????第二,，埃及國內的體制無法干預這種新的民眾現象,。由于這種體制都是基于特殊利益而形成的，因此它在結構上就存在缺陷,，而且也缺乏信譽,。正是因為這個原因,，這個體制無法將民眾能量的爆發(fā)引導至有益的領域。的確,，與此完全相反的是，體制的弱點滋生了兩極分化和猜疑,。

????第三,，可信的政治領袖的缺失加劇了這個挑戰(zhàn)。由于處于無領導狀態(tài),，2011年起義雖然出現了難能可貴的民眾團結,，但它卻轉變成了對急需的革命重心的破壞，這個重心便是從結束壓迫歷史轉變?yōu)榻ㄔO美好的未來,。

????第四,，缺乏體制和政治領袖的后果要比破壞國內和解更為嚴重。它會進一步惡化已然令人不安的經濟和金融局勢,。

????埃及經濟已經脆弱不堪,，然而它的方方面面都在經歷著磨難——從增長和通貨膨脹到預算和國際收支平衡——因此，這個貧困普遍,、收入嚴重不均,、人才利用率低下的國家承受的壓力進一步加大。

????如今,，所有外國機構都感到無能為力,，無法改變這些悲慘的現狀。國內短缺問題首先需要通過內部來解決,，而前提是埃及國內實現政治和解,。嘗試通過外部力量解決問題的做法，即使是出于善意,，也很有可能收不到任何效果,；這種嘗試可能還會讓缺乏信任的埃及社會走向分裂的深淵。

????但這并不意味著埃及的盟友們應該遠離這個尤為混亂的局面,。相反,，他們應該在短期內伺機行動，同時修正整體的長期策略,。就保持與埃及對話這件事而言,，美國是對的。在使用武力,、包容性政治參與和早日回歸民主統(tǒng)治方面,，我們尤其有必要通過靜默外交手段來重申最大限度克制的重要性。在這一方面,，美國提出了一個十分重要的外部觀點,，而這個觀點也得到了其他國家經驗洞見的補充,。

????我們同樣有必要繼續(xù)修繕美國與埃及開展長期互動的渠道。金融援助雖然很有意義,，但卻已經失去了它傳統(tǒng)的“胡蘿卜加大棒”的作用,。對比埃及能夠和已經從海灣國家獲得的援助，美國援助的數量級要小得多,；而且援助集中于軍用的現狀限制了它對社會的影響,。

????未來，埃及社會需要更為自主的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神,、現代持久的體制和加速的技術跨越式發(fā)展,，這些都將為國家生產力帶來實質性的影響。美國可以在所有這些方面為埃及公民提供支持,。而且以上這些將最終幫助經濟重新回到可持續(xù)發(fā)展的軌道上來,，實現更快的、更具包容性的增長,，同時帶來一定數量的就業(yè)機會和更多的社會公正,。

????記住，擁有主人翁意識的公民和左右自己命運的能力比其他事物更為重要,。

????Second, Egypt's domestic institutions are in no position to respond to this new grass-root reality. Historically co-opted by special interest, they are structurally flawed and lack credibility. As such, they cannot channel the explosion of grass-root energy into productive ends. Indeed, quite the opposite. Their weaknesses fuel polarization and mistrust.

????Third, the lack of credible political leaders accentuates the challenges. The "leaderless" character of the 2011 revolution has gone from an admirable sign of popular integrity to undermining the much-needed revolutionary pivot: from dismantling a repressive past to building a prosperous future.

????Fourth, the absence of institutional and political anchors does more than undermine national reconciliation. It also serves to worsen an already-worrisome economic and financial situation.

????Every aspect of Egypt's already-fragile economy is suffering -- from growth and inflation, to the budget and the balance of payments -- thus placing even greater pressure on a country with widespread poverty, high income inequality, and underutilized human talent.

????There is little that any foreign entity can do today to alter these sad realities. Domestic shortfalls need first to be addressed internally, with national political reconciliation constituting a precondition. Attempts to insert an external anchor, no matter how well-intentioned, would likely be more than ineffective; they could also serve to divide a mistrusting Egyptian society even more.

????But this does not mean that Egypt's allies should step away from this really messy situation. Instead, they should maintain optionality in the short term while revamping their overall approach for the longer term.

????The U.S. is doing the right thing in preserving contact with Egyptian counterparts. It is important to stress repeatedly, particularly through quiet diplomacy, the importance of maximum restraint when it comes to the use of force, inclusive political participation, and an early return to democratic rule. In doing so, the U.S. provides an important external perspective, supplemented by insights on the experiences of other countries.

????It is also important to continue revamping the channels through which the U.S. will interact with Egypt over the longer-term. Financial aid, while meaningful, no longer plays its traditional "carrot and stick" role. Its magnitude pales in comparison to what Egypt can and has mobilized from Gulf countries; and dominance by military uses limits the societal impact.

????Looking forward, Egyptian society needs more empowered entrepreneurship, modern and durable institutions, and enhanced technological leapfrogging that would materially impact national productivity. The U.S. can support Egyptian citizens on each of these. And all would help in eventually placing the economy on a sustainable path of higher and more inclusive growth, proper job creation, and greater social justice.

????Remember, there is nothing more consequential than a citizenry that feels ownership and an ability to influence its destiny.