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蘋果和谷歌運(yùn)勢大逆轉(zhuǎn)

蘋果和谷歌運(yùn)勢大逆轉(zhuǎn)

Kevin Kelleher 2013-03-12
去年7月,,蘋果和谷歌的股價都在600美元左右,。但當(dāng)時iPhone5面世在即,,人們認(rèn)為蘋果股價漲到1000美元是早晚的事,,而谷歌的股價已經(jīng)停滯了幾年,。如今,,蘋果股價已經(jīng)降到了420多美元,,而谷歌卻飆升到800元以上,。一年間,這對老對頭的走勢發(fā)生了大逆轉(zhuǎn),。但誰也說不好這次換位能持續(xù)多久,。

????換句話說,,這兩家公司都正在發(fā)生著一些實(shí)實(shí)在在的根本性變化,但這些變化的影響正在各自的股票表現(xiàn)中被顯著放大,。正如兩年前谷歌失寵那樣,,蘋果今天可能也是如此,。正如那時那些盲目樂觀的投資者極力推崇蘋果那樣,如果谷歌股價過快上漲到1,000美元的話,,它現(xiàn)在就面臨著股票估值偏高的風(fēng)險,。

????并不是說谷歌在劫難逃,也不是說蘋果股價馬上就會反彈,。這兩家公司都將在不同的時候經(jīng)歷無所作為的低谷時期以及盈利報告大幅超預(yù)期的高潮時期,。這兩家公司都將注重于長期發(fā)展策略,繼續(xù)開發(fā)為投資者提供增長前景的項目,。

????但現(xiàn)在,,考慮到谷歌目前股價已達(dá)到其今年每股預(yù)期收益的18倍,是蘋果的兩倍,。這個數(shù)字不應(yīng)該有任何人會感到意外,,但它同時也表明,這兩家公司最近成為財經(jīng)頭版新聞的運(yùn)勢逆轉(zhuǎn)已反映在這兩家科技巨頭的股價上?,F(xiàn)在難以確定的是,,一年左右的時間之后,這兩只股票各自又會處于什么價位,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:iDo98

????In other words, there are real, fundamental changes going on at both of these companies, but the effects of those changes are greatly enhanced in the stock performance. Just as Google was underappreciated two years ago, so Apple could be today. Just as Apple was revered with blind bullishness then, so Google is at risk of being overvalued if it does reach $1,000 too quickly.

????That doesn't mean Google is doomed or that Apple is set to rebound quickly. Both of these companies are going to have, at different times, their fallow periods as well as their blowout earnings reports. Both are going to keep working on projects that will offer growth for investors with a long-term focus.

????But for now, consider that Google is trading at 18 times its expected earnings this year, double the ratio for Apple. That shouldn't surprise anyone, but it also suggests that the recent reversal of fortunes making financial headlines today are priced into both of these tech giants. What is much less certain is where they will both be in a year or so from now.

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