????由于Facebook用戶通過移動(dòng)設(shè)備登陸網(wǎng)站，這一點(diǎn)可能限制未來的增長(zhǎng),。過去一年,，F(xiàn)acebook移動(dòng)收入增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，主要是因?yàn)?，一年前這項(xiàng)收入流還非常新,，而且不重要。未來幾年，這種對(duì)比就不會(huì)那么顯著了,。簡(jiǎn)言之,，經(jīng)過令人驚奇的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的一年之后，F(xiàn)acebook的增長(zhǎng)率可能再次進(jìn)入平臺(tái)期,。

????Facebook購(gòu)買新的成長(zhǎng)公司可能遭遇問題,。一旦一家大公司的內(nèi)生性增長(zhǎng)停滯，常見的做法是收購(gòu)高成長(zhǎng)公司,。馬克?扎克伯格清楚這一點(diǎn),，這就是為什么他的公司在Instagram即將成為移動(dòng)設(shè)備圖片分享行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖之時(shí)收購(gòu)這家公司的原因所在?；仡櫰饋砜?，這筆交易對(duì)Facebook比對(duì)Instagram產(chǎn)生的效果要好很多。

????上周,，閱后即焚圖片分享網(wǎng)站Snapchat回絕了Facebook給的一項(xiàng)更慷慨的出價(jià),。這個(gè)插曲可以理解為，當(dāng)今熱門初創(chuàng)公司不夢(mèng)想著被Facebook收購(gòu),，它們渴望取代Facebook,，同時(shí)保持獨(dú)立。據(jù)報(bào)道,，Snapchat的創(chuàng)始人們不愿意替扎克伯格賣命,，而且公司的風(fēng)投資助人也對(duì)這筆交易也沒什么興趣。

????數(shù)以千計(jì)的初創(chuàng)公司渴望被Facebook高價(jià)收購(gòu),。但身為初創(chuàng)公司的Snapchats并不是其中的一員——這家罕見的公司與它不斷壯大的用戶秘密互動(dòng),。在他們眼里，馬克?扎克伯格就是那個(gè)統(tǒng)治者,。而且,，如果你真正強(qiáng)大，你不會(huì)把自己賣給統(tǒng)治者,，不論對(duì)方出什么價(jià),。

????Facebook繼續(xù)面臨青少年問題。埃伯斯曼在最近的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議中努力為這個(gè)問題披上積極的外衣,。盡管這家公司“接近完全滲入青少年群體”,，他表示，“我們的確發(fā)現(xiàn)我們的十幾歲少年每日用戶數(shù)量下降”,。這個(gè)評(píng)論產(chǎn)生了事與愿違的作用,，引發(fā)對(duì)青少年問題新的關(guān)注,。

????另外一方面,，廣告主對(duì)年齡更大的、花更多錢的人群更感興趣,。另外,，如果青少年歲數(shù)增長(zhǎng),，但卻不轉(zhuǎn)移到Facebook的平臺(tái)上來，它可能會(huì)成為一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期問題,。Snapchat原本是用來幫助解決這個(gè)問題的,，但交易失敗只是進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化了Facebook竭力跟新一代用戶扯上關(guān)系的形象。

????最后一個(gè)動(dòng)向不一定是一個(gè)走弱的跡象,，但值得考慮,。上周，埃伯斯曼出售了價(jià)值4,300萬美元的Facebook股票,，占其Facebook持股的9%,，售價(jià)約47美元。雖然此項(xiàng)出售是預(yù)先安排交易計(jì)劃的一部分,，但它同時(shí)也是過去10年由一位公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官進(jìn)行的數(shù)額最高的股票出售,。

????這樣預(yù)先安排交易計(jì)劃的用意是讓出售看起來不像是內(nèi)部人士拋售的樣子，我懷疑這是埃伯斯曼的意圖,。但關(guān)于交易的時(shí)機(jī)大家還是有話可講,。可以證明,，沒有人能（比埃伯斯曼）對(duì)Facebook的財(cái)務(wù)狀況有更好的把握,。如果你的內(nèi)心感覺告訴你這是一個(gè)出售的好時(shí)機(jī)，它就不是內(nèi)部交易,。但這可能也是其他Facebook投資者想知曉的直覺,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：楊智?????

????Since Facebook users are accessing the site on mobile devices, this could limit future growth. Facebook's mobile revenue growth in the past year has been strong partly because, a year ago, this revenue stream was so new and insiginificant. In coming years, the comparison's won't be so dramatic. In short, after a surprisingly strong year, Facebook's growth rates may plateau again.

????Facebook may have problems buying new growth. When a big company's organic growth stalls, it's common to buy fast-growing companies. Mark Zuckerberg knows this, which is why his company bought Instagram when it was looking to become a leader in mobile picture sharing. In retrospect, that deal worked out much better for Facebook than for Instagram.

????Last week, Snapchat spurned an even more generous offer from Facebook. The episode underscored how today's hot startups don't dream of being bought by Facebook, they long to supplant Facebook, which means remaining independent. Snapchat's founders were reportedly averse to working for Zuckerberg, while its VC backers weren't interested in the deal either.

????There are thousands of startups that would love to be bought by Facebook at a rich price. But the Snapchats among them – the rare beast that resonates mysteriously with an ever-growing audience – aren't among them. To them, Mark Zuckerberg is The Man. And if you're really good, you don't sell out to The Man at any price.

????Facebook continues to have a teenager problem. In the recent earnings call, Ebersman tried to put a positive spin on this. Although the company is "close to fully penetrated among teens," he said "we did see a decrease in daily users specifically among younger teens." The comments backfired, drawing new attention to the issue.

????On the one hand, advertisers are more interested in older demographics that spend more money. On the other, this could be a long-term issue if teens grow older and don't migrate to Facebook's platform. Snapchat was supposed to help resolve this problem, but the failed deal only added to the image that Facebook is struggling to relate to a new generation of users.

????One final development that is not necessarily a bearish sign but is worth considering. Last week, Ebersman sold $43 million worth of his shares, or 9% of his Facebook holdings, at around $47 a share. While the sale was part of a pre-arranged trading plan, it's also the largest stock sale by a CFO in the last decade.

????Such pre-arranged trading plans were set up to allow sales without creating the appearance of insider dumping, which I doubt was Ebersman's intention. Still, there is something to be said about the timing. Arguably, no one has a better perspective on Facebook's financial outlook. It's not insider trading if your gut is telling you this is a good time to sell. It may, however, be an instinct other Facebook investors may want to note.