年開(kāi)始,，市面上的混合動(dòng)力車(chē)型逐年遞增,，如今已經(jīng)有多達(dá)47款在售，但它們的市場(chǎng)份額卻沒(méi)能實(shí)現(xiàn)同樣迅猛的增幅,。今年頭六個(gè)月,，混動(dòng)車(chē)型的市場(chǎng)份額相比去年同期有所下跌，只是車(chē)型數(shù)量有所增長(zhǎng)而已,。雖然利比并沒(méi)有說(shuō),，但據(jù)我本人猜測(cè)，愿意為省幾塊汽油錢(qián)而多花很多錢(qián)買(mǎi)混動(dòng)車(chē)的消費(fèi)者可能沒(méi)有此前人們預(yù)想的那么多,。要想大幅促進(jìn)混動(dòng)車(chē)的銷(xiāo)量,，前提是汽油價(jià)格必須大幅提高。另外,，現(xiàn)代（Hyundai）和福特也都承認(rèn)他們標(biāo)榜的混動(dòng)車(chē)型的油耗其實(shí)是有水分的,。

????皮卡：獨(dú)立分析師沃倫?布朗尼指出，雖然2005年創(chuàng)下了皮卡銷(xiāo)量的紀(jì)錄,，但今年的皮卡銷(xiāo)售速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)地超過(guò)了2005年,，不過(guò)布朗尼并不認(rèn)為皮卡銷(xiāo)時(shí)不時(shí)還會(huì)保持三到四年的高速增長(zhǎng)。他說(shuō)：“不幸的是,，我們并不接近上一次銷(xiāo)量高峰時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,。當(dāng)年實(shí)際GDP的增長(zhǎng)率平均超過(guò)3%，新建房屋超過(guò)1700間,，當(dāng)時(shí)的月薪水平使大型皮卡的愛(ài)好者也能夠成為皮卡的買(mǎi)主,。因此，我們要等到下一個(gè)銷(xiāo)售周期——可能是2017年到2018年,，才能超過(guò)2005年的銷(xiāo)售高峰,。”這對(duì)底特律三巨頭來(lái)說(shuō)不是并不是一個(gè)好消息,，因?yàn)槠たI(yè)務(wù)對(duì)“三巨頭”來(lái)說(shuō)都是重要的利潤(rùn)來(lái)源,。

????細(xì)分市場(chǎng)：根據(jù)《汽車(chē)新聞》的計(jì)算,，今年上半年，緊湊跨界車(chē)型（如本田CR-V）的銷(xiāo)量上升了13%,，達(dá)到110萬(wàn)臺(tái),。中型家轎【如豐田凱美瑞（Toyota Camry）】的銷(xiāo)量下降了3%，為130萬(wàn)臺(tái),。話(huà)說(shuō)起來(lái),，跨界和小型SUV到底是什么時(shí)候變成了最受歡迎的車(chē)型？

????The first half of 2014 has unfolded in unpredictable ways: House majority leader Eric Cantor lost a primary election, the U.S. soccer team made it to the Round of 16 in the World Cup, and “Game of Thrones” was actually bloodier than the year before.

????And so it went in auto sales: Many results were unexpected. In an overall economic environment that was surprisingly positive, some segments, brands, and manufacturers glistened while others faltered. Despite being battered by an epidemic of recalls, General Motors GM 0.53% posted better sales than expected, while Ford F 0.98% , celebrating the elevation of its new young CEO, fared worse. Sales of most luxury cars accelerated but Cadillac, a brand still in recovery, fell back. Subaru shined while Mini moped.

????After looking over the numbers and reading the post-game analyses, here are some contradictions, mysteries, and surprises that confronted industry observers from January to June.

????Sales: With sales running at an annual rate above 16 million cars and trucks and headed toward their best finish since 2006, optimism is the prevailing emotion.Automotive News quoted one securities analyst musing that sales might reach 18 million by 2017. Others believe that sales have peaked for this cycle and need to take a breather before heading higher. They pointed in particular at the growing popularity of six, seven, and even eight-year loans that could leave customers owing money when they go to trade in their old car for a new one.

????Recalls: GM sold 267,461 cars and trucks in June, far exceeding expectations and temporarily silencing its critics. It seems that the cascade of recent announcements from GM and other manufacturers has created “recall fatigue” among new car buyers. Besides, most of the recalled cars are older models that don’t show up in new car sales.

????Hybrids: The number of hybrid models has increased every year, from 2009 through this year—it now totals 47—but their market share has not kept pace, according to Tom Libby, veteran IHS Automotive analyst. Hybrid share in the first six months actually declined from last year, despite an increase in model count. Libby doesn’t say, but my guess is that the number of buyers willing to pay a premium for gas savings is shallower than expected and it will take another leap in gas prices to jump-start sales. Consumers may also be wary of hybrid mileage claims. Both Hyundai and Ford admit to publishing overly optimistic mileage claims for their hybrid models.

????Trucks: Pickup truck sales are well off the pace of their peak year in 2005, says independent analyst Warren Browne, and he doesn’t see them climbing up to their former levels for another three or four years. “Unfortunately, we are not close to past peak economic realities, when real GDP growth averaged more than 3%, housing starts were above 1.7 million units and monthly paystubs allowed large-pickup intenders to become consumers,” says Browne. “We are going to have to wait until the next sales cycle, probably 2017-2018, to surpass the 2005 sales peak.” That’s bad news for the Detroit Three, for whom pickup trucks are an outsize source of profits.

????Segments: Compact crossovers climbed another 13% to 1.1 million by Automotive News’ calculation (think Honda CR-V,) while midsize sedans shrank 3% to 1.3 million (think Toyota Camry). How long before these lines cross and baby SUVs become the most popular body style?