美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)將再度下跌

????新澤西州經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蓋瑞?謝林這一悲觀預(yù)測(cè)曾讓記者們頗感興趣。擔(dān)憂總是能成為好的頭條,，這是當(dāng)然,，而且，他也擅長(zhǎng)這么做,。問(wèn)題是,，他最看空的美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)2012年全年一直在上漲。

????謝林曾警告稱,，2012年將發(fā)生一波止贖潮,，預(yù)計(jì)將有300萬(wàn)-500萬(wàn)套房屋繼續(xù)留在影子庫(kù)存中，給市場(chǎng)造成沖擊,，影響美國(guó)總體房?jī)r(jià),。但這些預(yù)言一件也沒(méi)有發(fā)生。止贖屋入市有序，這很大程度上是因?yàn)楹芏嘀冠H都是發(fā)生在佛羅里達(dá)等需要法官批準(zhǔn)止贖的州,。就在謝林高呼2012年狼來(lái)了的時(shí)候,，房屋建筑商股價(jià)反彈，房?jī)r(jià)穩(wěn)步上漲,，美國(guó)新屋建設(shè)趕不上需求,。謝林，是時(shí)候調(diào)整看空了,。

Housing to slump, again

????Gary Shilling, an economist in New Jersey, delights journalists with his dour forecasts. Fear makes good headlines, of course, and he's good at making them. Problem is, he's been wrong on his biggest short -- U.S. housing -- all year.

????Shilling warned of a wave of foreclosures in 2012, predicting that some 3 million to 5 million homes would remain in a shadow inventory, flooding the market and hurting all U.S. home prices. But that just hasn't happened. Foreclosures are hitting markets at an orderly pace, in large part because so many foreclosures have occurred in states like Florida that require a judge to approve the process. As Shilling cried wolf in 2012, homebuilder stocks roared back, home prices steadily rose, and new homes couldn't be built fast enough in the U.S. Time for a new short, Gary.