????無(wú)論是否公平,，工商管理碩士（MBA）學(xué)位不值得去讀的觀點(diǎn)正在迅速演變成一種共識(shí),。有些人的利益跟MBA的未來(lái)息息相關(guān)，因此,，他們就像抓住救命稻草那樣拼命進(jìn)行反駁并不讓人覺(jué)得意外,。

????上個(gè)月底，商學(xué)院教授斯科特?羅斯坦撰文替MBA叫屈,。他的論據(jù)是,，如果照片分享網(wǎng)站Snapchat首席執(zhí)行官埃文?斯皮格爾從斯坦福（Stanford）大學(xué)畢業(yè)后再拿個(gè)MBA學(xué)位，他現(xiàn)在的境況就會(huì)好得多,，他就能更好地評(píng)估那些曾經(jīng)擺在他面前,、最終卻沒(méi)能打動(dòng)他的那些機(jī)會(huì),，比如去年秋天Facebook 公司30億美元的收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)被斯皮格爾一口回絕。隨后不久,，Snapchat進(jìn)行了一輪融資,，籌集了5000萬(wàn)美元資金，但對(duì)這家公司的估值卻降到了20億美元,。

????羅斯坦寫(xiě)道：

????創(chuàng)始人埃文?斯皮格爾（在斯坦福大學(xué)獲得學(xué)士學(xué)位）想繼續(xù)持有多數(shù)股權(quán),，雖然這很容易理解，但在Snapchat至今仍無(wú)收入的情況下,，讓10億美元從自己的手邊溜走仍然讓許許多多的人感到意外（當(dāng)然,，判斷斯皮格爾是否得到了團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon的青睞還為時(shí)尚早）。收購(gòu)談判包含了很多博弈理論,，但如果了解分析和估值背后的科學(xué),，就能在掌握更多信息的情況下做出決定。

????也就是說(shuō),，Snapchat目前還沒(méi)有收入,，外界也沒(méi)有聽(tīng)說(shuō)它在創(chuàng)收方面有什么計(jì)劃。這家公司是值30億美元,，還是只值20億美元呢,？或者1000億美元？大家在這方面的猜測(cè)和斯皮格爾并無(wú)高下之別,，羅斯坦也是一樣,。但羅斯坦認(rèn)為，估值“科學(xué)”能為斯皮格爾提供答案,，還能幫助他決定,，到底應(yīng)該考慮哪些收購(gòu)建議，拒絕哪些,。羅斯坦贊賞了一番組成MBA課程主體的現(xiàn)實(shí)世界案例分析之后,，舉了一個(gè)非現(xiàn)實(shí)事例，說(shuō)的是一位擁有MBA學(xué)位的初創(chuàng)型企業(yè)CEO通過(guò)對(duì)收購(gòu)建議進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析賺了很大一筆錢(qián),。

????羅斯坦在文章中說(shuō)：“所有初創(chuàng)型企業(yè)的核心都是它的價(jià)值,，而構(gòu)建這個(gè)核心的基礎(chǔ)是一系列金融原理和指標(biāo)（產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流的情況、盈利,、銷(xiāo)售額等）,，而不是情感。掌握這些基本商業(yè)原理能讓一位創(chuàng)業(yè)者用腦子,、而不是用心來(lái)做決定,。”

????在某種程度上，或者說(shuō)對(duì)有現(xiàn)金流,、盈利和銷(xiāo)售額等要素的公司來(lái)說(shuō),，情況確實(shí)如此。但就Snapchat而言,，除了“等”這個(gè)要素,，其他東西它一樣也沒(méi)有。這家公司有的只是數(shù)百萬(wàn)虛度光陰的青少年相互發(fā)送的幾百萬(wàn)轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝的照片和信息,，而且還不知道有多少討厭的家伙給別人發(fā)了不知道多少?gòu)垚盒牡淖耘恼?。因?yàn)槟X子里沒(méi)概念，斯皮格爾能做的就只有跟著感覺(jué)走,，情況就是這樣,。

????不過(guò)，肯定有更好的例子,，比如有具體收入和切實(shí)經(jīng)營(yíng)計(jì)劃,、進(jìn)而可以正兒八經(jīng)地展開(kāi)分析的初創(chuàng)公司？這樣的企業(yè)當(dāng)然存在,。但對(duì)MBA不利的一項(xiàng)依據(jù)是,，許多攻讀MBA的學(xué)生在本科階段就已經(jīng)掌握了所有獲得MBA學(xué)位需要了解的知識(shí)——羅斯坦對(duì)這一點(diǎn)并沒(méi)有提出反對(duì)意見(jiàn)。對(duì)于希望成為金融顧問(wèn),、投資者或者分析師的人,，MBA也許有價(jià)值【但注冊(cè)金融分析師（CFA）可能要好得多】。但在美國(guó)商業(yè)史上,，無(wú)論是最近還是很久以前,，有一種情況俯仰皆是，那就是,，很少或者根本沒(méi)有接受過(guò)正規(guī)商業(yè)培訓(xùn)的企業(yè)主憑借絕妙的主意或者堅(jiān)持不懈，最終取得了巨大成功,。這些年輕的創(chuàng)業(yè)者都沒(méi)有受過(guò)多少科班培訓(xùn),，但他們都聘請(qǐng)了經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的管理者來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)自己的公司。在這方面,，人們馬上就會(huì)想到谷歌（Google）,、Facebook和雅虎（Yahoo）。如果愿意,，斯皮格爾也可以這樣做,。

????The argument that it’s not worth it to pursue an MBAis fast transforming into a truism, whether fairly or not. So it’s no surprise to see some desperate straw-grasping from people who have a stake in the degree’s future.

????On Monday, Scott Rostan, a business professor, offered an MBA apologia resting on the idea that if Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel had only earned an MBA after graduating from Stanford, he’d be in a much better position today. He’d be more able to evaluate the insensible deals being thrust at him, such as Facebook’s $3 billion offer last fall, which Spiegel rejected. Soon after, the company was valued at $2 billion after a $50 million financing round.

????Rostan wrote:

????While it’s easy to understand why founder Evan Spiegel (holder of an undergraduate degree from Stanford University) wanted to retain majority ownership, passing up that additional $1 billion when Snapchat currently has no revenue surprised a lot of people. (Of course, it’s too early to tell whether Spiegel pulled a Groupon.) Negotiations for an acquisition involve lots of game theory, but understanding the science behind the analysis and valuation can promote better-informed decisions.

????So Snapchat has no revenues and no known plans for how it will ever draw any revenues. Is it worth $3 billion, or only $2 billion? Or is it worth, perhaps, $0 billion? Or $100 billion? Your guess is as good as Spiegel’s. Or Rostan’s. But Rostan thinks that the “science” of valuation would supply Spiegel with the answers and help him decide which offers to consider and which to reject. After extolling the benefits of the real-world case studies that make up much of the MBA curricula, Rostan offers no real-world examples of an MBA-holding CEO of a startup getting a great deal for him- or herself after running offers through spreadsheet analyses.

????Rostan writes that, “at the core of any startup is its value, which is based on a set of financial principles and metrics (cash-flow generation, earnings, sales, etc.), rather than an emotional feeling. Understanding these basic business principles allows an entrepreneur to make decisions with his head rather than his heart.”

????And that’s true, to a point, for companies that have cash flow, earnings, sales, and “etc.” But Snapchat doesn’t have any of those things, unless the “etc.,” comprises millions of time-wasting teenagers sending millions of vaporous photos and messages to each other, and who knows how many creeps sending who knows how many distasteful selfies. In the absence of information for his brain, all Spiegel has to go on is his heart, such as it is.

????But surely there are better examples — startups with measurable revenues and solid business plans that lend themselves to formal analysis? Of course there are. But one of the arguments against MBAs — not addressed by Rostan — is that many students learn all they need to know about this stuff as undergrads. If you want to be a financial advisor, investor, or analyst, maybe an MBA will be valuable to you. (Or maybe a CFA would be far, far better.) But American business history, both recent and long past, is filled with stories of owners with little or no formal business training either getting great deals for their companies or holding on to them and managing them to great success. And all kinds of young owners without much formal training have hired experienced executives to manage their companies. Google GOOG -0.34% , Facebook FB -0.46% , and Yahoo YHOO 2.57% come immediately to mind. Spiegel could do the same if he wanted.