????2013年正成為中國(guó)穩(wěn)妥下調(diào)GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)的一年。年初,，國(guó)務(wù)院將原先8%的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正式下調(diào)至7.5%,。上周，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)樓繼偉又將這一數(shù)字降至7%,，而且說(shuō)增長(zhǎng)水平甚至有可能會(huì)更低,。

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)在減速——但這只是相對(duì)而言。中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平已經(jīng)告誡各級(jí)官員少操心GDP,，多關(guān)注民生質(zhì)量,，但投資者仍然把注意力集中在這個(gè)籠統(tǒng)的指標(biāo)上。7.5%的官方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)已經(jīng)是20世紀(jì)90年以來(lái)的最低水平,。接受較低的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度表明中國(guó)政府已經(jīng)摒棄了原先公認(rèn)的理論,，也就是經(jīng)濟(jì)增速低于8%可能會(huì)造成失業(yè)人數(shù)上升和社會(huì)局勢(shì)不穩(wěn)。

????從觀察人士的角度而言,，6%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)顯得很不尋常,。不久之前中國(guó)的正常發(fā)展速度還在10%以上。但按照其他中等收入國(guó)家的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)仍然格外的好,。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)計(jì)，今年拉美和中東的GDP增幅均為3%,。

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩有三方面的原因,。首先，對(duì)中國(guó)出口商品的需求正增長(zhǎng)得越來(lái)越慢,。6月份中國(guó)出口額下降了3%,，表現(xiàn)特別低迷，過(guò)去12個(gè)月的平均增長(zhǎng)率也處于2010年初以來(lái)的最低水平,。人民幣升值也帶來(lái)了不利影響,，需求疲軟也是如此。但隨著中國(guó)富裕水平的提高,，本幣升值是正?，F(xiàn)象，以廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力為基礎(chǔ)的出口則逐漸消失,。

????其次,，經(jīng)濟(jì)引力的影響正在逐漸增強(qiáng)。中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力群體已經(jīng)停止了增長(zhǎng),，城鎮(zhèn)化步伐也開始放慢,，原因是已經(jīng)有這么多的人離開了農(nóng)村。更讓人擔(dān)心的是投資效率的下降,。幾年前,，GDP增長(zhǎng)一塊錢只需要一塊錢的投資,，現(xiàn)在則需要差不多四塊錢,。

????最后,，中國(guó)政府不再設(shè)法和經(jīng)濟(jì)引力抗衡。政府對(duì)刺激措施已經(jīng)有了了解,，2009年中國(guó)曾經(jīng)大舉保增長(zhǎng),、促內(nèi)需。財(cái)政赤字只占中國(guó)GDP 的2%,，大型銀行完全在政府的控制之下,，這種情況下中國(guó)政府手里有牌可打。經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也在政府的掌握之中,，因此基本上已公布的數(shù)字都很合適,。顯然，政府對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)率下滑心里有數(shù),。

????中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)一直靠借貸推動(dòng),。但還沒(méi)有跡象表明是信貸緊縮造成了目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。政府對(duì)“影子銀行”,，也就是銀行表外放貸活動(dòng)的整治可能會(huì)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)受到打擊,；作為受到政府青睞的新增流動(dòng)性衡量指標(biāo)，社會(huì)融資規(guī)模最近出現(xiàn)下降,。但能更好地體現(xiàn)GDP所受影響的6個(gè)月平均社會(huì)融資規(guī)模仍在上升,。

????For China, 2013 is becoming the year of the credible shrinking GDP growth target. Earlier in the year, the old 8% norm was shaved down to an official estimate of 7.5% by China's State Council. Last week, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei moved that to 7%, and said an even lower number was possible.

????China's slowdown is real -- but relative. While President Xi Jinping has told China's officials to worry less about GDP and more about quality of life, investors still focus on the crude indication. The official target of a 7.5%increase would already have created China's slowest growth since 1990. The official acceptance of a lower number shows that the old received wisdom -- anything below 8% puts China at risk of rising unemployment and social unrest -- has been discarded.

????For China-watchers, 6% growth sounds bizarre. It was not that long ago that double digits were normal. But by the standards of the other middle-income countries, China is still doing exceptionally well. The International Monetary Fund expects 3% GDP growth this year in both Latin America and the Middle East.

????It has three causes. First, demand for exports from China is slowing. June's 3% decline is especially weak, but the average increase over the last twelve months is the slowest rate since the beginning of 2010. A strong currency hurts, as does weak demand. But as China gets richer, it's natural that the currency rises and that exports based on cheap labor fade away.

????Second, economic gravity is catching up. The Chinese workforce is no longer increasing and the pace of urbanization is slowing because so many people have already left the farms. Of more concern is the decreasing efficiency of investment. A few years ago, only one yuan of investment was needed to add a yuan to GDP. Now it takes almost four yuan.

????Finally, the authorities are not trying to fight gravity. The government knows about stimulus; it did a huge one in 2009. With a fiscal deficit of just 2% of GDP and total control of the big banks, it has the means. It also controls the statistics, so can basically report whatever number suits. Clearly, the authorities are comfortable with lower GDP growth numbers.

????China's growth has been fueled by borrowing. But there's no sign that the slowdown has been created by a credit crunch. The official effort to rein in "shadow banking," loans that do not appear on banks' books, may hurt; and total social financing, the government's favored measure of new money pumped into the economy, has come down recently. But the six-month average of social financing, a good measure of what's affecting GDP today, is rising.