????此外,，貨幣層面也有問(wèn)題,。由于盈利能力減弱以及負(fù)債率上升，企業(yè)被迫將更多利潤(rùn)用于償還債務(wù),，用于投資的利潤(rùn)隨之減少,。但政府似乎并不太擔(dān)心。政府官員看來(lái)已經(jīng)從上一次的刺激措施中吸取了教訓(xùn),，那就是強(qiáng)制性大規(guī)模放貸會(huì)導(dǎo)致浪費(fèi)和冒進(jìn)。

????關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率,，而是經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)社會(huì)的影響,。有一個(gè)很有力的觀點(diǎn)是，按照這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),，近來(lái)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)一直過(guò)快,。全力以赴地追求更高的產(chǎn)出造成環(huán)境嚴(yán)重退化，而且可能促使人們對(duì)腐敗持放縱態(tài)度,。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢或許會(huì)讓更多的投資用于提高中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期幸福水平和健康水平,。其中包括減少生產(chǎn)污染,，真正實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新以及創(chuàng)造人力資本。但最近公布的一些項(xiàng)目,，比如世界上最大的單體建筑,、最長(zhǎng)的海底隧道以及萬(wàn)眾矚目的空間項(xiàng)目，都表明中國(guó)積習(xí)難改,。

????投資者對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸的探討毫無(wú)用處,。只要能保持充分就業(yè)以及比較穩(wěn)定的社會(huì)局勢(shì)，就算GDP每年只增長(zhǎng)2%也完全可以接受,。相反,，如果勞資糾紛事件和破產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象激增，就算經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到7%也依然問(wèn)題重重,。

????或許測(cè)試經(jīng)濟(jì)是否硬著陸的最好方法就是看政府是否還能掌控局勢(shì),。在這方面進(jìn)行推演基本上無(wú)異于玩一場(chǎng)政治文字游戲。中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)表示,，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速還沒(méi)有跌到可接受的最低水平以下,，無(wú)論這個(gè)可接受的最低水平是多少，這句話都讓人備受鼓舞,。

????看起來(lái)目前最有可能的情況是決策層正在耐心等待,。他們掌握著強(qiáng)有力的手段，比如強(qiáng)制性放貸,、本幣貶值以及大規(guī)模推動(dòng)基建,，但這些手段都很粗放，所產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果都存在不確定性,。目前,，抱著“順其自然”的心態(tài)看來(lái)比較合適。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者：Charlie

????Still, there's a monetary problem. Because profitability is falling and leverage has risen, companies have to put more of their profits into servicing debt and less into investment. The government does not seem too bothered. Officials seem to have learned the lesson of the last stimulus: mandated mega-lending leads to wastage and recklessness.

????The key issue is not pace of growth, but the effect on society. There is a good argument that by that standard China's recent growth has been too fast. The all-out pursuit of more production led to grave environmental degradation and probably encouraged a lax attitude towards corruption.

????A slower-growing economy could allow for more investment in things that make China a happier, healthier place over the long run. Those would include cleaner production, genuine innovation and human capital. But some recently announced projects -- the world's largest free-standing building, the longest under-sea tunnel, a flamboyant space program -- suggest old habits die hard.

????Investors' talk of a hard landing in China is unhelpful. Even GDP growth of 2% a year would be quite acceptable, as long as employment remained adequate and social unrest low. Conversely, 7% growth with a spike in labor-related protests and bankruptcies would be tough.

????Perhaps the best test of a hard landing is whether the authorities appear to remain in control. Deducing that is largely a question of parsing political rhetoric. It's encouraging that Premier Li Keqiang says growth hasn't fallen below the minimum acceptable rate, whatever that is.

????What seems most likely is that policymakers are biding their time. The tools they have -- forced lending, currency depreciation, vast infrastructure mandates -- are powerful but they are also rough, and come with uncertain consequences. For now, the mentality of "best left alone" looks about right.