????過(guò)去10年間,，有7大公司在全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中贏得了巨大的市場(chǎng)份額。其中,，美國(guó)的幾大巨頭及其各自統(tǒng)領(lǐng)的領(lǐng)域早已廣為人知：搜索領(lǐng)域的谷歌公司（Google,，市值2,930億美元），電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域的亞馬遜公司（Amazon,，市值1,250億美元）和eBay公司（市值660億美元）,，以及社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)領(lǐng)域的Facebook公司（市值580億美元）。

????知名度稍遜一籌的另外3家公司都在中國(guó)：中國(guó)領(lǐng)先的搜索引擎百度公司（Baidu,，市值330億美元）,，電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域的江湖霸主阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba，非上市公司）,，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)及游戲領(lǐng)域首屈一指的騰訊公司（Tencent,，市值690億美元）。

????如果未來(lái)5年,，這些互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭中任何一家能繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)在的增長(zhǎng)率,，都有可能成為全球最值錢(qián)的公司,。在此期間,，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的這些超級(jí)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)必將出現(xiàn)日益激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。而在本人看來(lái),，電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)將是最重要的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng),。

電商市場(chǎng)

????部分分析師認(rèn)為，電子商務(wù)已經(jīng)是個(gè)成熟的,、充分滲透的市場(chǎng)了,，比如亞馬遜早已高調(diào)推出各種網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)及視頻流媒體，而eBay的增長(zhǎng)率也一直保持在15-20%的高位,。但這種看法太簡(jiǎn)單化了,。從全球范圍看，電子商務(wù)將成為規(guī)模極其龐大,、同時(shí)不斷擴(kuò)張的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài),。

????據(jù)美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Census Bureau）的數(shù)據(jù),，2012年美國(guó)的電子商務(wù)銷(xiāo)售總額近2,250億美元，占同期全美商品零售總額的5%以上,。美國(guó)電子商務(wù)下一個(gè)增長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域來(lái)自本地商業(yè)的“最后一英里”,，其中用于產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的零售支出中有75%是在離家15英里范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的。如果電子商務(wù)能成功占領(lǐng)這個(gè)領(lǐng)域,，那么“最后一英里”的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模在新一波機(jī)遇和增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)下可能達(dá)到美國(guó)電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)有規(guī)模的兩倍,、甚至三倍。

????而中國(guó)的電商市場(chǎng)可能將比美國(guó)電商市場(chǎng)大得多,，目前這個(gè)市場(chǎng)還只是處于第三輪或第四輪發(fā)展周期中,。去年中國(guó)的網(wǎng)購(gòu)零售收入是2,070億美元，為同期中國(guó)商品零售總額的6%,。中國(guó)的網(wǎng)民人數(shù)一直在增長(zhǎng),，而網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物的滲透率尚不及發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的一半水平。

????中國(guó)電子商務(wù)迅猛增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭還受到該國(guó)相對(duì)落后的零售基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的推動(dòng),。隨著中國(guó)直接進(jìn)入無(wú)線通信時(shí)代,，它可能會(huì)通過(guò)突飛猛進(jìn)的電商發(fā)展，跳過(guò)實(shí)體零售店的發(fā)展階段,。最近,，阿里巴巴公司富有遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)的創(chuàng)始人兼執(zhí)行主席馬云先生預(yù)言稱，未來(lái)5年中國(guó)電商滲透率可能會(huì)從今天占商品零售總額的6%猛增至30%,，即實(shí)現(xiàn)五倍增長(zhǎng),。

????Over the past 10 years, seven companies have carved out lion-sized shares of the global Internet economy. The American giants and their respective kingdoms are well-known: Google ($293 billion market cap) in search, Amazon ($125 billion) and eBay ($66 billion) in e-commerce and Facebook ($58billion) in social networking.

????Less familiar are the other three, all based in China: Baidu ($33 billion), the leading Chinese search engine; Alibaba (privately held), the dominant force in e-commerce; and Tencent ($69 billion), the principal player in social networking and gaming.

????If any of these Internet giants can maintain their growth rate over the next five years, it has the potential to become the world's most valuable company. During this period, we will see intensifying head-to-head competition within the super-segments of the Internet economy. In my view, the e-commerce market will become the most important battlefield of all.

The E-Commerce Market

????Some analysts view e-commerce as a maturing and well-penetrated market, pointing to Amazon's (AMZN) high-profile forays into web services and video streaming and eBay's growth rate, which has stabilized in the 15-20% range. Yet this perspective is too simple. E-commerce continues to present a gigantic, expanding pool of Internet economics across the globe.

????In the U.S., e-commerce was nearly $225 billion in 2012, accounting for over 5% of total U.S. retail sales, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The next frontier of U.S. e-commerce growth is within the "last mile" of local commerce, where 75% of all retail spending occurs fifteen miles from home, across both products and services. If successful, this "last mile" market could double or triple the U.S. e-commerce market in a new surge of opportunity and growth.

????In China, e-commerce has the potential to be far larger than the U.S. market and may only be in its third or fourth inning of growth. Online retail revenue in China was $207 billion last year, representing 6% of total retail spending. The population of Internet users in China continues to grow, and the penetration of online shopping in China has not even reached half the levels found in developed countries.

????This "growth on growth" characteristic of e-commerce in China is further fueled by the relative immaturity of the country's retail infrastructure. Just as China jumped straight to wireless communications, China may skip a generation of brick-and-mortar retail build-out through aggressive e-commerce adoption. Jack Ma, the visionary founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, recently predicted that e-commerce penetration in China could grow from 6% today to 30% of overall retail spending in the next five years, implying more than five-fold growth.