????在華盛頓,，有這樣一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)日漸盛行：埃及悲劇的延續(xù)證明,，盡管埃及軍隊(duì)得到了美國(guó)的大力支持，但美國(guó)已經(jīng)失去了在全球這個(gè)關(guān)鍵地區(qū)的影響力,。雖然這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)沒錯(cuò)——因?yàn)殍b于埃及目前的局勢(shì),，如今，任何外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)都無法進(jìn)行有效的干預(yù)——但它應(yīng)該作為文章的前言而不是結(jié)語,。而且在埃及這一阿拉伯世界人口最多的國(guó)家,，目前的悲痛局勢(shì)將具有深遠(yuǎn)的意義。

????很多國(guó)家都對(duì)埃及目前的局勢(shì)感到恐慌,、擔(dān)憂和沮喪,，美國(guó)只是其中之一：恐慌的是大量、不斷上升的人員傷亡數(shù)量,；擔(dān)憂的是最近的局勢(shì)讓國(guó)家離穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì),、金融、政治和社會(huì)環(huán)境漸行漸遠(yuǎn),；沮喪的是無法給予幫助,，包括全國(guó)和解的推行。

????美國(guó)感到格外惱火自然有它的理由,。

????自上個(gè)世紀(jì)70年代中期安瓦爾?薩達(dá)特歷史性地做出脫離蘇聯(lián)的決策之后,，美國(guó)就一直是埃及最緊密的盟友。它每年提供超過10億美元的援助,，同時(shí)還幫助訓(xùn)練埃及的軍隊(duì),。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家聯(lián)合開展反恐行動(dòng)。多數(shù)埃及人崇拜美國(guó)的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神,，言論自由和法治,。然而，自2011年1月解放廣場(chǎng)民眾起義以來,，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)不顧埃及政治的極端不穩(wěn)定性,，大力奉行政治平衡策略，還迅速改變了埃及國(guó)內(nèi)的聯(lián)盟,。

????可以理解的是,，鑒于這種初始條件，很多人認(rèn)為美國(guó)應(yīng)在埃及死亡暴力事件的抵制方面發(fā)揮更為有效的作用。確實(shí),，在眼下危險(xiǎn)不斷升級(jí)的時(shí)期,，美國(guó)的聲音可能是埃及倍感自豪的歷史中唯一有效的外來理性聲音。

????然而,，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)周四高明的演講和取消援助的威脅似乎都無關(guān)痛癢,。連奧巴馬也承認(rèn)，更糟糕的是,，各方都認(rèn)為美國(guó)在耍陰謀論,，包括美國(guó)的支持者前總統(tǒng)穆罕默德?穆爾西以及他的反對(duì)派。

????難怪很多人傾向于將這種局勢(shì)看做是美國(guó)缺乏政治影響力的集中體現(xiàn),。但是為了繼續(xù)討論這一話題,，我們有必要記住4點(diǎn)——因?yàn)檫@4點(diǎn)對(duì)于今后的局勢(shì)尤為重要。

????首先,，埃及目前的局勢(shì)實(shí)際上是有利于國(guó)家（和地區(qū)）長(zhǎng)期利益的負(fù)面表現(xiàn),，這是民眾在經(jīng)歷了長(zhǎng)期的壓迫和恐懼氛圍之后所表現(xiàn)出的實(shí)質(zhì)性的政治覺醒。

????2011年1月的民眾起義讓埃及民眾獲得了很多人認(rèn)為不大可能獲得,、甚至是難以想象的權(quán)力,。事實(shí)上，多數(shù)公民的地位與國(guó)內(nèi)備受壓迫,、沒有土地的農(nóng)民無異,，他們通過起義轉(zhuǎn)而獲得了話語權(quán)以及國(guó)家未來的決策權(quán)，而這個(gè)國(guó)家之前的服務(wù)對(duì)象僅僅是少數(shù)特權(quán)人士,。

????民眾在2011年1月走上街頭,，要求結(jié)束穆巴拉克長(zhǎng)達(dá)30年的鐵拳專政。去年,，首屆臨時(shí)軍閥統(tǒng)治者在向民選政治領(lǐng)袖移交政權(quán)之際故意拖延,，人們?cè)俅位氐浇诸^。他們于幾周前再次起義,，抗議總統(tǒng)沒能滿足人民的訴求,，而且更為重要的是，他們抗議總統(tǒng)意欲超越法律賦予的權(quán)力等事宜,。

????Increasingly, the unfolding Egyptian tragedy is seen in Washington circles as confirmation that the U.S. has lost influence in a critical part of the world, and particularly vis-à-vis a military that receives lots of American support. While correct -- given Egypt's current realities, no foreign entity has any meaningful influence these days -- this observation should serve as the beginning of the analysis rather than its conclusion. And the insights extend well beyond the sad circumstances of the Arab world's most populous country.

????The U.S. is on a long list of advanced and developing countries expressing dismay, concern, and frustration with what is happening in Egypt: dismay at the enormous and growing civilian casualties; concern that recent developments are taking the country even further away from economic, financial, political, and social stability; and frustration with the inability to help, including in promoting national reconciliation.

????The U.S. has reason to feel even more exasperated.

????Following President Anwar Sadat's historic pivot away from the Soviet Union in the mid-1970s, America has been Egypt's closest ally. It provides over $1 billion of aid per year, together with training for the Egyptian military. The two countries partner in fighting terrorism. Most Egyptians admire Americans' entrepreneurship, freedom of expression, and rule of law. And, since the January 2011 popular uprising that started in Tahrir Square, President Barack Obama has struck an impressive political balancing notwithstanding Egypt's extreme political fluidity and rapidly shifting domestic alliances.

????It is understandable that, with such initial conditions, many feel that the U.S. should be playing a more effective role in countering the deadly violence in Egypt. Indeed, the U.S. may be the only effective external voice of reason during an increasingly dangerous phase in Egypt's proud history.

????Yet neither the President's wise speech on Thursday nor the threat of aid cutoff seems to have an impact. To make things worse, and as acknowledged by President Obama, the U.S. finds itself in the midst of conspiracy theories originating from all sides, including from both supporters of former President Mohamed Morsi and his opponents.

????No wonder so many are inclined to characterize the situation as highlighting America's lack of political clout. But in pursuing this narrative, it is important to remember four points -- especially as they also speak to forward-looking responses.

????First, what is happening in Egypt is the dark side of a phenomenon that could actually be in the country's (and the region's) longer-term interest -- that of a material grass-root political awakening after a prolonged period of repression and culture of fear.

????The January 2011 popular uprising enabled and empowered average Egyptians in a manner that many thought unlikely if not unthinkable. In effect, most citizens went from the equivalent of oppressed landless-peasants in a nation run to benefit a small privileged elite, to having a voice and an influence on the country's destiny.

????They took to the street in January 2011 to remove a Mubarak regime that had ruled with an iron fist for 30 years. They returned last year when the first set of transitional military rulers dragged their feet in handing off to democratically elected politicians. And they were back a few weeks ago to counter a president who was failing to deliver and, more importantly, was seeking to overreach on legal and other matters.