????聰明的科技投資者要的是潛力,，而不是業(yè)績。他們鎖定的公司會用科技開拓出新的市場,，并在其中占據(jù)主導地位；此外,，這些新市場還具有極大的增長潛力,。出現(xiàn)這種情況的原因是科技投資精英掌握著兩條別人沒有的思路。第一條是,，行將消亡的行業(yè)不會出現(xiàn)傳奇性公司,。第二條是，科技領域贏家通吃,，谷歌（Google）,、Facebook和客戶關系管理解決方案供應商Salesforce.com這樣主導特定市場的公司經常能逐步占據(jù)高達50%的市場份額。

????大多數(shù)金融信息和分析都包含了大量歷史數(shù)據(jù)——收入,、銷售額、未完成訂單、利潤率,、盈利等,。這種依托于數(shù)據(jù)表格的歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析通常空洞無物,。

????具有傳奇色彩的投資者著眼的是未來,。他們研究的是潛力。把注意力集中在潛力方面要比分析現(xiàn)有格局困難得多,。衡量一個成熟行業(yè)——比如搜索引擎廣告——的市場相對容易,；而預測一個新興行業(yè)——比如“內容營銷”——則需要從非傳統(tǒng)角度進行考察，同時在觀念上實現(xiàn)突破,。

????紅杉資本（Sequoia Capital）合伙人吉姆?戈茨說：“要在投資時做出聰明的選擇,，就要知道某個市場的潛在規(guī)模和重要性。我們尋找的是以使命為導向的創(chuàng)始人,。他們既能建立一家偉大的公司,，又能開創(chuàng)一個偉大的領域,。”他確實了解這一點,。戈茨對免費手機短信工具WhatsApp的早期投資最終變成了一筆享譽全球的交易,，價值達到190億美元。Facebook買下的不光是WhatsApp的收入,、技術,，也不光是它的4.5億活躍用戶。Facebook要的是后者在移動短信領域的領先位置,。這個新市場具有戰(zhàn)略意義,，而且正在飛速增長。據(jù)報道,，這是風投行業(yè)歷史上規(guī)模最大的收購,。

????所有科技市場都會逐漸萎縮。要了解成熟公司的增長前景,，首先就要看看它們是否遭到了侵蝕以及侵蝕情況如何,。

????計算機制造商戴爾（Dell）就面臨著這樣的問題。服務器,、臺式機和筆記本電腦的需求增長都趨于停滯,。在云技術、智能手機和平板電腦等新市場處于領先位置的公司正在扼殺前者的未來,。情形就跟個人電腦徹底擊敗打字機如出一轍,。這就是戴爾轉向軟件和服務的原因。他們正在設法獲得新的潛力,，因為他們目前所在的領域正在遭到侵蝕,。

????通常，各家公司都在現(xiàn)有行業(yè)爭奪市場份額,。想想可口可樂（Coca-Cola）和百事可口（Pepsi）,、或者8分鐘腹肌訓練法和7分鐘腹肌訓練法之爭就會明白這一點。隨著新科技開創(chuàng)出新市場,，消費者口袋里的錢也會從舊的市場流向新的市場,。

????SAP和甲骨文公司（Oracle）這些當前行業(yè)主導者都在關注著這樣的“惡魔”。人力資源軟件開發(fā)商Workday去年的收入增長了71%以上,，Salesforce.com現(xiàn)在的規(guī)模已經達到40億美元,，增長了30%以上，市值為340億美元,。此外,，為人們提供數(shù)據(jù)備份、同步和共享解決方案的Dropbox,、提供在線分享和內容管理服務的Box,、采用軟件即服務模式的軟件服務商ServiceNow,、云軟件開發(fā)商Netsuite以及其他許多公司都在不斷地增長。這些新興企業(yè)都沒有用傳統(tǒng)手段開展競爭,。它們促使消費者的資金從本地軟件轉向新型云軟件,。這種變化對本地軟件來說就像斷了氧氣，所有人都會窒息,。

????這種風險是科技公司面臨的最大威脅,。歷史情況表明，行動遲緩會迅速“殺死”一家公司,。要想知道原先的行業(yè)領頭羊能否繼續(xù)增長,，訣竅就在于觀察它們遭到的侵蝕有多嚴重，以及它們在發(fā)掘新的潛力方面有多迅速,。

????大型企業(yè)的股價總是很高,，這是因為潛力加執(zhí)行就等于溢價。這也解釋了收入規(guī)模為750億美元的亞馬遜（Amazon）為什么擁有1550億美元的市值,，而收入4760億美元的沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）的市值為2450億美元,。難題在于處于行業(yè)主導地位的高增長公司應該具有什么樣的溢價水平？這個問題的答案取決于你認為某家公司的策略通過本領域的潛力能賺到多少錢,。

????特斯拉汽車（Tesla）比福特汽車（Ford Motor）晚誕生了100年。今天,，特斯拉汽車的市值達到了260億美元,，而福特汽車的市值為610億美元。你們認為電動汽車行業(yè)有多大的潛力呢,？清潔科技信息網站CleanTechnica董事扎卡里?認為,，目前這個行業(yè)的增長速度為300%。

????富國證券（Wells Fargo Securities）董事總經理詹森?梅納德說：“如果這個領域夠大,，而且其中的王者有足夠的統(tǒng)治力,，現(xiàn)在的估值多少基本上都沒有關系。做出投資決策的關鍵在于了解這個領域的潛力,，以及這個王者制定規(guī)則,、發(fā)展以及長久主導的能力?！?/p>

????隨著科技創(chuàng)新速度的加快,，新行業(yè)出現(xiàn)的速度也在加快。人們也因此可能更快地賺錢或者賠錢,。要想在科技領域賺錢,，行業(yè)分析就應該像財務分析一樣具有戰(zhàn)略地位。（財富中文網）

????本文三位作者作為合伙人聯(lián)合創(chuàng)立了咨詢公司Play Bigger Advisors,。這家公司設在舊金山,，為科技公司高管在建立市場導向型企業(yè)方面提供培訓,。

????譯者：Charlie

????Savvy technology investors seek potential, not performance. They identify companies leveraging technology to build and dominate new market sectors that show promise for significant growth. Because elite tech investors know two things that others don't: First, there is no such thing as a legendary company in a dying sector. And second, the technology business is a winner-take-all game, where companies that dominate specific markets in tech, such as Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Salesforce.com (CRM), often gain upwards of 50% market share over time.

????Most financial news and analysis are a blizzard of historical numbers: Revenue, sales, backlog, margins, earnings, etc. This spreadsheet-based, historical analysis is often void of context.

????Legendary investors look to the future. They study the potential. Wrapping your brain around potential is a lot harder than analyzing an existing space. A mature sector like search advertising has a market that is relatively easy to measure. But, making a bet on an emerging space like "content marketing" requires non-traditional examination and a leap of faith.

????"Smart investment choices require understanding the potential size and importance of the market category. We seek mission-driven founders who can build a great company and category at the same time," Sequoia Capital partner Jim Goetz says. He should know. His early investment in WhatsApp turned into the $19 billion transaction heard around the world. Facebook didn't just buy WhatsApp's revenue, technology or its 450 million active users. Facebook wanted WhatsApp's leading position in a strategic, massively growing new market called mobile messaging. The transaction was reported to be the largest acquisition in venture history.

????All technology markets fall off over time. Understanding the growth prospects for mature companies starts with examining how much, if any, erosion they face.

????This is Dell's problem. Server, desktop and laptop demand is stagnating. The companies leading new markets for cloud, smartphone and tablet are neutering their future. The same way the personal computer crushed the typewriter. That's why Dell is pivoting to software and services. They are trying to access new potential because their current categories are eroding.

????Traditionally, companies fight for market share within existing sectors. Think Coke vs. Pepsi or Eight Minute Abs vs. Seven Minute Abs. As new technologies create new markets, customers shift dollars from the old to the new.

????Firms that currently dominate their sectors, such as SAP (SAP) and Oracle (ORCL), are staring at this demon now. Workday grew revenue over 71% last year, Salesforce.com (CRM) is now a $4 billion company, growing at over 30% with a market cap of $34 billion. Additionally, Dropbox, Box, ServiceNow, Netsuite and many more, continue to ascend. These new players are not competing with conventional weapons. They are driving customer spending away from on-premise apps to new cloud apps. As oxygen leaves the space, everyone suffocates.

????This type of risk is the biggest threat technology companies face. As history shows, slow kills companies fast. The trick to understanding if the old leaders can grow again is examining how much erosion they face and how quickly they are pursuing new potential.

????Big players always have outsized stock prices because potential plus execution equals a premium. This explains why Amazon's (AMZN) market cap is $155 billion with $75 billion in revenue, while Wal-Mart (WMT) is worth $245 billion on $476 billion in revenue. The tough question is what premium should high-growth companies that dominate their sectors have? Answering the question lies in what you believe about a given company's strategy to make money off of their category potential.

????Tesla (TSLA) was founded 100 years after the Ford Motor Company (F). Today, Tesla has a market cap of $26 billion vs. Ford at $61 billion. How much potential do you think the electric car space has? According to Zachary Shahan, director of CleanTechnica, it's growing at 300%.

????"If the category is big enough and the category king is dominant enough, current valuation is almost irrelevant. The key to making investment decisions is understanding category potential and the ability of the category king to define, develop and dominate the space over time," says Jason Maynard, managing director at Wells Fargo Securities.

????As technology innovation accelerates so do new sectors. That opens new opportunities to make and lose money more quickly. Sector analysis should be as strategic as financial analysis if you want to make money in tech.

????Christopher Lochhead, Dave Peterson, and Al Ramadan are co-founding partners at Play Bigger Advisors, a San Francisco-based firm that coaches technology executives to build market-leading companies.